Whilst this is definitely in need of discussion, it’s not exclusively an NHS problem.We have been protecting the NHS in winter for years now and long before covid came along.
A grown up discussion is urgently needed now re how we fund/run the NHS because doomsday scenarios and restrictions/lockdowns is not the answer.
You apply your model to previous epidemics.
If your modelling is any good you actual cases get closer to the median prediction for each successive wave.
Your upper quartile represents the outcome under which are 75% of your model's predicted outcomes occur and the lower quartile represents the outcome under which 25% of your model's predicted outcomes fall.
I can see the need for a worst case outcome (say 95%) but all of these outcomes should be in your model.
Only modelling the worst case is a grand folly as it indicates the model is an exercise in crying wolf - so it is ignored by many. But as the story goes the boy who cried wolf can be right very occasionally.
The CFR of covid, let alone omicron when triple jabbed and young and fit is considerably lower than a bout of influenza would be and I’m not eligible for the flu jab every winter. I don’t live in fear of that influenza either.Which could be proven correct or incorrect.
I think it’s potentially dangerous that people are beginning to believe they are now immune to Covid.
Which could be proven correct or incorrect.
I think it’s potentially dangerous that people are beginning to believe they are now immune to Covid.
Whilst this is definitely in need of discussion, it’s not exclusively an NHS problem.
Healthcare systems across Europe are struggling.
Covid has hit them harder than anything they’ve faced in a long time, if at all.
prevent more than 20 life-threatening diseases,Prevents. Deaths.
you’re own post. You didn’t even read it.
Me too. It’s still prudent to be cautious in my opinion.The CFR of covid, let alone omicron when triple jabbed and young and fit is considerably lower than a bout of influenza would be and I’m not eligible for the flu jab every winter. I don’t live in fear of that influenza either.
I shall continue to get whatever jab I’m told I need to have but I am well past being afraid of covid or any of its current variants.
Likewise. You didn't read it.Prevents. Deaths.
you’re own post. You didn’t even read it.
But you won’t be actively seeking to get it, and no doubt trying your best not to.I don’t for one second believe I’m immune after my 3 jabs but I’m happy to think that even infected, it’s going to be a mild illness because the stats tells me that’s the likely scenario. Could it kill me? Of course it could but I’m not going to live my life worrying when it’s so unlikely.
Me too. It’s still prudent to be cautious in my opinion.
I do look after my 94 year old gran too.
She doesn’t think so! “Nothing works like it should”. “Anyone got a spare skeleton?”A magnificent age ;-)
But you won’t be actively seeking to get it, and no doubt trying your best not to.
The report was in September and about October and they called for a lockdown or there would be 200k per positives per day (of delta).
We took no measures. Your enboldened post above is a pure fiction and bears no relation to the facts in hand.
Ha, couldn’t make it up.
I‘d had a couple of sneezes and ever so slightly snotty, both kids have had a cold so assumed it was that, feel right as rain and strong as an ox.
Know I’m due to see my mum and in-laws this week so to shut the missus up I thought I’d best do a test, 100% confident I don’t have omicron.
Yep, you guessed it, positive.
Ah well, c’est la vie.
I’m right as rain, lol.Get well soon mate.
How long did it take you show symptoms? Tested positive myself but other than a slightly sore back not really got any symptoms, just wondering if they are still to come.
There is plenty of hard data available from South Africa and every day more in the UK.I seem to recall our initial modelling was based on the virus acting like the flu which we had data on, then we discovered it didn’t act like the flu because it wasn’t the flu and scrapped it.
With any unknown pathogen and a lack of hard data, I think the hardest thing people struggle with is the fact we are not in control and modelling is an attempt to take back control and quantify the risk. That modelling can often fall short or be overtaken by events or even be just plain bollocks is something we find difficult to accept.
Hence conspiracy theories, religion and all other manner of crazy looking for ‘the truth’, I guess.
I’m in a philosophical mood :)