COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

Latest, another 758 deaths recorded in ENGLAND.

Another 758 patients have died in England after contracting the coronavirus - bringing the total to 5,655.

The figures have been released by NHS England, showing 224 of the deaths were in London, 142 in the Midlands and 101 in the east of England.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-patient-deaths-rise-by-758-in-england-11969899

 

[inchy14]

Latest, another 758 deaths recorded in ENGLAND.

Doesn’t that have all the weeks care home figures included today though?

 

[blueparrot]

The effects of that last weekend of madness.

No, mainly the effects of lower reporting over the weekend, each lower reading came with a warning it would show through when corrected in the midweek reportings

 

[Summerbuzz]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

this is a real time unladed model for the US. it's the one they refer to in the whitehouse briefings.

Somethings up with that, I looked at that data last week and I imagine I would have remembered if it projected the UK with 60,000 deaths, 3/4 of the US total. There are notes saying EU countries were updated over the weekend. It projects us with a peak of 3,000 deaths per day. The range for estimates for total deaths is from 55,000 up? I'm pessimistic, but I really don't know about that.

If you look at the prediction graphs, they look a little counter intuitive. Every trajectory sharpens very steeply for a long period of time. Right from where the actual data ends. We're looking at a sharper increase than we had two weeks ago? Is something off with our reporting? Yes, there are issues. Is something up with the way this model handles that? I bloody well hope so.

As much as I feel the death figures are clearly lagging, and 'We're not at ICU capacity' sounds better than it is, it's a hell of a job to extrapolate a situation 3, 4 times as bad as any other European country unfolding.

 

[Claytop]

There's a UK version of that graph...
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Can’t be right surely?

 

[Chippy_boy]

There's a UK version of that graph...
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Thank God, that site has some profound and fundamental errors which make me question its validity completely.

For example, look at their projected daily death toll (UK):



The bottom end of their estimates is circa 1,000 per day. At the top end, it's circa 10,000 per day. A HUGE difference.

Now look at their project death totals:



The range of possible outcomes in now way correlates with the first graph. Their basic maths are wrong. The area under the curve (1st graph) gives the total number of deaths, and the difference between the top curve (highest daily death rate projection) and the bottom one (lowest rate) is huge. But this is not reflected properly in the 66,000 total deaths calculation.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Can’t be right surely?

No, I don't think it can be.

 

[xgorton]

Doesn’t that have all the weeks care home figures included today though?

BBC say it's just hospital patients.

 

[Cheesy]

Can’t be right surely?

That graph predicted 1258 deaths on 6th April and 1233 deaths today.

Something not right with their data hopefully.

 

[domalino]

Show proof that all those prescribing it are doing so as part of a trial please.

Well we both know there are articles out there saying there will be UK trials, but instead of asking me to prove a negative (although I can, official communication here), why don't you come up with a shred of proof that they're being prescribed as a treatment outside of trials.