COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[SebastianBlue]

It depends on what you mean by mortality rate. The mortality rate that's being reported for this virus is the CFR (case fatality rate), which = (deaths by virus/infected people). The 1918 flu had a CFR between 10% and 20%, not of 2%, as I discussed earlier with SWP. That 2% for the 1918 flu was = (deaths by virus/whole world population, healthy and infected). And the world population in 1918 was most certainly not of 250 million people lol

And even further, CFR only includes confirmed cases (by nature), so it is also not representative of all ‘actual’ infections, which will always be higher.

While that means the ‘actual’ mortality rate could go up or down (though, usually it goes down), the estimated ‘actual’ mortality rate (based on epidemiological models) had been ranging from 1-4% depending the source, but given the new guidance today those may be adjusted down, which would be a good development.

 

[kaz7]

NHS England has declared coronavirus a level four incident - the highest category.

It comes as confirmed cases in the UK rose to 51 and Boris Johnson unveiled his plan for dealing with the outbreak.

The 12 new coronavirus cases include eight patients who had travelled from Italy, one from Germany, one from Singapore, one from Japan and one from Iran.

They are from London, Hampshire, Northamptonshire, Bury, Wirral, Greater Manchester, Humberside and Kent.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the NHS had been "preparing for a pandemic virus for over a decade" and was still in the containment phase.

But he said if global cases continue rising - especially in Europe - "we may not be able to contain the virus indefinitely".

Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth called for assurances that workers not entitled to sick pay would not be forced to choose between self-isolation and earning a living if they get sick.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth called for assurances that workers not entitled to sick pay would not be forced to choose between self-isolation and earning a living if they get sick.

We should be careful not to direct the conversation to politics, as political posts will need to be moved or the thread moved to the Politics subforum.

But I will say from a crisis response point of view this is a noble cause, and one that recognises the immense burden containment of the virus will place on the working poor (and how that will have knock on effects on the economy, along with the many others), but I just cannot see any effective programme being developed to mitigate the impact as it would require billions in subsidies to actually work.

Unfortunately, if we do step up containment efforts, and require mandatory isolation, it is going to be devastating for far too many.

 

[kaz7]

We should be careful not to direct the conversation to politics, as political posts will need to be moved or the thread moved to the Politics subforum.

But I will say from a crisis response point of view this is a noble cause, and one that recognises the immense burden containment of the virus will place on the working poor (and how that will have knock on effects on the economy, along with the many others), but I just cannot see any effective programme being developed to mitigate the impact as it would require billions in subsidies to actually work.

Unfortunately, if we do step up containment efforts, and require mandatory isolation, it is going to be devastating for far too many.

It will cripple the self employed in particular if things get as bad as predicted,2 wks isolation can send some small businesses to the wall
I included what labour said as it's only fair to have their opinion as well

 

[Cityfan]

We should be careful not to direct the conversation to politics, as political posts will need to be moved or the thread moved to the Politics subforum.

But I will say from a crisis response point of view this is a noble cause, and one that recognises the immense burden containment of the virus will place on the working poor (and how that will have knock on effects on the economy, along with the many others), but I just cannot see any effective programme being developed to mitigate the impact as it would require billions in subsidies to actually work.

Unfortunately, if we do step up containment efforts, and require mandatory isolation, it is going to be devastating for far too many.

I caught some of the press conference and the WHO are still pretty adamant that containment is working and working well in China and they are developing tests to determine what the infection rate has been in Wuhan based on antibodies, it will be interesting to see what happens when they lift the lockdown.

 

[cibaman]

NHS England has declared coronavirus a level four incident - the highest category.

It comes as confirmed cases in the UK rose to 51 and Boris Johnson unveiled his plan for dealing with the outbreak.

The 12 new coronavirus cases include eight patients who had travelled from Italy, one from Germany, one from Singapore, one from Japan and one from Iran.

They are from London, Hampshire, Northamptonshire, Bury, Wirral, Greater Manchester, Humberside and Kent.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the NHS had been "preparing for a pandemic virus for over a decade" and was still in the containment phase.

But he said if global cases continue rising - especially in Europe - "we may not be able to contain the virus indefinitely".

Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth called for assurances that workers not entitled to sick pay would not be forced to choose between self-isolation and earning a living if they get sick.

Anyone know the score between Cases in Italy v Cases involving people who have travelled from Italy? Must be getting close

 

[SebastianBlue]

I caught some of the press conference and the WHO are still pretty adamant that containment is working and working well in China and they are developing tests to determine what the infection rate has been in Wuhan based on antibodies, it will be interesting to see what happens when they lift the lockdown.

Yes, it will and I hope those statements are accurate.

I was speaking of the potential impacts to UK citizens of such enforced measures (which, as we have talked about in the thread, would likely be nowhere near as successful in China, for many reasons).

It will cripple the self employed in particular if things get as bad as predicted,2 wks isolation can send some small businesses to the wall
I included what labour said as it's only fair to have their opinion as well

It absolutely will hit the self-employed hard, as well. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

And it is fair, I just wanted to make sure I got in that reminder for everyone in the thread so we don’t go down the path of political debate.

 

[aguero93:20]

 

[skiddypants]

If you catch it and survive, can you catch it again?

 

[deano ou812]

If you catch it and survive, can you catch it again?

Yes..