COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Marvin]

I think it could end up killing over a million Americans. They are woefully underprepared imo. Staggeringly so.

US deaths currently stand at 1,704. Why should their epidemic be any different to China, Italy, UK, Spain etc in general form?

The frightening aspects are the affects in poorer countries for whom social isolation (our main weapon) may not be as effective. I am only speculating but I feel it will be much harder to protect people by this method in poorer countries.

So far countries have to bring themselves almost to a total halt to stop the infection, otherwise the costs would be catastrophic but so far I think the evidence to date shows that deaths will be low in the advanced countries in comparison to the usual 'flu epidemics.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

CORONAVIRUS

Coronavirus: Lockdown ‘is on course to reduce total death rate’

Tom Whipple, Science Editor | Kat Lay, Health Correspondent

Saturday March 28 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Statisticians believe the lockdown is being successful in reducing the impact of the coronavirus

Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe.
The country will avoid the 260,000 fatalities once feared if it keeps on the same path seen in China, statisticians at Imperial College London have calculated.

They emphasised that this did not imply that the fears of mass deaths were alarmist, but that the government strategy was working. “Our work shows that social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an effective parachute across multiple countries,” Tom Pike, of Imperial College, said. “That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”

This month Neil Ferguson, Professor Pike’s colleague at Imperial, presented a modelling analysis that suggested coronavirus would kill.....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...n-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk

That 'only' figure looks very low to a know-nowt like me, hopefully they hit the mark with it.

While these sort of articles are perhaps good for morale I'd be a little worried that the public will start to ease off on safety.

 

[urban genie]

From our media it would seem China has returned back to normal. Even releasing statements that young people would understand like “Apple has reopened its shops in China “ . They are still on lockdown?!

I was hoping for relaxing some of the rules by May here but this is depressing.

We haven't even peaked or got to our worst period yet.

We got months to go I expect, and my work ain't even thinking of any chance of a relaxing of the lockdown till June at earliest and they are saying that as a hope mor ethan a fact.

 

[SWP's back]

China has a population of 1.4 billion people, I find it odd there figures are below Italy when you think of the shear amount of people living there. There must be millions upon millions that have not had it there yet I don’t believe just cutting off Wuhan has solved it.

Did you not read the post about the extreme quarantine going on in Shanghai?

This is the second time they’ve gone into it.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

From our media it would seem China has returned back to normal. Even releasing statements that young people would understand like “Apple has reopened its shops in China “ . They are still on lockdown?!

I was hoping for relaxing some of the rules by May here but this is depressing.

yup and hearing some reliable leaks here that the Portuguese government are proposing schools can only open in May at the earliest. That means I will be an expert in the global factors leading to the commencement of world war 1 and speaking French with another 1 month minimum of home schooling. Grim!

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

Did you not read the post about the extreme quarantine going on in Shanghai?

This is the second time they’ve gone into it.

Yes I did and it’s frightening stuff it looks like it’s catching fire again there. I doubt China would be forthcoming with the truth as they want full steam ahead with the economy whilst the rest of the world is stopped trying to fight it.

 

[SWP's back]

Some perspective for those people who are getting alarmed about the number of deaths.

I report below the number of deaths from 'flu in the UK in recent years. It's of the order of 20,000 a year.

The coronavirus epidemic will take very approximately 2 x cumulative deaths at the peak which is going to be significantly less than 20,000.

I am not sure exactly how the data is compiled but I just wanted to get an order of magnitude comparison. It's just information. You do what you want with it.

Source: Public Health England, surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in the UK Winter 2018 and 2019.

According to your figures then, 26m get flu each each (going off the 0.1% fatality rate). That doesn’t seem right. I’ve only knowingly had it once in 38 years.


This (first google link - Oxford University) says 600 die of Flu in the U.K. each year.

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

That’s a massive disparity.

 

[goalmole]

Or are suffering very mild symptoms following a vaccine shot........

I wouldn't have expected to see Dominic Cummings running out of Downing Street if that had been the case.

 

[urban genie]

That 'only' figure looks very low to a know-nowt like me, hopefully they hit the mark with it.

While these sort of articles are perhaps good for morale I'd be a little worried that the public will start to ease off on safety.

