COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[blueparrot]

Aha I see what you're thinking.

The 76% is based on results that have had an ending.

So of 568 UK cases that have ended there's been 433 deaths and 135 recoveries.

If the results continue on the same path you'd be looking 5-6000 deaths more based on the people currently in hospital.

I see , so assuming recoveries take longer to work through from active hospital cases and new cases than deaths , when this is over the 76% figure should fall as the recovery % line will rise as the death one falls.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

They can, it's all relative though. For example, people can catch it from surfaces but I doubt many will, it's far more likely to be person to person contact. In terms of that, it is more contagious than a lot of diseases (although there have been examples where someone with it hasn't even passed it on to the people they live with) but still nowhere like measles or something as contagious as that. The issue isn't really that though, it's more the severity of it. We have to prevent the spread because even if its one person passing it on to two then it can very quickly overrun the NHS due to the volume needing hospital treatment.

I don't think we do have less than 10,000 either though as we aren't testing everyone that is staying at homes with symptoms. The likelihood of it being closer to that number than, say, a million is very high though based on what we know from other countries.

I agree with that but they need to change the stats , Our Covid numbers are simply wrong. Which has a problem as it means people doubt how widespread this is and don’t alter their behaviour if they base their risk on stats hence why people still pack on to tube trains.

it also skews the mortality rate.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Some info here-

To be fair mate that article talks about December not late January. A month makes a world of difference, as I am sure you don't need reminding. (1 month ago we had 13 cases, no deaths and I am not even sure were being told to wash our hands yet.)

You made the allegation that they had thousands of cases in January and lied to the WHO about it. I understand your frustrations, we all share them, but the Chinese have been open and cooperative since pretty much the start of the year I think. Back in December I suspect they didn't know what they were dealing with themselves.

Anyway, not sure how any of this helps. We are where we are.

 

[SWP's back]

I think that would be unlikely or we wouldn't be in panic mode over the lack of ventilators. If they were 99% unsuccessful, then I am not sure we'd even being considering them as a viable treatment option. I could believe maybe 50% of people on ventilators don't make it, but not 99%.

Good point.

 

[jay_mcfc]

I see , so assuming recoveries take longer to work through from active hospital cases and new cases than deaths , when this is over the 76% figure should fall as the recovery % line will rise as the death one falls.

It will fall as you can see by the numbers in China, Germany etc.

 

[M18CTID]

Aha I see what you're thinking.

The 76% is based on results that have had an ending.

So of 568 UK cases that have ended there's been 433 deaths and 135 recoveries.

If the results continue on the same path you'd be looking 5-6000 deaths more based on the people currently in hospital.

Just on a general note, Worldometers is a great source for stats info but for a few days now, I've noticed that the UK is stuck on 20 Serious/Critical cases! I'm not sure why that is because surely it would've moved one way or the other (probably upwards), unless the NHS are not updating on those daily?

 

[meltonblue]

I agree with that but they need to change the stats , Our Covid numbers are simply wrong. Which has a problem as it means people doubt how widespread this is and don’t alter their behaviour if they base their risk on stats hence why people still pack on to tube trains.

it also skews the mortality rate.

Yep agree with that, it's all about the behaviour change. There is a balancing act to that as well though as I know some people are really struggling with it mentally too and becoming ill from anxiety due to thinking this is far more contagious and likely to harm them than it is if they follow the guidance. If someone isn't going out of their house, and is washing their hands any time they come into contact with any object from outside, then their chance of getting is miniscule to say the least.

I've got someone that works for me that's in that bracket of anxiety. We're all working from home already, but I've told her not to even think about work for the next few weeks. I do worry the harm to mental health could be as equally damaging as the virus itself though if we aren't careful. Coupling realism with having to make idiots change their behaviour is a very difficult ask though!

 

[meltonblue]

To be fair mate that article talks about December not late January. A month makes a world of difference, as I am sure you don't need reminding. (1 month ago we had 13 cases, no deaths and I am not even sure were being told to wash our hands yet.)

You made the allegation that they had thousands of cases in January and lied to the WHO about it. I understand your frustrations, we all share them, but the Chinese have been open and cooperative since pretty much the start of the year I think. Back in December I suspect they didn't know what they were dealing with themselves.

Anyway, not sure how any of this helps. We are where we are.

Yep. They said in mid Jan there was no clear evidence of person to person (as it could still at that point have been transmitted through meat, for example). It was only when the cases hit around the 300 mark they were able to say for sure.

 

[kaz7]

Millions of new coronavirus testing kits could be ready to order on Amazon in days, rather than weeks or months, according to Public Health England.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has previously spoken of a simple test for coronavirus as a potential "total game changer" in the battle against COVID-19.

Professor Sharon Peacock, director of the National Infection Service at Public Health England, revealed on Wednesday that millions of such a test have been ordered and could be used "in the near future".

They would show whether an individual had antibodies for COVID-19 which, if they did, would mean they could return to work if they were not showing symptoms.

Evidence suggests people cannot catch coronavirus twice in quick succession, if they have already been infected and recovered, the government has said

The tests, which look similar to pregnancy tests, could be ordered on Amazon or taken at high street branches such as Boots, Prof Peacock said.

The World Health Organisation has urged countries to step up testing in the global fight against coronavirus.

Appearing before the House of Commons science and technology committee via video link, Prof Peacock said the new tests were currently being evaluated at a laboratory in Oxford with 3.5 million having already been ordered.

"Further millions are being ordered today," Prof Peacock told MPs.

"But we do need to ensure we understand how they operate, because these are brand new tests."

Prof Peacock revealed the evaluation of the tests would likely be done by the end of this week.

She added: "In the near future people will be able to order a test so they can test themselves or go to Boots or somewhere similar to have their finger-prick test done."

Asked if the availability of the test to the public would be a number of days rather than weeks or months, she replied: "Absolutely.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-could-be-available-in-days-mps-told-11963509

 

[Gabriel]

Just on a general note, Worldometers is a great source for stats info but for a few days now, I've noticed that the UK is stuck on 20 Serious/Critical cases! I'm not sure why that is because surely it would've moved one way or the other (probably upwards), unless the NHS are not updating on those daily?

If I may add to that point, the same site has been showing Germany as having 23 serious/critical cases.