Coronavirus (2022) thread

[Tim of the Oak]

Lots of great contributions to this thread (particularly from Healdplace). The only person I can recall being spot on, all the time they posted, was the ICU Consultant.

i am not too bothered about SAGE overstating the risks as the pandemic wore on because there had been far too much complacency t the start that resulted in tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Our lack of workforce capacity and hospital beds meant we have very little wriggle room and we were helped helped by a mild winter (so far) that meant we could handle, in the main, the rapidly spreading but milder Omicron variant.

 

[Indaparkside]

Lots of great contributions to this thread (particularly from Healdplace). The only person I can recall being spot on, all the time they posted, was the ICU Consultant.

i am not too bothered about SAGE overstating the risks as the pandemic wore on because there had been far too much complacency t the start that resulted in tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Thank you Mr epidemiologist your input has been most refreshing













:)

 

[Healdplace]

The only person I can recall being spot on, all the time they posted, was the ICU Consultant.

Usually in a situation like this the only people who are right all the time are those who can see the future or those who remember the past differently from everyone else.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Thank you Mr epidemiologist your input has been most refreshing













:)

Thanks Inda. Predictions by their nature are usually wrong.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Usually in a situation like this the only people who are right all the time are those who can see the future or those who remember the past differently from everyone else.

I think the only prediction he made was that there would be more than one wave.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Usually in a situation like this the only people who are right all the time are those who can see the future or those who remember the past differently from everyone else.

FWIW, I fell for the Government’s patter at the start that herd immunity (without vaccination) wasn’t the primary strategy.

 

[Healdplace]

I think the only prediction he made was that there would be more than one wave.

That is wise, and just to be clear I was not meaning anyone specifically just that generally we are all guessing in one way or another about the future track of a novel disease.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Lots of great contributions to this thread (particularly from Healdplace). The only person I can recall being spot on, all the time they posted, was the ICU Consultant.

i am not too bothered about SAGE overstating the risks as the pandemic wore on because there had been far too much complacency t the start that resulted in tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Our lack of workforce capacity and hospital beds meant we have very little wriggle room and we were helped helped by a mild winter (so far) that meant we could handle, in the main, the rapidly spreading but milder Omicron variant.

Well said, lots of great contributions especially from Healdplace.

I mentioned the SAGE modelling as im just staggered that they get it wrong so often and continue to get it wrong. Remember the figures I quoted were their best case scenario. The others were far more calamitous.

I reserve my criticism only for the modellers, the science behind the vaccines has without a doubt been amazing and those involved deserve all the plaudits they get.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

Pandemic is over, and I expect Prime Minister to announce as much when Plan B restrictions expire end of this month. No more covid restrictions, no more masks…..it’s time to get post-Brexit U.K. PLC moving.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Analogy (as posted previously on other thread):

If you decide not to pack an emergency chute and your sky dive ends safely nonetheless, does that vindicate the lack of emergency chute, or was it reckless?

Observations:

1) the stuff about ignoring SA was, and remains bollocks. I've posted links repeatedly here from SA scientists and UK showing it. Repeating a false narrative does not make it true.

2) 30 NHS trusts have triggered critical incidents.

3) If you find yourself of the opinion that you know better than all the experts, you're either a genius or you've not understood the subject. The latter, I humbly suggest, might be more likely.

Regardless, the track of the disease is very positive right now. Long may it remain so.

1. Give over. The UK modelling was so wrong - 6,000 to 10,000 hospitalisations a day. Actual worst numbers around 2500. I can't recall a figure worse than 2,450. At least 45% of these were admitted for another reason but tested positive after admittal
2. Staff off sick. Bad, but our hospitals were not overloaded with patients.
3. I believe the data - which is clear for both SA and the UK - way lower in virullence than the Private Frazer predictions from SAGE modellers before Christmas.

The modelling has actually improved this time round, but only for infection rates. Virullence is just way off.