COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[bluejon]

Well on several occasions you have stated that what is happening is not a wave.
In the meantime I don't recall reading any credible commentator anywhere denying that the economy is being damaged.

The second wave concern goes back to the beginning of the year when we were all warned that in the Spanish Flu, it was the second wave that did the most damage. That is not even slightly close to what is going on at the moment, in fact the 'second wave' isn't even close to what happened in the first. We could maybe call it a slight backwash? The point is, the numbers were expected to go up around this time of year, the concern was by how much. Somehow the narrative has switched so that any slight rise is now 'a wave'. This is not a wave caused by a sudden massive deadly resurgence of the virus, it is numbers increasing due to already ill people catching the virus. There is however about to be a tsunami of job losses.

 

[Cityfan]

The numbers are expected to go up because there appears to be little immunitiy and people tend to go indoorts , they are expected to go up further as winter progresses . Our ability to treat the virus appears to have improved a little .
Spanish flu is spectacularly irrelelvant other than the fairly obvious fact that if a virus leaves a lot of people uninfected then there are a lot of people still susceptible.

 

[bluejon]

The numbers are expected to go up because there appears to be little immunitiy and people tend to go indoorts , they are expected to go up further as winter progresses . Our ability to treat the virus appears to have improved a little .
Spanish flu is spectacularly irrelelvant other than the fairly obvious fact that if a virus leaves a lot of people uninfected then there are a lot of people still susceptible.

It's not irrelevant at all, it's exactly what we were being warned about repeatedly at the beginning of the year and it hasn't happened, thank fuck.

 

[hilts]

The second wave concern goes back to the beginning of the year when we were all warned that in the Spanish Flu, it was the second wave that did the most damage. That is not even slightly close to what is going on at the moment, in fact the 'second wave' isn't even close to what happened in the first. We could maybe call it a slight backwash? The point is, the numbers were expected to go up around this time of year, the concern was by how much. Somehow the narrative has switched so that any slight rise is now 'a wave'. This is not a wave caused by a sudden massive deadly resurgence of the virus, it is numbers increasing due to already ill people catching the virus. There is however about to be a tsunami of job losses.

I believe it's too early to make the assumptions you have. Sept has seen schools university's and naturally more people going back to work. Also the low death figures during this month has changed attitudes. All of these have been staggered to various degrees as well.

Add in the time lapse from being infected showing signs getting tested and symptoms getting worse etc then we are only talking a few weeks. I think by mid October we will have a better idea of how quickly things will escalate.

 

[bluejon]

I believe it's too early to make the assumptions you have. Sept has seen schools university's and naturally more people going back to work. Also the low death figures during this month has changed attitudes. All of these have been staggered to various degrees as well.

Add in the time lapse from being infected showing signs getting tested and symptoms getting worse etc then we are only talking a few weeks. I think by mid October we will have a better idea of how quickly things will escalate.

I said three weeks ago it was too early to make that assumption and it would need 2-3 weeks to be more certain. I'm now certain. The numbers aren't increasing in the exponential manner they did earlier in the year, we can start to relax. But we aren't. It's all good and well people saying we need to hold on a bit longer just to see, that isn't going to work for the thousands who are going to be out of work soon. I'm not saying ignore it, funnel the money currently being spent towards giving those who need the help they need, but the NHS can't function if the treasury is taking a double hit from loss of tax revenue and a massive hike in benefits spending due to people being off work, nevermind the social cost of what is coming. It's a mess.

 

[True_Blue69]

It's a tough situation but the big danger in your view, and it's a similar view to what happened when this virus hit, is that if youre wrong the surge can happen so quick that by the time you realise it and add measures it's too late.

I think we are on a path now in the countries psyche which is near impossible to get off. Remember an acceptable number deaths is individual to everyone.

Appreciate that and that is why it is such a difficult position for the decision makers. Realistically the vaccine may not come even by the end of next year, so what is the other option. If it got to 2-300 deaths a day and was escalating then clearly we would need to review things but at the moment it is a trickle rather than what we saw earlier in the year when it was out of control.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

It's not irrelevant at all, it's exactly what we were being warned about repeatedly at the beginning of the year and it hasn't happened, thank fuck.

Likewise, it’s encouraging to see the slow down in planned redundancies from August. It’s still a grim time for many people but those who can afford to should support local businesses to stop the situation getting worse IMHO

 

[hilts]

I said three weeks ago it was too early to make that assumption and it would need 2-3 weeks to be more certain. I'm now certain. The numbers aren't increasing in the exponential manner they did earlier in the year, we can start to relax. But we aren't. It's all good and well people saying we need to hold on a bit longer just to see, that isn't going to work for the thousands who are going to be out of work soon. I'm not saying ignore it, funnel the money currently being spent towards giving those who need the help they need, but the NHS can't function if the treasury is taking a double hit from loss of tax revenue and a massive hike in benefits spending due to people being off work, nevermind the social cost of what is coming. It's a mess.

Let's hope you are right unfortunately for you the govt doesn't think you are. The concerns for mental and physical health away from Covid are very real.

The whole thing is a shit show tbh.

 

[Blue Hefner]

 

[Gabriel]

So much mis-speaking...

 

[blue b4 the moon]

The second wave concern goes back to the beginning of the year when we were all warned that in the Spanish Flu, it was the second wave that did the most damage. That is not even slightly close to what is going on at the moment, in fact the 'second wave' isn't even close to what happened in the first. We could maybe call it a slight backwash? The point is, the numbers were expected to go up around this time of year, the concern was by how much. Somehow the narrative has switched so that any slight rise is now 'a wave'. This is not a wave caused by a sudden massive deadly resurgence of the virus, it is numbers increasing due to already ill people catching the virus. There is however about to be a tsunami of job losses.

