COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Ban-jani]

WHO says it can take 24 days...

Don’t wind me up

 

[jay_mcfc]

Yes so that would be as it stands 99% of the 3000 critical cases, which is 7% of the 38000 active cases die not 40% , sorry if I’m being a bit thick here.

I think the figures are then showing that of the cases that aren't currently in icu but are in hospital and tested positive around 35% would die.

Italy's death rates from active cases is 45%
UK is 76%
China 4%
France 25%
USA 67%
Germany 5%

 

[M18CTID]

Don’t wind me up

I think 24 days was only for 1 person worldwide so far, so an extreme case

 

[Chippy_boy]

bit more from the article and comments

"...the researchers suggest that the vast majority of people who contract Covid-19 may suffer little or no illness. They believe that as few as one in a thousand could require hospital treatment — an assumption that suggests, according to their model, that half of the country could now be immune...Even if it’s one in a hundred [who fall seriously ill] you still get to 35 per cent immunity,” Sunetra Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, who led the study, said.
Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, urged that serological tests begin but said: “This is interesting work, but hampered by the same issues that impact all epidemiological models — they rely on assumptions based on a paucity of fact about how this virus transmits.”
The findings are based on assumptions about the most likely characteristics of the disease and are yet to be peer-reviewed or published in a journal."

Comment - Extremely unlikely that 50% of the population are already infected. We can’t disprove this of course but if we take the lowest case fatality rate of 1 in 1000 (from figures from areas all over the world) then we could have 30000 deaths - a disastrous tsunami of cases and deaths facing the NHS and the nation in a matter of weeks. The more realistic assessment is the UCL prediction that 10% of London’s population could/would be infected.

I agree it's very likely bollocks mate. Another example of there being no correlation between genius and common sense. Here we have a professor of epidemiology at Oxford - presumably a very intelligent man indeed - yet someone lacking the common sense to do the basic maths.

If we had 50% of the population infected and 1 in 1,000 needing hospital treatment, then that would have meant 33,000 people would have needed hospital treatment by now. Rather tricky when we have only had 8,000 recorded cases, the vast majority of which have needed no hospital treatment.

The simple maths is so stupidly wrong, it makes me wonder if a thick journalist has simply misinterpreted the report. Surely no professor could be this dim?

 

[nellyonthewing]

Some huge lessons need to be learned before Covid 21 shows up. Quicker travel shutdowns .Quicker isolations. More preparedness.

 

[jay_mcfc]

I think that would be unlikely or we wouldn't be in panic mode over the lack of ventilators. If they were 99% unsuccessful, then I am not sure we'd even being considering them as a viable treatment option. I could believe maybe 50% of people on ventilators don't make it, but not 99%.

I don't know for sure, we might need a nurse or doctor to clarify.

My guess would be that the more ventilators that are used on patients prior to them going into icu the better the chance they have of surviving?

 

[BlueAnorak]

I think the figures are then showing that of the cases that aren't currently in icu but are in hospital and tested positive around 35% would die.

Italy's death rates from active cases is 45%
UK is 76%
China 4%
France 25%
USA 67%
Germany 5%

The UKs active cases total is cases that need medical intervention it is only about 8% of the total with symptoms.

 

[kaz7]

• England - 386 deaths
• Scotland - 22 deaths
• Wales - 22 deaths
• Northern Ireland - 5 deaths

The Department for Health and Social Care will refresh the UK total for deaths, confirmed cases and tests later

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

bit more from the article and comments

"...the researchers suggest that the vast majority of people who contract Covid-19 may suffer little or no illness. They believe that as few as one in a thousand could require hospital treatment — an assumption that suggests, according to their model, that half of the country could now be immune...Even if it’s one in a hundred [who fall seriously ill] you still get to 35 per cent immunity,” Sunetra Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, who led the study, said.
Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, urged that serological tests begin but said: “This is interesting work, but hampered by the same issues that impact all epidemiological models — they rely on assumptions based on a paucity of fact about how this virus transmits.”
The findings are based on assumptions about the most likely characteristics of the disease and are yet to be peer-reviewed or published in a journal."

Comment - Extremely unlikely that 50% of the population are already infected. We can’t disprove this of course but if we take the lowest case fatality rate of 1 in 1000 (from figures from areas all over the world) then we could have 30000 deaths - a disastrous tsunami of cases and deaths facing the NHS and the nation in a matter of weeks. The more realistic assessment is the UCL prediction that 10% of London’s population could/would be infected.

Which of these statements is more likely to be wrong

this is a highly contagious disease that one person can pass on to three, with the multiplication effect that has on a population within 3 months of the disease entering the uk . It is capable of living on surfaces for many hours and people can catch it from surfaces by touching surfaces or things . It will spread like wildfire in a community and so we now have to lock everything down to prevent the spread.

or

in the uk we have less than 10,000 cases of Covid 19.

they can’t both be true.

 

[jay_mcfc]

The UKs active cases total is cases that need medical intervention it is only about 8% of the total with symptoms.

Yeah I know. I'm just giving the current ratio of deaths per active case as they appear on worldometer. Seems to me to be the best guide as to how the next few days will go.