Coronavirus (2021) thread

[blueinsa]

If you just badly assert "it's mild, they're wrong" without any source, argument or data, then you'll get a strong pushback.

I’ve yet to see data that suggests it is worse other than statements saying it could be or might be?

Is it ok to point that out?

 

[splinter]

I see uk gone on Israel red list..

 

[Two Gun Bob]

Triple Pfizer jabbed with an extra fat portion of the good lords antibodies built up from previous incursions.
We have just been offered the Flu jab but are giving it a swerve. We are full to the napalm of defence measures and like last year do not think the flu will be prevalant enough to warrant a dose. Of course we shall evaluate the situation as the days roll by and so never say never.

 

[hammocity]

my nearest too mate, with the herberts from smallshaw lane and whiteacre rd frequenting its not that surprising tbh

You’ll know the lad I mean, fat and gay, irritates the fuck out of me, useless twat.

 

[tonea2003]

You’ll know the lad I mean, fat and gay, irritates the fuck out of me, useless twat.

yep know who you mean, mind you there are a few other suspect staff there

 

[Quad]

I hope everyone points at the telly at 8 and laughs at the daft, fuzzy haired ****.

He ok to do a quiz , just say you need help setting a computer up , and the people needed to test there eye site by driving to have a affair

then on your way back goto a party and say it’s work

 

[abu13]

Im hoping this isn't bad news regarding Peppa Pig.

 

[abu13]

Im struggling to see anything positive from Bojo addressing the nation in a pre recorded message at 8:00pm on a Sunday night, hoping things havent gone tits up.

 

[blueinsa]

Im struggling to see anything positive from Bojo addressing the nation in a pre recorded message at 8:00pm on a Sunday night, hoping things havent gone tits up.

It’s to announce we have gone to level 4 covid standing and it’s about the booster program.

No new restrictions to be announced according to reports.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Positive tests, Zoe & deaths all steady. From reports already in, positives look like going up over the next few days, but very slowly.

Actual ‘cases’ up by under 12% week on week but tests up by over 13% week on week and this new variant is doubling every 2/3 days? Something isn’t quite right with this picture, given the doomsday scenario we are allegedly facing…

 

[grunge]

.

Positive tests, Zoe & deaths all steady. From reports already in, positives look like going up over the next few days, but very slowly.

Actual ‘cases’ up by under 12% week on week but tests up by over 13% week on week and this new variant is doubling every 2/3 days? Something isn’t quite right with this picture, given the doomsday scenario we are allegedly facing…

Cases wise. From what we saw with delta.

While a new variant is overtaking an existing it’s eating at the cases that would have been the older variants cases. As in 1000 omicron cases could have been 750 delta so only an increase of 250 cases.

 

[Gabriel]

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I’ve yet to see data that suggests it is worse other than statements saying it could be or might be?

Is it ok to point that out?

It's OK to say anything, but if it's opinion stated as fact without evidence it'll get strong disagreement.

I agree with you that there no convincing evidence it's worse.

 

[blueinsa]

It's OK to say anything, but if it's opinion stated as fact without evidence it'll get strong disagreement.

I agree with you that there no convincing evidence it's worse.

Then show me the factual evidence that proves Omicron will lead to between 25 and 75 thousand deaths as things stand?

Right now I’m saying that is also just an opinion and not really based on anything we currently know or can see if this new variant.

 

[Healdplace]

I agree that as of now the doubling every other day fears in the UK are yet to be realised. We are not seeing an increase any more dramatic than we did this time last year with the wave going into mid Winter and have far fewer patients in hospital and in most places numbers falling not rising. Which is a good place to be in and can only be down to so far the vaccines working to some degree.

But it seems unrealistic to expect no impact from this more infective variant. However, I am hopeful the worst fears will not be realised. But we do have to be ready in case they start to look as if they are. Right now the booster has to be our best defence and hope of minimising any problems. It is obviously the right thing to do to maximise this on the basis it may get really bad out there pretty fast. And hope those who think so are wrong. Far better though to be wrong and be too cautious for a week or two preparimg for the worst than in a hole we cannot dig out of because we were too cocky and prepared for only the best.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Then show me the factual evidence that proves Omicron will lead to between 25 and 75 thousand deaths as things stand?

Right now I’m saying that is also just an opinion and not really based on anything we currently know or can see if this new variant.

Good luck with that. Remember Roubiaxtuesday couldnt being himself to admit that all Sage's predictions for the Autumn wave that never materialised were massively wide of the mark, even their best case scenario. As others have pointed out he is clearly a glass half full person despite being knowledgeable in the field.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Then show me the factual evidence that proves Omicron will lead to between 25 and 75 thousand deaths as things stand?

Right now I’m saying that is also just an opinion and not really based on anything we currently know or can see if this new variant.

Proof is for mathematics and whisky.

Evidence is here

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/omicron_england/report_11_dec_2021.pdf

Including sensitivity analysis vs assumptions.

Have a ball.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Good luck with that. Remember Roubiaxtuesday couldnt being himself to admit that all Sage's predictions for the Autumn wave that never materialised were massively wide of the mark, even their best case scenario. As others have pointed out he is clearly a glass half full person despite being knowledgeable in the field.

We've been over this. You refuse to accept the words of the report and claim they mean something different to what they state

 

[blueinsa]

Proof is for mathematics and whisky.

Evidence is here

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/omicron_england/report_11_dec_2021.pdf

Including sensitivity analysis vs assumptions.

Have a ball.

First line……..potential……

So no proof, just opinions, a model that is being questioned yes?

 

[cleavers]

Positive tests, Zoe & deaths all steady. From reports already in, positives look like going up over the next few days, but very slowly.

Actual ‘cases’ up by under 12% week on week but tests up by over 13% week on week and this new variant is doubling every 2/3 days? Something isn’t quite right with this picture, given the doomsday scenario we are allegedly facing…

The problem here is that the number of cases at the moment are still vastly "delta" cases, and they are relatively flat, but within that number, "if" the new variant is doubling every 2 days, it goes 6, 12, 25, 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3000, 6000, 12000, 25000, 50000, 100000, in 15 days, and we only knew about this variant really about 12 days ago (yet is was likely already here), and as it was at about 6 at that point, the new variant is currently still in the background noise of delta, but it won't be for much longer if the scientists are correct.

That is just case numbers, and we have no way of knowing yet how many are going to end up in hospital, which could be 7 days behind that, or dead, maybe another 14 days behind that, or how good the vaccines will prove against, I think much of the "news" about that is still guess work, but its encouraging that SA seem to think there hasn't been a major surge in hospitalisations, whare vaccinations are well below those here.