COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Dreadful rise in both cases and hospital deaths today.
Not really in new cases, today is only 220 more than Friday's total, and every weekend has shown a fall in numbers than Friday's have. We were increasing by 700 a day last week, so only 220 more than Friday is certainly suggesting a slow down since then.
 
Who says we shouldn’t be shocked, you. I’m shocked wether you or any else likes it or not.
I’m not stupid, I know what they say, they say a lot. Agree totally if this increases at today’s rate of growth I’d be very nervous. Your opinion is valued but telling me when or not to be shocked is not on.
So just tell me why you are shocked.Seriously.
 
Go on then. Explain right now why if you infected 1000 people on 1 day in a City with almost zero cases beforehand, there wouldn't be a spike 19 days later.

What happens 19 days later?
Surely if there was going to be a spike in deaths, first would come a spike in new cases, as far as I can tell Liverpool hasn’t seen a particular spike in new new cases so it looks like the Madrid fans had little impact. Obviously Cheltenham is harder to quantify as they came from all over.
 
How many of those 1000 will die and when? It's a very simple question.
Before ones in the 2,500 that they infected and ones in the next the 6,250 and the ones in the 15,625 who followed them.

So where's your peak in that lot? in the first batch? No, the peak is later, only higher.
 
Surely if there was going to be a spike in deaths, first would come a spike in new cases, as far as I can tell Liverpool hasn’t seen a particular spike in new new cases so it looks like the Madrid fans had little impact. Obviously Cheltenham is harder to quantify as they came from all over.

Yes exactly. There'd be a spike in case first, but then deaths. Cases are hard to measure though because of the limited testing.

Cheltenham would also have a spike, because despite a wide audience, I would say based on experience roughly 25% of the crowd is still local and the biggest risk of infecting people could actually be in town in the bars and pubs, clubs and restaurants mingling with the locals after the racing. So you'd still get a local peak.

People are being ruled by their emotions over seeing gathered crowds and not looking at what's actually happened. If the Liverpool match or Cheltenham had been a big infection events then we'd have seen it reflected in the cases and deaths locally by now.

There's a reason that the epidemiologists didn't think sporting events at that point was a danger and they've been proven correct.
 
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