COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[hilts]

It has to be vaccine.

I think that has always been the case and there is no viable alternative. Huge undertaking i give you but you cant go chasing herd immunity when it may never be reached due to changes in the virus.

What kind of restrictions would you put in place until/if a vaccine can be implemented

 

[BigJoe#1]

They killed 10x more than other Scandi countries.

... but less on all counts (total/per capita) than the UK.

Seriuosly, have a look at the link I posted earlier, I think youll find it hard to comprehend (because I do) how the people of Stockholm are walking around without masks and happily going into pubs.

I was there a couple of weeks ago and found it strange when comparing to UK. I will be back there in about four weeks, but in talking to people who are there now, they find it strange too.

 

[purplenose]

What if there won't be a vaccine?

Then we are in very big trouble on a global scale that most have not even dared to imagine. Fortunately I am sure there will be a vaccine infact many vaccines these of course may have to keep changing much like the flu jab.

 

[BigJoe#1]

It has to be vaccine.

I think that has always been the case and there is no viable alternative. Huge undertaking i give you but you cant go chasing herd immunity when it may never be reached due to changes in the virus.

Totally understand your argument, except that we will have to basically stay as we are until a successful vaccine has been rolled out - that could take years - there surely has to be another way?

 

[True_Blue69]

London would suggest it may be? Do you think so?

And Italy in comparison to other similar European countries.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1.full.pdf

this medical paper says 72 is the median age In hospital and 80 is the median age of deaths.

where did you get that from?

It’s right. I’ve been looking at the critical care data from before and after September 1st and up to October 1st and, although I know I’ll get slaughtered for it, there is actually quite a lot of good news.

Since September 1st, there have been 527 admissions to critical care, with Covid. Of the 211 with an outcome, 80% have been discharged and 20% have died, which compares to August 31st and before of 60% discharged and 40% dying, which was much better than March and April as it was. The average length of stay on CC is now 4.5 days, down from 10.5 days.
Numbers requiring Advanced Respiratory Support are diwn from 72% to 20% and now they’re only needing it for 4 days as opposed to 13 days. Renal support is down from 27% to 5% and only for 2 days as opposed to 8.

The characteristics of the patients have changed as well. First number is from Sept 1st, second number is before.
White 61% (66%), Male 71.3% (70.1%), Asian 25.2% (15.9%), Black 7.1% (9.6%).
Most deprived 40% (26%), next most deprived 26% (24%), middle 14% (19%), second least deprived 10% (16%), least deprived 10% (14%).

 

[PragueBlue]

Then we are in very big trouble on a global scale that most have not even dared to imagine. Fortunately I am sure there will be a vaccine infact many vaccines these of course may have to keep changing much like the flu jab.

There are a number of coronaviruses (including the common cold, SARS, MERS) and there has never been a vaccine against them yet. So there is no guarantee that an effective one will be found. Of course we haven't probably put as much money, time and effort into finding one before.

We have to hope there will be an effective vaccine but we also need a plan in case there isn't.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Ok fair enough, I have to say I find alot of the things he comes out with as narcissistic and he certainly doesnt help himself sometimes with his childish comments. Today he discharged himself even though he was still contagious, his subsequent speech was all about him with no. thought about the people he had put at risk unecesarilly. His economic policies are ok. His trade stand off with China will probably pay dividends for the US in the long run. And i like the fact that he went and spoke to the North Korea leader. But I dont find him at all gracious or pleasant as a human being. I cant really equate with him being a great leader.

fair summary that.

 

[purplenose]

What kind of restrictions would you put in place until/if a vaccine can be implemented

If I was ITK as to when at least the elderly and vulnerable plus key workers can realistically be vaccinated I could offer an opinion on that.

If as some suggest this could be this winter then I would be tempted to offer those at risk a good financial and care incentive to shield until then and therefore perhaps leaving those less at risk to operate in a less restricted manner.

If longer I think we have little alternative to continue with lock downs and so on. Preferably not administered and imposed in such a shambolic ill thought out manner. Sadly as we are unlikely to find a new government before this shit show is over that is not likely and no more so were the other bunch of cock wombles in no10, so expect more fuck wittery in spades before this is done.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

... but less on all counts (total/per capita) than the UK.

Seriuosly, have a look at the link I posted earlier, I think youll find it hard to comprehend (because I do) how the people of Stockholm are walking around without masks and happily going into pubs.

I was there a couple of weeks ago and found it strange when comparing to UK. I will be back there in about four weeks, but in talking to people who are there now, they find it strange too.

I can't travel there now, but I talk to Swedes at work every day.

Sweden is not yet a success story. Its far too soon to say if anywhere is.

But so far, they've killed far, far more people than any comparable country.

There's no evidence they have herd immunity.

What they've done well is avoid the confusing, changing messages. But that doesn't mean what they've fine translates here, where we've seen voluntary restrictions ignored to an extent that means the Sweden approach just didn't work, when it was very briefly tried.