There's no figure that represents a second wave unless we take it as more deaths than the first impact from CV.Everyone's interpretation of what a constitutes a wave or ripple is different.

I don't agree with your points in the main in this thread but do enjoy your posts. To be fair you are looking at it from a totally differing view based purely on figures/probabilities that most of us don't do so it is interesting to read.

 

[hilts]

Appreciate that and that is why it is such a difficult position for the decision makers. Realistically the vaccine may not come even by the end of next year, so what is the other option. If it got to 2-300 deaths a day and was escalating then clearly we would need to review things but at the moment it is a trickle rather than what we saw earlier in the year when it was out of control.

That's the problem if it got to 300 deaths a day and you reviewed things put them into action and waited for them to take effect. It wouldn't be 300 a day anymore.

We don't have enough information to make a solid decision. We are reliant on arseholes to do it for us. And plenty have given up.on them.

 

[hilts]

So much mis-speaking...

What's a lower income?

 

[bluejon]

There's no figure that represents a second wave unless we take it was more deaths than the first impact from CV.Everyone's interpretation of what a constitutes a wave or ripple is different.

I don't agree with your points in the main in this thread but do enjoy your posts. To be fair you are looking at it from a totally differing view based purely on figures/probabilities that most of us don't do so it is interesting to read.

One thing that has made me smile, and this is not aimed at any specific poster at all (i'm mostly thinking of social media here), but reading people suddenly discussing things like True and False positives etc, becoming medical experts overnight. It's a bit like when the world cup comes along and all the ones who don't normally give a shit about football are suddenly explaining to you why Harry McGuire is one of the best defenders in the world.

 

[Blue Maverick]

Big chains like Ikea should just refuse entry to people not wearing masks, they can afford the extra security

they just take them off or wear round their neck once in. It’s like they are sticking their fingers upto the government when really it’s the rest of us they are doing it too, twats.

 

[Healdplace]

Scottish data again not good news.

2 deaths.

800 cases at a new record high of 13.1% positive.

303 in Greater Glasgow 167 Lanarkshire 164 Lothian

And 262 now in hospital - 44 in the last 24 hours - by miles the most in recent months.

And 25 now on ventilatirs - up 3 in a day.

These numbers are worrying and I know happy clappers will go on about the numbers in April. But this is not April it is now. And now is escalating very obviously unless you choose not to see that as some appear to want to do.

Cannot blame them. Nobody belkieves it will get as bad as then for many reasons. Bit in relartiver terms we are now in trouble That this is getting worse daily is now very obvious. We need to face reality not try to find ways to explain it away.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Scottish data again not good news.

2 deaths.

800 cases at a new record high of 13.1% positive.

303 in Greater Glasgow 167 Lanarkshire 164 Lothian

And 262 now in hospital - 44 in the last 24 hours - by miles the most in recent months.

And 25 now on ventilatirs - up 3 in a day.

These numbers are worrying and I know happy clappers will go on about the numbers in April. But this is not April it is now. And now is escalating very obviously unless you choose not to see that as some appear to want to do.

Cannot blame them. Nobody belkieves it will get as bad as then for many reasons. Bit in relartiver terms we are now in trouble That this is getting worse daily is now very obvious. We need to face reality not try to find ways to explain it away.

Happy clappers? Oh dear.
I suppose we should discuss this no further then?

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon has just said pretty much what I did above and that tomorrow will announce more severe restrictions because action has to be taken, deaths are rising and thre is mounting evidence that younger peopke are now passing it on to older ones who are getting sicker and entering hospital.

It will not be a full lockdown. She adds.

 

[Healdplace]

Happy clappers? Oh dear.
I suppose we should discuss this no further then?

Of course not. And by happy clappers I mean those who just say this is no worse than flu and life should just go back to normal as fast as possible.

Perhaps it was an ill chosen phrase. So glad to withdraw it if it helps.

I am not talking about reasonable disagreement over the data or what we should do. That is why this thread is here and welcome.

Everybody wants that normality back as fast as possible. But to get there from here with winter coming involves not saying 1000 a day died in April and only 50 yesterday. or whatever. Or 12,000 cases today was many times more in April.

These are indeed realities and I am not suggesting it will get remotely that bad again. But you also have to not just ignore the escalation and hope it stops escalating. As it might. But even if that were a credible argument and I can see why some might think it is, the truth is that no government is going to sleep walk into weeks or months of rising deaths and case numbers plastered over the media day after day.

They will act in mitigation of the numbers whether we want them to or not.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

One thing that has made me smile, and this is not aimed at any specific poster at all (i'm mostly thinking of social media here), but reading people suddenly discussing things like True and False positives etc, becoming medical experts overnight. It's a bit like when the world cup comes along and all the ones who don't normally give a shit about football are suddenly explaining to you why Harry McGuire is one of the best defenders in the world.

It is true that some of us talk some shite including myself lol, but there were some expert and amateur Bluemooners who seemed to know a bit more than the National authorities at times during the first wave. Examples include, Cityfan evidencing that ventilated ICU patients were deteriorating faster than other ICU patients IIRC. There was also a couple of posters who had identified that cases / infections were doubling every 2 days when SAGE said it was every 3 days. There were even recent observations that the number of positive tests in parts of the country didn’t seem to be reflected in the daily case figures. It’s a bit worrying!