The article has missed off the figures were a "best guess" and based their stats off comparing us with China's trajectory, our lockdown is a lot more laspe and free than China.

 

[Marvin]

Especially when he sends them all back to work. It’s going to be a catastrophe.

I think when Trump comes out with comments about re-opening the country it will be because behind the scenes in their taskforce they will have been having those discussions. I watch the UK press conferences and the US press conferences. The US press conferences are painfully long-winded but their scientists share information, and are transparent, or try to be. That's the way science operates and in this the US executive has to be guided by science, however maverick Trump maybe.

 

[George Hannah]

That 'only' figure looks very low to a know-nowt like me, hopefully they hit the mark with it.
While these sort of articles are perhaps good for morale I'd be a little worried that the public will start to ease off on safety.

I missed it - which 'only' figure is that?

 

[SWP's back]

CORONAVIRUS

Coronavirus: Lockdown ‘is on course to reduce total death rate’

Tom Whipple, Science Editor | Kat Lay, Health Correspondent

Saturday March 28 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Statisticians believe the lockdown is being successful in reducing the impact of the coronavirus

Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe.
The country will avoid the 260,000 fatalities once feared if it keeps on the same path seen in China, statisticians at Imperial College London have calculated.

They emphasised that this did not imply that the fears of mass deaths were alarmist, but that the government strategy was working. “Our work shows that social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an effective parachute across multiple countries,” Tom Pike, of Imperial College, said. “That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”

This month Neil Ferguson, Professor Pike’s colleague at Imperial, presented a modelling analysis that suggested coronavirus would kill.....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...n-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk

Surely I’m not the only thinking “If that’s true and we normally get 20,000 Flu deaths each year, then why are we and every other country plunging economies into recession with lock downs and why are we building pop up morgues to take 20 odd thousand bodies?”

 

[George Hannah]

The article has missed off the figures were a "best guess" and based their stats off comparing us with Chinas trajectory, our lockdown is a lot more laspe and free than China.

we can always rely on BM for a bit of cheerless perspective ;)

 

[Rammy Blue]

Did you not read the post about the extreme quarantine going on in Shanghai?

This is the second time they’ve gone into it.

Said all along that it’s pointless judging anything on Chinese figures and reports, utter fabrication.

 

[George Hannah]

Surely I’m not the only thinking “If that’s true and we normally get 20,000 Flu deaths each year, then why are we and every other country plunging economies into recession with lock downs and why are we building pop up morgues to take 20 odd thousand bodies?”

Lockdown measures are not universally effectively applied or even introduced?

 

[SWP's back]

US deaths currently stand at 1,704. Why should their epidemic be any different to China, Italy, UK, Spain etc in general form?

Quite a few reasons:

1) China went into full lock down for three months. The US (well Trump), wants to open everything back up in 2 weeks and have churches full.

2) The US has five or six times the population of Italy and the highest rates of obesity in the developed world and BMI is linked with morality with Covid-19.

3) The US health system is run for profit and they have not got the capacity. Look at NY City.

 

[Rammy Blue]

The article has missed off the figures were a "best guess" and based their stats off comparing us with China's trajectory, our lockdown is a lot more laspe and free than China.

My guess would be we will be “lucky” if we get less than 20,000 deaths.

 

[SWP's back]

I wouldn't have expected to see Dominic Cummings running out of Downing Street if that had been the case.

It’s a theory that’s beyond risible.

 

[urban genie]

we can always rely on BM for a bit of cheerless perspective ;)

Selectively edited article from the governments go to paper telling us things are'nt as bad as we think aren't helpfull in my opinion.

We have seen enough clowns ignore lockdown without them getting it into their heads things will be rosy in a two weeks and reverting to life as usual.

The mirror has the same article but does quote the "best guess" bit.

I find that an important bit of info and for once would prefer a more sombre and serious tone than false hope.

 

[Marvin]

According to your figures then, 26m get flu each each (going off the 0.1% fatality rate). That doesn’t seem right. I’ve only knowingly had it once in 38 years.


This (first google link - Oxford University) says 600 die of Flu in the U.K. each year.

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

That’s a massive disparity.

They are not my figures. I sourced it from PHE. If you think I've taken it out of context then check the source.