You'l have problems comparing the new case rate given that the testing volume has changed significantly over the last 3 months.I’d hope not to be honest.
When we went into lockdown and stopped fans from attending, we were having no more than 36 deaths a day and there were around 500 new cases a day... we are still now having over 150 deaths a day on some days and are still over 500 new cases a day pretty much every day.
We may well be past the peak but we’re actually still in a far worse situation than we were when we went into lockdown. Nobody seems to be grasping this as this weird, and incorrect, notion that things are better now seems to have swept the nation just because the Premier League and the Govt think money needs to get rolling again.
And the worldwide new cases a day is constantly growing, it’s never been higher than this week.
I’m still acting like the initial lockdown is in place. I’m still working from home, still only leaving the flat to get food or to exercise once a day, still not seeing any family or friends. I don’t care that the govt have lifted some restrictions, because it’s not time to from a medical standpoint even if it is from an economic one.
If you look at the stats over the last two weeks, we are actually looking like deaths in this country are starting to plateau and may even possibly start going up again.
In the UK the rate of decline of mortality is slowing because there are less active cases. As the number of active cases falls, the change in the number of deaths gets smaller and hence the gradient of the curve falls. It may well go up in the future, but if you look at the data in isolation, there's nothing it it which suggests an uptick in mortality.