COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[SWP's back]

It’s not less lethal it’s the infection rate isn’t it, that’s the whole point if everyone gets it then that percentage is a lot, not everyone gets flu.

There is not a chance in hell that Covid-19 ends up with a fatality rate of 0.07%. (Flu being 0.1%)

That would be fantastic, but there’s not any evidence that’s the case. WHO has it at 3.4%, the CMO of the U.K. expects it to end up around 1% (still 14x more lethal than 0.07%).

As for how often someone gets Flu, apparently it’s twice every decade:

https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/how-often-do-we-catch-the-flu

 

[Rammy Blue]

Good Morning Britain not helping themselves by having some utter **** called Peter Hitchens on the show, busy blathering on about it being no worse than seasonal flu.

Maybe he’s a poster on here....

 

[Ban-jani]

We’ll have to disagree on “they definitely knew” in December, at that time they still didn’t know if it was from people coming into contact with contaminated meat rather than having to be at the market. Like I said earlier, they informed the WHO when there were still less than 40 cases.

Bear in mind though you’re saying China should have locked down or checked flights when there was less than 40 cases of a new virus. We still aren’t checking flights in and allowed travel throughout the pandemic spreading worldwide. They went straight into lockdown not fully knowing the rate of infection. We didn’t, even knowing it was seemingly highly contagious. Everything you’re arguing about China's slow response initially to it, we were far more armed with what was likely to happen and didn’t either, yet had far more evidence to go off.

That’s not what’s been reported in the FT.

They said they alerted the WHO in December, or tried to.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

WHO: coronavirus epidemic is “far from over” in the Asia-Pacific region
The coronavirus epidemic is “far from over” in the Asia-Pacific region, and current measures to curb the spread of the virus are buying time for countries to prepare for large-scale community transmissions, a WHO official said on Tuesday.

Reuters reports:

Even with all the measures, the risk of transmission in the region will not go away as long as the pandemic continues, said Takeshi Kasai, Regional Director for the Western Pacific at the World Health Organization (WHO).

The new coronavirus first surfaced in central China in late 2019. Infections have now exceeded 770,000 cases worldwide, with the United States, Italy and Spain overtaking mainland China in confirmed cases.

“Let me be clear. The epidemic is far from over in Asia and the Pacific. This is going to be a long-term battle and we cannot let down our guard,” Kasai told a virtual media briefing.

“We need every country to keep preparing for large-scale community transmission.”

Countries with limited resources are a priority, such as Pacific Island nations, he said, as they have to ship samples to other countries for diagnoses, and transportation restrictions are making that more difficult.

Kasai warned that for countries that are seeing a tapering off of cases, they should not let down their guard, or the virus may come surging back.

The WHO does not expect any country to be safe, as the coronavirus will eventually get everywhere, said WHO technical adviser Matthew Griffith.

“Whereas countries and areas in this region have shown how to flatten the curve, outbreaks continue to pop up in new places and importation remains a concern,” Griffith said at the briefing, citing cases in Singapore and South Korea from people who travelled abroad.

The focus of the epidemic is now on Europe, but that will likely shift to other regions, Griffith said.

 

[Ban-jani]

Good Morning Britain not helping themselves by having some utter **** called Peter Hitchens on the show, busy blathering on about it being no worse than seasonal flu.

Maybe he’s a poster on here....

Hitchens is a brilliant speaker and writer, he’s wrong on this occasion but he’s been right on so much.

He was absolutely hounded in 2003 for saying the Iraq War would turn into disaster.

Every so often someone, as a journalist, gets something wrong and he is on this occasion, but he’s written so good books and is often right.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Maybe as a response to mass hysteria induced by people on social media shrieking their doomsday prophesies, abusing those who don't agree with them and reporting each death with disturbing glee all without the necessary data to have an informed opinion.

We saw the result and, at the same time, the real nature of people as they rushed to the shops to strip the shelves, not for old people, not for others, but for themselves. Wholly unnecessary, but what people do when they are frightened and panicking. It's not a huge step from there to looting and, from there, to lawlessness. In my opinion, the lockdown isn't about the virus, it's about controlling the hysteria.

Besides, I had it at Christmas.

in a way you are both right.

the actual mortality rate of this when the dust settles may be less than 1% , our experts have said that they expect that since day 1.

however this disease is new and the NHS could not have managed with this on top of an existing stretched NHS at this time of year so it did need managing. Given the spread and numbers that need hospital treatment with this the nhs would simply not be able to cope and therefore we needed to make measures to help them . The nhs would be overwhelmed if we did nothing.

however the response needs to be proportionate , if this goes on too long the impact is going to be worse than the virus itself. Hopefully in my view until the end of April then a gradual relaxation hopefully.

not only are businesses going bust, people losing their jobs but we are spending billions supporting business , high in many cases that won’t recover anyway particularly if this is going to last months.

Don’t forget not only are we currently spending billions we are doing so at a time when the tax take has absolutely tanked. People not driving cars , so no tax from the petrol, people not flying so no aviation tax, no people moving house so no stamp duty, let alone businesses not trading for a few months so no tax take from these businesses or people.

if people think austerity was bad after the financial crash wait for this. This is already going to be hard enough, the longer the period of lockdown goes harder and longer it is going to take to recover.

people need to start throwing into the equation the hardship and severity of the after effects when they are considering how long current lock downs are going to go on for.

 

[i8rags]

Hitchens is a brilliant speaker and writer, he’s wrong on this occasion but he’s been right on so much.

He was absolutely hounded in 2003 for saying the Iraq War would turn into disaster.

Every so often someone, as a journalist, gets something wrong and he is on this occasion, but he’s written so good books and is often right.

Peter, is that you?

 

[Ban-jani]

So really this boils down to the Taiwanese government saying (three months on) that they warned China/WHO about human to human transmission.

You read "Taiwan wrote to WHO on 31st December about human-to-human spread". I read "Speaking to reporters in Taipei, the island’s Centres for Disease Control chief Chou Jih-haw said that it written to the WHO and China as early as Dec. 31, asking for information about the newly uncovered virus outbreak in China’s Wuhan city, including whether there was human-to-human transmission." https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-h...-questions-at-start-of-outbreak-idUKKBN21B160

You read suppression of knowledge, I read a request for information. Taiwan did not know.

“We asked them whether there’s a possibility of human-to-human transmission. We indeed asked them and reminded them of the matter,” Chou said.

His organisation did not mention this in its first press release on 6 January - so does that mean Taiwan was suppressing its own knowledge?
https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/Dbg1J9leIDoxseqTHMiaxQ?typeid=158

Taiwan wrote to the WHO about human to human spread in December. Their scientists visited China in early January, weren’t shown everything and knew something was wrong from what they were shown and yet you still maintain China is innocent of a cover up?

You accused me, like your little brother on here, of being a WUM last night, because you didn’t like what I said, will you take that back now?

 

[Rammy Blue]

Hitchens is a brilliant speaker and writer, he’s wrong on this occasion but he’s been right on so much.

He was absolutely hounded in 2003 for saying the Iraq War would turn into disaster.

Every so often someone, as a journalist, gets something wrong and he is on this occasion, but he’s written so good books and is often right.

Never heard of him so I’ll defer to your judgement on that, but he was a complete wanker then on tv and of no help to anyone - so annoying I had to mute the telly.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Good Morning Britain not helping themselves by having some utter **** called Peter Hitchens on the show, busy blathering on about it being no worse than seasonal flu.

Maybe he’s a poster on here....

You are correct. Peter Hitchens is a ****.