Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueHammer85]

Be interesting to see if all the works xmas parties go ahead.

we were meant to have many over from Scandinavia for our work party's, all cancelling.

 

[FantasyIreland]

we were meant to have many over from Scandinavia for our work party's, all cancelling.

Awwww,norway!

 

[grunge]

Be interesting to see if all the works xmas parties go ahead.

We went out for a meal on Saturday the 20th and it was absolute carnage around Peter Street, at gone 11pm we couldn't even walk on the pavements to get St Peters square.

Companies may cancel but I dont think its going to stop a lot of people just going out.

 

[grunge]

Awwww,norway!

That made me Groan and laugh at the same time!.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Me too, but hard to judge from a Sunday and with the uncertainty of what Omicron will do.

We might ask if the recent big case rises have any Omicron influence but I assume not as we would have noticed the new variant otherwise. Without that yet to add in we would be in very good shape going into mid winter. The booster programme is pushing hospital numbers and deaths down.

All four nations are down week to week which is good news - England 1377, Scotland 500, Wales 445 and N Ireland by 1.

The S Gene Dropout on the Covid-19 PCR test makes it easy to spot Omnicron in PCR test data analysis. No need for the major RNA analysis on 5% of cases that takes place overnight. S-Gene dropout = highly probable Omnicon infection.
So at least it's easy to rest for.

 

[BlueAnorak]

lockdowns have caused more harm than good! some people actually think they work!

They stop 1000s of deaths in a a day.
If hospital admissions reach 2k a day. For a sustained time period of 2 weeks or so (current NHS free bed numbers) then NHS beds and ICU beds run out and the equivalent of 80%+ of those admitted die. Its that simple. That is why lockdowns happen.
No oxygen with serious Covid = death.

 

[Claytop]

SA are so off vaccination wise I'm not sure how much info we'll be able to gain from hospital admissions, deaths etc over there.

Also any new variant will have an advantage transmission wise as it's a novel one and isn't fighting any other variants for new people to infect.

 

[BlueHammer85]

They stop 1000s of deaths in a a day.
If hospital admissions reach 2k a day. For a sustained time period of 2 weeks or so (current NHS free bed numbers) then NHS beds and ICU beds run out and the equivalent of 80%+ of those admitted die. Its that simple. That is why lockdowns happen.
No oxygen with serious Covid = death.

imagine needing to explain that to someone after all this time.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Be interesting to see if all the works xmas parties go ahead.

i think we will find out soon enough if this variant is going to cause havoc.

 

[SWP's back]

They stop 1000s of deaths in a a day.
If hospital admissions reach 2k a day. For a sustained time period of 2 weeks or so (current NHS free bed numbers) then NHS beds and ICU beds run out and the equivalent of 80%+ of those admitted die. Its that simple. That is why lockdowns happen.
No oxygen with serious Covid = death.

What’s the increase in deaths and late diagnosis of cancer like over the past 20 months? And suicides? And bankruptcies?

Read back 23 months and you’ll see I’ve always been a huge advocate of playing everything very safe with lockdowns and mandates and vaccines but there’s going to come a tipping point pretty fucking soon.

What life is there if one isn’t living it.

 

[inbetween]

They stop 1000s of deaths in a a day.
If hospital admissions reach 2k a day. For a sustained time period of 2 weeks or so (current NHS free bed numbers) then NHS beds and ICU beds run out and the equivalent of 80%+ of those admitted die. Its that simple. That is why lockdowns happen.
No oxygen with serious Covid = death.

One thing to remember about hospitalisations is those figures are distorted. A hospital admission is one which occurs with a positive COVID test, it doesn't mean an admission of someone who is ill with COVID. A more interesting statistic would be excess hospitalisations vs 2019 however I'm not sure if that data is available.

The more worrying thing is as it stands excess deaths are higher than 2019 despite us having vaccines and despite both COVID related deaths and hospitalisations remaining low and stable.

Now I'm not going to infer vaccines are causing deaths, that isn't true, but clearly we are struggling in healthcare and that struggle isn't necessarily directly related to the number of COVID infections but is made worse by there being more of them.

This can't be sorted by locking down, it has to be sorted by the government properly funding and resourcing healthcare at a time of crisis.

 

[BlueAnorak]

imagine needing to explain that to someone after all this time.

You can easily work out the trajectory of what would have happened without lockdown last Jan. We would have been having 15k deaths a day by the 2nd week in Jan and then worse till herd immunity kicked in.

