Coronavirus (2021) thread

[SWP's back]

On the severity of omicron thing, an attempt to explain why it will probably seem less severe without actually being less severe. Model figures, not real ones.

Currently, if there are 100 hospitalizations, that comes from 10,000 reported infections (1% hit rate for severe disease). Assume 50:50 vaxxed: unvaxxed.

90% of people are vaxxed, so those 50 vaxxed hospitalizations are from 9,000 reported cases (0.5% hit rate), whereas the 50 unvaxxed comes from just 1,000 (5% hit rate).

Now, omicron comes along. It transmits much faster, but the reason for that is that it infects vaxxed people as well as unvaxxed. But assume the protection against hospitalisation from vaccination is the same.

So, let's say we get 40,000 more infections (4x more transmissible), but all of the reason for that increase is that they've been vaxxed and would previously have been completely protected. Those additional 40,000 still have good protection against severe disease (same 0.5% hit rate as before) so we only get a further 200 hospitalizations.

So the total now is 50,000 cases, 300 hospitalizations. 0.6% hit rate.

Voilà. The severity appears reduced from 1% hospitalisation to 0.6%, even though the virus is as severe as ever in any given case.

Because the proportion of vaxxed cases is much higher.

No idea if this makes any sense to anyone else, but it does to me.

And of course, it's not as simple as this as immunity is more complex than just "vaxxed or unvaxxed". But hopefully it explains why some people are saying it's less severe, whilst others saying no evidence for change. Both can be right, depending on exactly what they mean.

Makes sense to me yes. Although the SA figures show it seems less severe and with a CFA of 0.054% ( ie half of normal flu’s 0.1%).

 

[Gabriel]

Italy is keeping restrictions in place until March 31st, the Netherlands is closing primary schools this Friday, a week early, and Norway is keeping bars and restaurants open but prohibiting the sale of alcohol. It‘s a wonderful world!

 

[lee_wsm]

What is the logic of the Modena boost being only half a dose, is this just to get more people jabbed.

 

[Gabriel]

What is the logic of the Modena boost being only half a dose, is this just to get more people jabbed.

‘In early trials of Moderna vaccine, participants received one of three dose levels – 25mcg, 100mcg, and 250mcg. The highest dose proved to be too toxic, while the lowest dose elicited the weakest immune response. The 100mcg dose appeared to offer the best balance, triggering strong immunity with acceptable side effects. This 100mcg dose eventually became the one authorized for mass usage across the world.

However, Moderna researchers later found that a 50mcg half-dose could be as effective at stimulating immunity as the full dose. To find out if the low dose offered strong protection, scientists analyzed blood from 35 volunteers who had received two 25mcg shots 28 days apart.

Six months after the second jab, nearly all 35 volunteers had developed “neutralizing” antibodies that block the virus from infecting healthy cells. The volunteers’ blood also contained an armada of different T-cells – “killer” cells that destroy infected cells and a variety of “helper” cells that aid in the development of immunity.’

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/full-dose-or-half-dose-clearing-up-confusion-over-moderna-boosters/

 

[Bluesince1979]

I

Marcus, do you know if this is across the board with care homes or it's just the policy your nanna's one has introduced?
I was planning on seeing my mum between Christmas and New Year but thought I'd telephone and ask the home nearer the time.

Sorry im not sure. I will say that Marion Lauder in Wythenshawe, where she is , have been very strict since day one and went into lock down way back when a good couple of weeks before it became mandatory across the board.

sorry no help

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

 

[blueinsa]

We're facing a virus that's out of control (until in burns itself out). We're fortunate to have a vaccine but if we didn't, social isolation, and quarantine would be the only way. Historically quarantine is how people dealt with infection. There is no principle against that that's worth arguing for.

How would you have dealt with Covid without a vaccine? I am sure you will come up with something good with the benefit of hindsight

But we do have vaccines and we do have antiviral pills and we do have even more drugs about to come on line described as game changing….

 

[blueinsa]

I watched that while working. She was very positive. The thing that stood out most to me was that the politicians on the committee behaved like adults and were polite to each other. It was very odd.

Trust me, that is as far from the norm as you could possibly go.

 

[blueinsa]

On the severity of omicron thing, an attempt to explain why it will probably seem less severe without actually being less severe. Model figures, not real ones.

Currently, if there are 100 hospitalizations, that comes from 10,000 reported infections (1% hit rate for severe disease). Assume 50:50 vaxxed: unvaxxed.

90% of people are vaxxed, so those 50 vaxxed hospitalizations are from 9,000 reported cases (0.5% hit rate), whereas the 50 unvaxxed comes from just 1,000 (5% hit rate).

Now, omicron comes along. It transmits much faster, but the reason for that is that it infects vaxxed people as well as unvaxxed. But assume the protection against hospitalisation from vaccination is the same.

So, let's say we get 40,000 more infections (4x more transmissible), but all of the reason for that increase is that they've been vaxxed and would previously have been completely protected. Those additional 40,000 still have good protection against severe disease (same 0.5% hit rate as before) so we only get a further 200 hospitalizations.

So the total now is 50,000 cases, 300 hospitalizations. 0.6% hit rate.

Voilà. The severity appears reduced from 1% hospitalisation to 0.6%, even though the virus is as severe as ever in any given case.

Because the proportion of vaxxed cases is much higher.

No idea if this makes any sense to anyone else, but it does to me.

And of course, it's not as simple as this as immunity is more complex than just "vaxxed or unvaxxed". But hopefully it explains why some people are saying it's less severe, whilst others saying no evidence for change. Both can be right, depending on exactly what they mean.

You are seemingly desperate for it not to be less severe?

Omicron has been known of since October. It will have been here for a lot longer than a few weeks. As of this morning, 9 in hospital, none in ICU and none in ventilation.

You must have your own reasons for the negativity but you are becoming increasingly isolated in your view and stance thankfully.

 

[andyhinch]

You are seemingly desperate for it not to be less severe?

Omicron has been known of since October. It will have been here for a lot longer than a few weeks. As of this morning, 9 in hospital, none in ICU and none in ventilation.

You must have your own reasons for the negativity but you are becoming increasingly isolated in your view and stance thankfully.

Talking to people who know about these sort of things, I get the feeling it’ll burn very brightly then burn out as quickly, but it’s not in the realms of my expertise.