NorCalBlue
Well-Known Member
City might not win a major trophy this year. I hope we do, but we might not. There are many possible explanations for this, including; Mancini’s man-management, misfiring strikers, key injuries/absences, 3-5-2, last summer’s transfer window, and even plain bad luck (see virtually every Bluemoon thread of the past 7 months for many more…). It’s impossible to test most of these explanations to see how true they are, but if you believe that luck has played a big part, you can use stats to see if the suggestion is at least reasonable.
So the question is this; what’s the probability of us winning no major trophy, even if we’re a really good team that has a decent chance in every competition? Here are my (very arguable) estimates of our chances in each competition; League – 40 %, FA Cup – 30 %, League Cup – 20 %, Champs League – 10 %. If these are accurate, then the probability of us winning nothing is 30 % (about the same as throwing a dice and getting a 1 or a 2; unlikely, but not hugely surprising). Bear in mind that these odds would see us winning 4 Premier League titles, 3 FA Cups, 2 League Cups, and one Champions’ League in 10 years, and yet in any given season, there’s still a pretty good chance of winning nothing, assuming we’re exactly as good every season. In this scenario, there’s no reason to panic or fire anyone if we have a season in which we don’t win a trophy – just keep doing the same things (throwing that dice) and if the odds stay the same, we’ll win our share in the long run.
This got me thinking about United from 1992-3 to 2011-12, and also Liverpool from 1972-3 to 1991-2. In both cases, it’s possible to calculate their probability of winning each major trophy over that 20-year period of dominance. For United it’s; League – 60 %, FA Cup – 20 %, League Cup – 15 %, Champs League – 10 %, and for Liverpool; League – 55 %, FA Cup – 20 %, League Cup – 20 %, Champs League – 20 %. When I saw these numbers it reminded me why I hated Liverpool so much growing up in the 70’s and 80’s, and why I’m so glad I moved to the US in 1993! It’s also weird how similar the probabilities are for these teams over such a long period of time. Yet even with these statistics and our memories of how dominant these teams were (are), the probability of United winning nothing in any given season is still 24 % (and they have had 5 trophyless years in the last 20), and for Liverpool, the probability of a trophyless season was 23 % (and they had 4 of them in their 20 year heyday).
So even if we’re approaching (or have achieved) the same level of play as these two behemoths, we should still expect to win nothing every 3-4 years, on average. This obviously doesn’t prove that the hypothesis; “we’re a really good team that has a decent chance in every competition, and have just been unlucky this year” is true, but one "bad" season doesn’t mean we can rule it out either.
So the question is this; what’s the probability of us winning no major trophy, even if we’re a really good team that has a decent chance in every competition? Here are my (very arguable) estimates of our chances in each competition; League – 40 %, FA Cup – 30 %, League Cup – 20 %, Champs League – 10 %. If these are accurate, then the probability of us winning nothing is 30 % (about the same as throwing a dice and getting a 1 or a 2; unlikely, but not hugely surprising). Bear in mind that these odds would see us winning 4 Premier League titles, 3 FA Cups, 2 League Cups, and one Champions’ League in 10 years, and yet in any given season, there’s still a pretty good chance of winning nothing, assuming we’re exactly as good every season. In this scenario, there’s no reason to panic or fire anyone if we have a season in which we don’t win a trophy – just keep doing the same things (throwing that dice) and if the odds stay the same, we’ll win our share in the long run.
This got me thinking about United from 1992-3 to 2011-12, and also Liverpool from 1972-3 to 1991-2. In both cases, it’s possible to calculate their probability of winning each major trophy over that 20-year period of dominance. For United it’s; League – 60 %, FA Cup – 20 %, League Cup – 15 %, Champs League – 10 %, and for Liverpool; League – 55 %, FA Cup – 20 %, League Cup – 20 %, Champs League – 20 %. When I saw these numbers it reminded me why I hated Liverpool so much growing up in the 70’s and 80’s, and why I’m so glad I moved to the US in 1993! It’s also weird how similar the probabilities are for these teams over such a long period of time. Yet even with these statistics and our memories of how dominant these teams were (are), the probability of United winning nothing in any given season is still 24 % (and they have had 5 trophyless years in the last 20), and for Liverpool, the probability of a trophyless season was 23 % (and they had 4 of them in their 20 year heyday).
So even if we’re approaching (or have achieved) the same level of play as these two behemoths, we should still expect to win nothing every 3-4 years, on average. This obviously doesn’t prove that the hypothesis; “we’re a really good team that has a decent chance in every competition, and have just been unlucky this year” is true, but one "bad" season doesn’t mean we can rule it out either.