 

[Erik the viking]

They stop 1000s of deaths in a a day.
If hospital admissions reach 2k a day. For a sustained time period of 2 weeks or so (current NHS free bed numbers) then NHS beds and ICU beds run out and the equivalent of 80%+ of those admitted die. Its that simple. That is why lockdowns happen.
No oxygen with serious Covid = death.

tell that to the overwhelming victims of lockdowns without covid ! i get the first one but when it reached the last one it was pretty much ignored by most people once the vaccines kicked in!

 

[grunge]

One thing to remember about hospitalisations is those figures are distorted. A hospital admission is one which occurs with a positive COVID test, it doesn't mean an admission of someone who is ill with COVID. A more interesting statistic would be excess hospitalisations vs 2019 however I'm not sure if that data is available.

The more worrying thing is as it stands excess deaths are higher than 2019 despite us having vaccines and despite both COVID related deaths and hospitalisations remaining low and stable.

Now I'm not going to infer vaccines are causing deaths, that isn't true, but clearly we are struggling in healthcare and that struggle isn't necessarily directly related to the number of COVID infections but is made worse by there being more of them.

This can't be sorted by locking down, it has to be sorted by the government properly funding and resourcing healthcare at a time of crisis.

We're letting the virus run wild and its still killing people, just a lot less so because of vaccines but still deaths are happening.. we're running at about 1200 deaths a week from Covid ( on death cert, not the 28 day check ) and have been for about 3 months. So yep, entirely expected we will be running at least 1k+ higher a week than 2019.

Anything past 1200/1300 and your probably looking at other effects.

 

[crooky]

Good grief. Some of the £37bn on our "World-beating" (not) test and trace would have been better spent on vaccines for poor countries.

Or the likes of Cambridge Analytica used for better uses. Like persuading people to get vaccinated.

 

[Erik the viking]

What’s the increase in deaths and late diagnosis of cancer like over the past 20 months? And suicides? And bankruptcies?

Read back 23 months and you’ll see I’ve always been a huge advocate of playing everything very safe with lockdowns and mandates and vaccines but there’s going to come a tipping point pretty fucking soon.

What life is there if one isn’t living it.

its like everything stopped for covid! its no use trying to explain about the other side of the coin it falls on deaf ears ! we are going to have to get used to living with it instead of running from it!

 

[inbetween]

We're letting the virus run wild and its still killing people, just a lot less so because of vaccines but still deaths are happening.. we're running at about 1200 deaths a week from Covid ( on death cert, not the 28 day check ) and have been for about 3 months. So yep, entirely expected we will be running at least 1k+ higher a week than 2019.

Anything past 1200/1300 and your probably looking at other effects.

Sorry I misquoted, excess deaths this year are higher than 2020. This might be down to people being mostly locked down in 2020 but it certainly gives ammunition to the anti-vaxxers though.

The more worrying thing is there's been an excess death increase in the young who are usually completely unaffected by COVID.

 

[BlueAnorak]

One thing to remember about hospitalisations is those figures are distorted. A hospital admission is one which occurs with a positive COVID test, it doesn't mean an admission of someone who is ill with COVID. A more interesting statistic would be excess hospitalisations vs 2019 however I'm not sure if that data is available.

The more worrying thing is as it stands excess deaths are higher than 2019 despite us having vaccines and despite both COVID related deaths and hospitalisations remaining low and stable.

Now I'm not going to infer vaccines are causing deaths, that isn't true, but clearly we are struggling in healthcare and that struggle isn't necessarily directly related to the number of COVID infections but is made worse by there being more of them.

This can't be sorted by locking down, it has to be sorted by the government properly funding and resourcing healthcare at a time of crisis.

Additional deaths from untreated cancer and other conditions are kicking in. See recent ambulance crises, and It will only get worse.

 

[blueparrot]

its like everything stopped for covid! its no use trying to explain about the other side of the coin it falls on deaf ears ! we are going to have to get used to living with it instead of running from it!

Because there is no other side of the coin to hospital capacity, the more pressure on that fron covid admisions the less capacity there is for other treatments. Covid spreading is fine until it impacts on hospital capacity, then it isn't fine . The calculation is that simple.

 

[Erik the viking]

Sorry I misquoted, excess deaths this year are higher than 2020. This might be down to people being mostly locked down in 2020 but it certainly gives ammunition to the anti-vaxxers though.

The more worrying thing is there's been an excess death increase in the young who are usually completely unaffected by COVID.

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Additional deaths from untreated cancer and other conditions are kicking in. See recent ambulance crises, and It will only get

Because there is no other side of the coin to hospital capacity, the more pressure on that fron covid admisions the less capacity there is for other treatments. Covid spreading is fine until it impacts on hospital capacity, then it isn't fine . The calculation is that simple.

but hospitalizations are going down!