Coronavirus (2022) thread

[splinter]

I wonder when we'll stop counting cases..can't be far off

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Plan B taken forward for several weeks.

Cases Peak: 600,000 to 2 million per day. Timing: Late December 2021 to January 2022.

Hospitalisations Peak: 3,000 to 10,000 admissions per day. Timing: January to February 2022. Shape: increase over December and January to peak, declining over March to April 2022.

Deaths Peak: 600 to 6,000 deaths per day. Timing: Mid-January to mid-March 2022.

This is SAGEs best case scenario for the continuation of Plan B, Published on the 15th Dec. People can draw their own conclusions. But its very difficult to argue that this is anything but way off the mark so far. Unless you like to argue that is?! :-)

 

[Chappie]

The linear scale visually demonstrates a powerful how measures the vaccines have severely weakened the link between the measures, is my take.

Check Dr John Campbell on YouTube he showed this graph and explained its meaning, either last night or the day before

 

[Meatbag]

Optimism is all very well, but the calls of “it’s over” are wishful thinking. It isn’t over just because you’re fed up of it, we’re all fed up of it. But to just become complacent and pretend it’s not an issue anymore isn’t the answer, and no I don’t have the answer, I just hope that this relentless disaster movie plot has a happy ending sooner rather than later.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Optimism is all very well, but the calls of “it’s over” are wishful thinking. It isn’t over just because you’re fed up of it, we’re all fed up of it. But to just become complacent and pretend it’s not an issue anymore isn’t the answer, and no I don’t have the answer, I just hope that this relentless disaster movie plot has a happy ending sooner rather than later.

Definitely not for other parts of the World but over here in the UK it certainly feels like it’s coming to an end - all restrictions soon to be lifted , unless a new Variant appears then we are at the finishing line

 

[BlueAnorak]

Plan B taken forward for several weeks.

Cases Peak: 600,000 to 2 million per day. Timing: Late December 2021 to January 2022.

Hospitalisations Peak: 3,000 to 10,000 admissions per day. Timing: January to February 2022. Shape: increase over December and January to peak, declining over March to April 2022.

Deaths Peak: 600 to 6,000 deaths per day. Timing: Mid-January to mid-March 2022.

This is SAGEs best case scenario for the continuation of Plan B, Published on the 15th Dec. People can draw their own conclusions. But its very difficult to argue that this is anything but way off the mark so far. Unless you like to argue that is?! :-)

To be fair, their infection model is a lot better this time round. Sadly, yet again, the virulence model is totally to cock.
It really wasn't that difficult to compare Delta and Omicron in SA and use that is the basis of the model. But no, they didn't.
Sadly, continually crying wolf has consequences.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The linear scale visually demonstrates a powerful how measures the vaccines have severely weakened the link between the measures, is my take.

I wholeheartedly agree with that conclusion - though I think the log plot shows it more clearly, as you can see it consistently across the waves regardless of their magnitude.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Plan B taken forward for several weeks.

Cases Peak: 600,000 to 2 million per day. Timing: Late December 2021 to January 2022.

Hospitalisations Peak: 3,000 to 10,000 admissions per day. Timing: January to February 2022. Shape: increase over December and January to peak, declining over March to April 2022.

Deaths Peak: 600 to 6,000 deaths per day. Timing: Mid-January to mid-March 2022.

This is SAGEs best case scenario for the continuation of Plan B, Published on the 15th Dec. People can draw their own conclusions. But its very difficult to argue that this is anything but way off the mark so far. Unless you like to argue that is?! :-)

Read the document that comes with it, which sets out the assumptions and uncertainties. Most notably, on severity.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It really wasn't that difficult to compare Delta and Omicron in SA and use that is the basis of the model

Funny to read this, despite the fact

(1) nobody actually did that at the time and
(2) the SA health agency published a report just last week, posted on here, saying it was still not possible now!

 

[BlueAnorak]

There have always been incidental admissions and deaths. You'd expect them to be proportional to prevalence.

Which part of what I posted specifically do you disagree with, or do you purely wish to express inchoate rage - shouting doesn't make make you correct.

My daughter (CofE Consultant) says incidental admissions were around 10% in Jan 2021 and a lot of the elderly admitted this way subsequently became very ill. Nothing like that this time