COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[George Hannah]

That 'only' figure looks very low to a know-nowt like me, hopefully they hit the mark with it.
While these sort of articles are perhaps good for morale I'd be a little worried that the public will start to ease off on safety.

I missed it - which 'only' figure is that?

 

[SWP's back]

CORONAVIRUS

Coronavirus: Lockdown ‘is on course to reduce total death rate’

Tom Whipple, Science Editor | Kat Lay, Health Correspondent

Saturday March 28 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Statisticians believe the lockdown is being successful in reducing the impact of the coronavirus

Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe.
The country will avoid the 260,000 fatalities once feared if it keeps on the same path seen in China, statisticians at Imperial College London have calculated.

They emphasised that this did not imply that the fears of mass deaths were alarmist, but that the government strategy was working. “Our work shows that social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an effective parachute across multiple countries,” Tom Pike, of Imperial College, said. “That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”

This month Neil Ferguson, Professor Pike’s colleague at Imperial, presented a modelling analysis that suggested coronavirus would kill.....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...n-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk

Surely I’m not the only thinking “If that’s true and we normally get 20,000 Flu deaths each year, then why are we and every other country plunging economies into recession with lock downs and why are we building pop up morgues to take 20 odd thousand bodies?”

 

[George Hannah]

The article has missed off the figures were a "best guess" and based their stats off comparing us with Chinas trajectory, our lockdown is a lot more laspe and free than China.

we can always rely on BM for a bit of cheerless perspective ;)

 

[Rammy Blue]

Did you not read the post about the extreme quarantine going on in Shanghai?

This is the second time they’ve gone into it.

Said all along that it’s pointless judging anything on Chinese figures and reports, utter fabrication.

 

[George Hannah]

Surely I’m not the only thinking “If that’s true and we normally get 20,000 Flu deaths each year, then why are we and every other country plunging economies into recession with lock downs and why are we building pop up morgues to take 20 odd thousand bodies?”

Lockdown measures are not universally effectively applied or even introduced?

 

[SWP's back]

US deaths currently stand at 1,704. Why should their epidemic be any different to China, Italy, UK, Spain etc in general form?

Quite a few reasons:

1) China went into full lock down for three months. The US (well Trump), wants to open everything back up in 2 weeks and have churches full.

2) The US has five or six times the population of Italy and the highest rates of obesity in the developed world and BMI is linked with morality with Covid-19.

3) The US health system is run for profit and they have not got the capacity. Look at NY City.

 

[Rammy Blue]

The article has missed off the figures were a "best guess" and based their stats off comparing us with China's trajectory, our lockdown is a lot more laspe and free than China.

My guess would be we will be “lucky” if we get less than 20,000 deaths.

 

[SWP's back]

I wouldn't have expected to see Dominic Cummings running out of Downing Street if that had been the case.

It’s a theory that’s beyond risible.

 

[urban genie]

we can always rely on BM for a bit of cheerless perspective ;)

Selectively edited article from the governments go to paper telling us things are'nt as bad as we think aren't helpfull in my opinion.

We have seen enough clowns ignore lockdown without them getting it into their heads things will be rosy in a two weeks and reverting to life as usual.

The mirror has the same article but does quote the "best guess" bit.

I find that an important bit of info and for once would prefer a more sombre and serious tone than false hope.

 

[Marvin]

According to your figures then, 26m get flu each each (going off the 0.1% fatality rate). That doesn’t seem right. I’ve only knowingly had it once in 38 years.


This (first google link - Oxford University) says 600 die of Flu in the U.K. each year.

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

That’s a massive disparity.

They are not my figures. I sourced it from PHE. If you think I've taken it out of context then check the source.