COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Next week NY state doing an antibody survey. It will be very interesting to see what their immunity rate is. They probably had the highest rate of infection of any metropolitan area.
 
Marvin said:
Yes. The capability is being rammed up all the time.
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Ha. I’ve got a bridge to sell you. Florida just reopened beaches on the day they had the most confirmed infections. Other States are seeing protests because gyms are closed and 20% of the population believe Bill Gates started this to take their fucking guns. You need to stop believing Trump. Beyond naive.
 
Marvin said:
Yes. The capability is being rammed up all the time.
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SebastianBlue said:
I am not having a go at you, as I appreciate your positive mindset and wish you were correct. But by all accounts the death rate is being substantially undercounted here (as it is in the UK and many other places). But that is not even the issue.

The problem is the severe case rate and unconfirmed cases that led to deaths are also being significantly undercounted. And most areas in the US have not yet reached their peak, whilst PPE is actually becoming more scarce for health workers, which many public health experts are predicting will lead to a spike in health worker deaths over the next month (further reducing capacity for treatment). It’s also of course warming in many places here and at home (UK, Spain for me), which will see many more people breaking lockdown and social distancing rules (with conflicting evidence as to whether the higher temperatures will actually slow viral transmission). Several places in Florida reopened beaches on Friday and they were quite literally overflowing yesterday, despite social distancing guidelines (and that’s after a measurable spike in cases that was traced to “spring break” festivities in the state in March).

Also, it is not a economic analysis thread, so I won’t go in to detail, but the damage to the US economy already caused by the virus and the (necessary) response is severe. It is exposing the frailties, inequalities, and outright falsities of the system that existed before the pandemic (though, unfortunately, the virus gives a convenient excuse to say everything was “fine”), just as it is doing at home (our economy is perhaps in an even worse state for various reasons, some touched on in earlier posts). Our and the American economies (and China’s) are not likely to bounce back quickly, unfortunately — nearly all internal and external growth, liquidity, and production forecasts attest to that. And that spells hardship for the rest of the world.

I know some say I am doom monger, but I am really just trying to provide a realistic, evidence-based perspective, in contrast to certain elements in our society that seemingly want to ignore all evidence in favour of the reality they wish to exist, at the extreme detriment of all.

The only way we get through this is by coming together, seeing the world for what it actually is, understanding what has actually happened and is happening, and then making brave decisions to mitigate the issues and support each other.

It is going to get worse before it gets better... but the latter only happens with open eyes, clear minds, and full hearts.
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Trouble is we don't yet know if the cure is worse than the disease . Given that the world net daily population grows an unsustainable 220,000 it seems maybe nature tries to redress this uncontrolled human growth. After a few months of lockdown no doubt that daily figure will spike dramatically.
 
Marvin said:
Test and trace is the centre-piece of the USA's exit from lockdown, South Korea etc. It will choke off the virus and is doing in those countries which are executing it, however, I think the UK is reluctant to do it too soon. I think they would like to keep the infection rate relatively high so that immunity is acquired but at the same time they want to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. Once we've got a significant amount on infection in society I think they want to keep the infection ticking a long at a steady rate. That way we are closer to acquiring immunity. I don't agree with this approach but I think it is what they are up to because it explains everything we see them doing, or not doing.

Did you see that the Swedish epidemiologist is claiming that Stockholm maybe close to acquiring immunity? I don't believe that. They have still been social distancing but just not as strongly as other countries.
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Hospital Dmissions in Sweeden have dropped dramatically in the last few days. So he may be right. Thier approach wouldn't work here though as this country is too densly populated.
 
Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and one of the experts advising the government on its COVID-19 response, said he was "optimistic" that one could be found
But he told Sky's Sophy Ridge on Sunday that there was no guarantee.
"The truth is we don't have a vaccine for any other human coronavirus - common cold, SARS, MERS - and so it's not a given that we will make a vaccine," Sir Jeremy said

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-developing-a-vaccine-against-covid-19-is-not-a-given-11975532
 
nellyonthewing said:
Trouble is we don't yet know if the cure is worse than the disease . Given that the world net daily population grows an unsustainable 220,000 it seems maybe nature tries to redress this uncontrolled human growth. After a few months of lockdown no doubt that daily figure will spike dramatically.
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Nature doesn’t try and do anything.
 
