COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[SilverFox2]

Dr Harries said enough for us to know that Cummings broke the (then guidelines. It’s also clear that the Government licks and chooses which scientific advice it follows as it is entitled to do so.

Bound to be divided opinion among scientists so an ideal area for politicians to do the thing that suits their plans with a built in scapegoat when disaster strikes.

 

[Academica]

And if you have a camera you don't have to socially distance. I don't like the look of Cummings, he appears to be an arrogant **** but I would think all the ones outraged are either Labour MPs or the twats who flooded to the beaches this week

I think travel to beaches is allowed.

 

[vincent]

How do you they couldnt ?
Turns out his sister lives in london

I don’t but that and why I’m not making assumptions like you are. You have no idea what his sisters family circumstances are and whether she is capable of looking after someones young child. If you have children you will know this type of issue can be very complex.

 

[Nellies left peg]

I think travel to beaches is allowed.

The scenes at various beaches around the country did not conform to lockdown advice either

 

[Academica]

The scenes at various beaches around the country did not conform to lockdown advice either

When the government said that it was allowed what did you think was going to happen?

 

[kaz7]

Karen you just extract anything that fits your narrative regardless of what it is. If their modelling said there is likely to be a huge 2nd wave you'd be on here quicker than a rat up drainpipe to tell everyone. Modelling by its very nature can be inaccurate as we have seen from those predicting millions of deaths.

That is at the bottom of your own link,you can't just read the headline,you have to read the lot,you can't believe what the headline says and not what they actually say,all modelling is just that,as we get data that trumps the modelling,look it up
I post the eminent scientists here and in the states along with the WHO not random people anywhere else

 

[Nellies left peg]

When the government said that it was allowed what did you think was going to happen?

I thought, although misguided most people would stick to guidelines as most people have or know of elderly or infirm at risk people. I should have known its an I don't give a fuck I'm alright society

 

[Tim of the Oak]

The scenes at various beaches around the country did not conform to lockdown advice either

It was difficult to tell from the footage I saw. The long distance photos will have foreshortened the perceived distances between people / groups. From the pics I saw most if not all of the family groups could have been social distancing.

 

[Cityfan]

Singapore data modelling says UK will be virus free by September

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/scientists-predict-exact-date-coronavirus-22073343

Hopefully more accurate than our experts modelling.

It's a very interesting paper
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/
The main thing the paper is emphasising is actually uncertainty and how unpredictable it is.

 

[SilverFox2]

Well phase 2 for many Spanish Provinces on Monday coupled with an announcement that July will allow tourists into Spain.
Even hot spots like Madrid are out of stage 0 and into stage 1.
Full lockdown being relaxed gradually and only allowed when earned by good medical results so Province by Province the good practises that stop CV spread are being observed and rewarded.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I thought, although misguided most people would stick to guidelines as most people have or know of elderly or infirm at risk people. I should have known its an I don't give a fuck I'm alright society

Most people didn’t change their behaviour after the lockdown was eased. We know that from the charts in the daily press conferences. I can understand families, who may have been cooped up in a flat or a house for weeks, wanting to go to the beach when it was allowed.

 

[Bovril]

Like YOU keeps saying this is new virus and no one knows how it is going to behave. At this moment in time I'd say immunity is more likely than a horrific 2nd wave.

I will repeat what I said 5 Weeks ago, lets see where we are at in 12-18 Months comparable to the rest of the World.

 

[True_Blue69]

That is at the bottom of your own link,you can't just read the headline,you have to read the lot,you can't believe what the headline says and not what they actually say,all modelling is just that,as we get data that trumps the modelling,look it up
I post the eminent scientists here and in the states along with the WHO not random people anywhere else

I'd read it which was I said in my original post I hope it proves to be accurate. I wasn't posting it as fact but a possibility based on the current path we are on. Clearly if everyone starts pissing about and not social distancing then the path will change.

 

[Nellies left peg]

Most people didn’t change their behaviour after the lockdown was eased. We know that from the charts in the daily press conferences. I can understand families, who may have been cooped up in a flat or a house for weeks, wanting to go to the beach when it was allowed.

I'm probably overreacting due to the fact that I have a vulnerable spouse and some people's behaviour makes my blood boil. I can quite understand responsible wanting to get a bit of relief from the lockdown

 

[St.Pauli support]

Well it can't be with 257,000 positive tests.

Next thing they haven't clearly explained to their nations, and are confusing us now...

When talking about 0.27% average infected (between 27 April and 10 May)

and 0.25% average infected (between 4 and 17 May),​

ONS are coming from R-value and then estimating the number of ACTIVE cases for a certain period, IMHO.
R was just below 1, so the number decreased slightly from 0.27 to 0.25%.
Those numbers EXCLUDE hospitals, care homes and other institutions and only refer to infections within the community population, in England only.

What do those numbers tell us?
Anything about true infection and dark figure of infections?
No. PCR-tests only show active cases.
It mainly monitors the R-value within the community to help gov decide...

It also says:
"There were an estimated 61,000 new COVID-19 infections per week in England."
It's just a number for later comparison. We can't calculate the true infection rate from that.

Search for "0.25" or "0.27" in here for more details:
https://nhsproviders.org/topics/cov...nal-guidance/government-updates/daily-updates

Nobody knows the true infection rate, many are wildly guessing or just hoping...

 

[True_Blue69]

Who said horrific ,everyone is saying second wave,i said we are well prepared,having said that only 0.25% of Brita have had it

Stick your head in the sand

Whatever you go on about quoting science and all that shite then say 0.25% of people have had it. Grow up.

 

[Bovril]

He took the child in case him and his wife became ill,they could have stayed home in isolation having their food delivered in london,a family member who wasn't ill or isolating could have collected the child if they both became too ill,the child is the excuse to go where he went

Karen please this is getting tireless and repetitive, this stuff should be in the Covid political thread not here, it diminishes the superb analysis of this virus from some excellent posters.

 

[quiet_riot]

Yes. Except when you're under a metre away from an infected person is breathing or talking - especially in an enclosed space when aerosol transmission is taking place.

The 1/2/5 metres think is bollocks IMO

Ever smelt smoke from someone smoking far away? Yeah, you're breathing in their breath, I see no reason why this would be different.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I'm probably overreacting due to the fact that I have a vulnerable spouse and some people's behaviour makes my blood boil. I can quite understand responsible wanting to get a bit of relief from the lockdown

Thanks Nellies Left Peg. I’m just going off seeing the pics on the Victoria Derbyshire programme who thought the families were probably in socially distanced groups.

 

[Nellies left peg]

Thanks Nellies Left Peg. I’m just going off seeing the pics on the Victoria Derbyshire programme who thought the families were probably in socially distanced groups.

I saw an interview with some Asian kid out with his family and he said no one was following the rules so why should he? Wanted to punch his lights out. That's what we're up against