AlgarveBlu
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 21 Aug 2005
- Messages
- 3,930
Anyone know anything about this institution’s track record in forecasting? I can’t see those UK and US predicted numbers being correct on this wave of the pandemic. Too high and too low in my opinion.
http://www.healthdata.org/news-rele...have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its
66,000 Covid-19 deaths forecast in UK
The UK could see as many as 66,000 Covid-19 deaths during the first wave of the current pandemic, more than a third of the expected death toll across Europe, according to modelling by a US university.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine estimated that approximately 151,680 people were likely to die from the virus across the continent. The institute estimates 81,766 deaths for the whole of the US.
IHME director Dr Christopher Murray said:
We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe. It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States
Using local and international data on case numbers, as well as age mortality breakdowns from Italy, China and the US, the team at IHME modelled the expected death toll on a country-by-country basis.
A key consideration was an individual nation’s intensive care bed capacity. According to a news release by the institute:
The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. For example, peak demand in the UK is expected to total 102,794 hospital beds needed compared to 17,765 available, 24,544 ICU beds compared to 744 ICU beds available, and 20,862 ventilators needed (with data currently unavailable on ventilators available).
More than 5,000 people have died from Covid-19 in so far in the UK, fewer than in Spain, Italy and France. But the epidemic curve in the UK lags behind the rest of the continent by several days, and its death toll trajectory is already steeper than other nations, IHME said.
http://www.healthdata.org/news-rele...have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its
66,000 Covid-19 deaths forecast in UK
The UK could see as many as 66,000 Covid-19 deaths during the first wave of the current pandemic, more than a third of the expected death toll across Europe, according to modelling by a US university.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine estimated that approximately 151,680 people were likely to die from the virus across the continent. The institute estimates 81,766 deaths for the whole of the US.
IHME director Dr Christopher Murray said:
We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe. It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States
Using local and international data on case numbers, as well as age mortality breakdowns from Italy, China and the US, the team at IHME modelled the expected death toll on a country-by-country basis.
A key consideration was an individual nation’s intensive care bed capacity. According to a news release by the institute:
The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. For example, peak demand in the UK is expected to total 102,794 hospital beds needed compared to 17,765 available, 24,544 ICU beds compared to 744 ICU beds available, and 20,862 ventilators needed (with data currently unavailable on ventilators available).
More than 5,000 people have died from Covid-19 in so far in the UK, fewer than in Spain, Italy and France. But the epidemic curve in the UK lags behind the rest of the continent by several days, and its death toll trajectory is already steeper than other nations, IHME said.
