COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Phil1]

Some huge lessons need to be learned before Covid 21 shows up. Quicker travel shutdowns .Quicker isolations. More preparedness.

Did Covid-20 go straight to dvd?

 

[blueparrot]

I think the figures are then showing that of the cases that aren't currently in icu but are in hospital and tested positive around 35% would die.

Italy's death rates from active cases is 45%
UK is 76%
China 4%
France 25%
USA 67%
Germany 5%

We have 427 deaths from 7665 active case not getting how you get 76%. Today of Scotlands 584 confirmed cases 50 are confirmed in icu, assuming those 50 die over the next few days it’s still less than 10% of active cases.

 

[George Hannah]

Which of these statements is more likely to be wrong

this is a highly contagious disease that one person can pass on to three, with the multiplication effect that has on a population within 3 months of the disease entering the uk . It is capable of living on surfaces for many hours and people can catch it from surfaces by touching surfaces or things . It will spread like wildfire in a community and so we now have to lock everything down to prevent the spread.

or

in the uk we have less than 10,000 confirmed cases of Covid 19.

they can’t both be true.

one of the article comments is apposite to your question
"We are dealing here with science, and as all sensible scientists admit, the truth is hard to define.
The poem goes: "We dance around in a ring and suppose But the secret sits in the middle and knows. "

 

[Ban-jani]

Is any of the above actually true though mate? I am not sure it is. The Chinese were telling the world about this from early January. Take a look at the timeline here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_November_2019_–_January_2020#1_January_2020

I don't think they were lying to the WHO when in reality they had 1,000's of cases. And heck, even if they did, it was in Japan by late Jan, and other countries similar time. We knew it was coming and did bugger all for well over a month.

Some info here-

 

[Blue Hefner]

Just got off the phone with NatWest - the Business Interruption Loan isn’t what the government made it out to be in their statement. It’s not easy, cheap money. It’s just for those that couldn’t get a normal business loan and they want a personal guarantee

I wouldn’t need one of the Global companies we’ve delivered services for actually coughed up!!!

 

[Marvin]

I agree it's very likely bollocks mate. Another example of there being no correlation between genius and common sense. Here we have a professor of epidemiology at Oxford - presumably a very intelligent man indeed - yet someone lacking the common sense to do the basic maths.

If we had 50% of the population infected and 1 in 1,000 needing hospital treatment, then that would have meant 33,000 people would have needed hospital treatment by now. Rather tricky when we have only had 8,000 recorded cases, the vast majority of which have needed no hospital treatment.

The simple maths is so stupidly wrong, it makes me wonder if a thick journalist has simply misinterpreted the report. Surely no professor could be this dim?

Are you referring to the comment?

Comment - Extremely unlikely that 50% of the population are already infected. We can’t disprove this of course but if we take the lowest case fatality rate of 1 in 1000 (from figures from areas all over the world) then we could have 30000 deaths - a disastrous tsunami of cases and deaths facing the NHS and the nation in a matter of weeks. The more realistic assessment is the UCL prediction that 10% of London’s population could/would be infected.

What is wrong with that comment? 50% of the Uk population is approx. 30 million. A one in 1000 fatality rate generates 30000 deaths.

 

[jay_mcfc]

We have 427 deaths from 7665 active case not getting how you get 76%. Today of Scotlands 584 confirmed cases 50 are confirmed in icu, assuming those 50 die over the next few days it’s still less than 10% of active cases.

Aha I see what you're thinking.

The 76% is based on results that have had an ending.

So of 568 UK cases that have ended there's been 433 deaths and 135 recoveries.

If the results continue on the same path you'd be looking 5-6000 deaths more based on the people currently in hospital.

 

[kaz7]

How to volunteer

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-to-sign-up-to-become-an-nhs-volunteer-responder-11963205

 

[meltonblue]

Which of these statements is more likely to be wrong

this is a highly contagious disease that one person can pass on to three, with the multiplication effect that has on a population within 3 months of the disease entering the uk . It is capable of living on surfaces for many hours and people can catch it from surfaces by touching surfaces or things . It will spread like wildfire in a community and so we now have to lock everything down to prevent the spread.

or

in the uk we have less than 10,000 cases of Covid 19.

they can’t both be true.

They can, it's all relative though. For example, people can catch it from surfaces but I doubt many will, it's far more likely to be person to person contact. In terms of that, it is more contagious than a lot of diseases (although there have been examples where someone with it hasn't even passed it on to the people they live with) but still nowhere like measles or something as contagious as that. The issue isn't really that though, it's more the severity of it. We have to prevent the spread because even if its one person passing it on to two then it can very quickly overrun the NHS due to the volume needing hospital treatment.

I don't think we do have less than 10,000 either though as we aren't testing everyone that is staying at homes with symptoms. The likelihood of it being closer to that number than, say, a million is very high though based on what we know from other countries.

 

[hello]

Exactly mate, what’s the chances of 10 people not catching it from someone they spent 3 days at close quarters with? But not one of us have even had the dry cough symptom that he had.

Just doesn’t make sense.

My apologies. He was introduced on the TV as Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee (which I gather he is). I was mistakenly imagining that was a ministerial role.

someone complained about him being introduced as Jeremy hunt the ****, guessing it was a family member or someone he paid