SWP's back said:
You honestly believe the States has the capability and the will to do that.
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They are testing 150,000 people a day at the moment and are looking to double this by the end if April and to ramp this up to 500,000 a day by mid May. They have the medical production capability to do this so yes I think they will.
 
BlueAnorak said:
They are testing 150,000 people a day at the moment and are looking to double this by the end if April and to ramp this up to 500,000 a day by mid May. They have the medical production capability to do this so yes I think they will.
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where have you read 1/2m a day?
 
karen7 said:
Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and one of the experts advising the government on its COVID-19 response, said he was "optimistic" that one could be found
But he told Sky's Sophy Ridge on Sunday that there was no guarantee.
"The truth is we don't have a vaccine for any other human coronavirus - common cold, SARS, MERS - and so it's not a given that we will make a vaccine," Sir Jeremy said

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-developing-a-vaccine-against-covid-19-is-not-a-given-11975532
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I maybe wrong here, in fact I probably am, but were we not well on the way towards a vaccibe for MERS/SARS? I thought that they were abandoned as both viruses died out and it was not worth the expense in pursuing any longer.

This is a different ball game and it will be financially worth it for any establishment to cone up with a vaccine. I have not seen any person in the know say that it would be impossible to make a vaccine.
 
Latest I heard from Dr. Birx who's been advising Trump (or trying to) is that getting the virus and recovering from it might not give immunity after all. Lots of hopes have been pinned on this but they just don't know yet. Might have to wait for a vaccine that's coming - in a year or so. Better stock up on supplies again.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Medical experts are saying they need it to crush the virus and for Trump to deliver on opening up the economy again without a new spike, I think they will get it. It was a discussion on CNN.
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Yes I saw that, the Dems are saying they want that before opening up. I’ve not seen it stated anywhere that they are ramping up to that figure though.
 
[QUOTE="Marvin, post: 12605521, member: 2589]Did you see that the Swedish epidemiologist is claiming that Stockholm maybe close to acquiring immunity? I don't believe that. They have still been social distancing but just not as strongly as other countries.[/QUOTE]

I dont believe that for a second, studies in Austria predict that only 1% of the population have been exposed to the virus and they have not had dracinian lockdown laws in place.
 
mcfc_ms said:
While absolutely awful, isn’t such a drop quite positive? Or will it be another false hope from them catching up on deaths from days ago?
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Unfortunately, if it's same like previous weekends, it's just an usual underreported weekend drop. It's too early to see such a big drop in one day.
 
SebastianBlue said:
I do, as well.

But there are many examples of people — some in high positions (so with an outsized influence) — that have not and are not exercising many of these attributes. Many of those examples are not appropriate for this thread.

But some are: COVID-19 deniers or those that deny the severity of the pandemic. Or those that argue that the actions taken to mitigate the pandemic are worse than the pandemic itself (completely ignoring the direct human impact of unhindered pandemic, including severe economic damage). Or those that were advocating for delayed response in order to see how bad it would actually get (many with self-serving motives). Or those lobbing racial abuse (or worse) toward people of Asian descent. Or those disseminating conspiracy theories (some with geopolitical or racist/xenophobic connotations). Or those rejecting aid from other nations due to political conflicts. Or those that reject relevant science to this crisis outright.

Some of those examples are unfortunately becoming more prevalent now, magnified by high profile persons.

My point was that those actions do not serve the common good and the quicker we cease them and focus on the “mere words” — which are real aspirations that I and many others are doing there best to work toward and embody (to the best of our ability) — the better off we will collectively be.

By the way, as we have not spoken in sometime, I wanted to say I hope you and your family are doing well and avoiding the worst of this. We were meant to be in Switzerland to visit the missus’ family and see her best friend married next month but those plans have been postponed — perhaps we can grab a pint the next time we are there after things settle down?
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welcome back SB, we missed you.
 
DrBlueBob said:
Someone posted that Scotland had fewer per capita cases than elsewhere, obviously as a country Scotland has a lot op open spaces but it tends be windy almost perpetually. Could this contribute I wonder.
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hm, not sure. if anything wind would keep it even longer in the air. My hometown is pretty windy too and it's nothing better than other places.
 
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