Optimism is all very well, but the calls of “it’s over” are wishful thinking. It isn’t over just because you’re fed up of it, we’re all fed up of it. But to just become complacent and pretend it’s not an issue anymore isn’t the answer, and no I don’t have the answer, I just hope that this relentless disaster movie plot has a happy ending sooner rather than later.
Its straightforward for a mathematician - you line up the start points on infection and away you go. It's called Curve Fitting and Least Square Analysis - the last of which you yourself described very well before Christmas!Funny to read this, despite the fact
(1) nobody actually did that at the time and
(2) the SA health agency published a report just last week, posted on here, saying it was still not possible now!
Definitely not for other parts of the World but over here in the UK it certainly feels like it’s coming to an end - all restrictions soon to be lifted , unless a new Variant appears then we are at the finishing line
Its straightforward for a mathematician - you line up the start points on infection and away you go. It's called Curve Fitting and Least Square Analysis - the last of which you described very well before Christmas!
I think we may be at an Alamein moment:
"Now this is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
How it goes from here depends both on what we do, and what the virus does, and neither are remotely predictable.
I saw this today, and it made sense to me.
Haha you must be the most miserable sod on this website.
There’s definitely people being over optimistic but that’s completely natural that people have hope when things look up after a complete shitter of a 2 years.
But people being overly pessimistic and desperate to prove things are worse than they are is what I cannot understand.
“De Bruyne’s finish was ok and all but it wasn’t right in the corner and he stumbled a bit just before he hit it”I think you've misunderstood my post completely.
lol“De Bruyne’s finish was ok and all but it wasn’t right in the corner and he stumbled a bit just before he hit it”
roubaixtuesday if you posted in the City part of the website XD
Well the report is full of caveats but these are the numbers its concludes with. Neil Fergusson's numbers were actually far worse. The problem with getting your forecasts so wrong so often is that those in power will start to expect them to be wrong and possibly ignore them as routine. The actual threats posed by the next variant is now more likley to be dissmissed imo. Its not a good situation. I hope someone in government or the Civil Service will be questioning the conclusions drawn up by SAGE so that lessons can be learned.To be fair, their infection model is a lot better this time round. Sadly, yet again, the virulence model is totally to cock.
It really wasn't that difficult to compare Delta and Omicron in SA and use that is the basis of the model. But no, they didn't.
Sadly, continually crying wolf has consequences.
Quite.Well the report is full of caveats but these are the numbers its concludes with. Neil Fergusson's numbers were actually far worse. The problem with getting your forecasts so wrong so often is that those in power will start to expect them to be wrong and possibly ignore them as routine. The actual threats posed by the next variant is now more likley to be dissmissed imo. Its not a good situation. I hope someone in government or the Civil Service will be questioning the conclusions drawn up by SAGE so that lessons can be learned.