And cases are rising there too.

 

[BlueHammer85]

What if there won't be a vaccine?

try to keep hospital admissions down and keep the economy going , basically what we’re doing now.

 

[BigJoe#1]

I can't travel there now, but I talk to Swedes at work every day.

Sweden is not yet a success story. Its far too soon to say if anywhere is.

But so far, they've killed far, far more people than any comparable country.

There's no evidence they have herd immunity.

What they've done well is avoid the confusing, changing messages. But that doesn't mean what they've fine translates here, where we've seen voluntary restrictions ignored to an extent that means the Sweden approach just didn't work, when it was very briefly tried.

And cases are rising there too.

Do you ask them about their logic of not wearing masks? I'm genuinely interested as they are as I think we agree, much more compliant that the British.

Compare their current lifestyle to ours and it is far superior, with less new cases and less deaths, why and how is this the case? I would appreciate a Swedish view point on this. My daughter who lives there hasn't a clue,

 

[roubaixtuesday]

What if there won't be a vaccine?

Then we need a plan B

Trials will read out in the next few months.

Until then, suppress the virus. Use test, track and trace aggressively to allow opening up as far as possible.

See Germany.

 

[purplenose]

There are a number of coronaviruses (including the common cold, SARS, MERS) and there has never been a vaccine against them yet. So there is no guarantee that an effective one will be found. Of course we haven't probably put as much money, time and effort into finding one before.

We have to hope there will be an effective vaccine but we also need a plan in case there isn't.

I have heard this "they never found a vaccine for a cold" so often and not once has those saying it thought why that maybe?

Mainly because there has never been a point where virtually every nerd with a medical degree and a microscope on the planet has an unlimited budget to find one. Why would they have? Why when there are so many more killer illnesses would they have given much time to finding a magic manflu cure?? Ask yourself why they now have those budgets. That cold cure might well be an added bonus found as a consequence.

Not long ago nobody thought it would have been possible to send rockets into space, or fly 400 people across the atlantic in a few hours. Then along came world war two and the impossible happened and someone invented the jet engine, and rocket motors, and for that matter all manner of medical miracles previously thought impossible. All because the world was in a life and death struggle much as it is now.

 

[simon23]

trapped at home now for 14 days - someone at work tested positive for it and I had been in close contact with that person

No symptoms myself at the moment and feel absolutey fine but not allowed out - so so pissed off. Went for a test today so should get the results in 48hrs - even if clear Im still not allowed back to work!

2 weeks and only international football to keep me going!!!!!

 

[Cityfan]

It’s right. I’ve been looking at the critical care data from before and after September 1st and up to October 1st and, although I know I’ll get slaughtered for it, there is actually quite a lot of good news.

Since September 1st, there have been 527 admissions to critical care, with Covid. Of the 211 with an outcome, 80% have been discharged and 20% have died, which compares to August 31st and before of 60% discharged and 40% dying, which was much better than March and April as it was. The average length of stay on CC is now 4.5 days, down from 10.5 days.
Numbers requiring Advanced Respiratory Support are diwn from 72% to 20% and now they’re only needing it for 4 days as opposed to 13 days. Renal support is down from 27% to 5% and only for 2 days as opposed to 8.

The characteristics of the patients have changed as well. First number is from Sept 1st, second number is before.
White 61% (66%), Male 71.3% (70.1%), Asian 25.2% (15.9%), Black 7.1% (9.6%).
Most deprived 40% (26%), next most deprived 26% (24%), middle 14% (19%), second least deprived 10% (16%), least deprived 10% (14%).

It's looking good but we may not be quite comparing like with like. The basic numbers on admission look better in the current report which means that they may be just accepting healthier patients because the ITU's are under less stress at the moment.
There are also a large number of patients whose are still in itu and it is quite possible that the longer stay patients may have a worse outcome on average than the short duration patients so the mortality may get worse in this cohort than is currently being reported. Should still be better than first wave though when outcomes improved throught he wave.

 

[hilts]

Just thinking out of the box but if unemployment rises massively and jobs are lost some forever the govt will have to continue giving financial help at an eye watering level.

People are currently flagging with the measures and students and kids seem to be spreading it amongst themselves and naturally others.

Rather than have millions unemployed and stop start education which will put kids so far back they may never catch up something different needs to at least be explored.

Could we not restart schools and uni next Sept so in effect they just return to the same year.

People in obvious medical danger and the elderly isolate. Those working get their wages paid by the government and company's can take on new people to replace them temporarily.

The country as a whole can have some basic rules ie masks indoors where possible and on all public transport. Kids can still go to school on a voluntary basis but an emphasis on outdoor activities.

I don't see a problem with the school leaving age being 17 for example in this age of people living and working longer.

Bit mad I know but no bubbles pubs closing etc....

 

[hilts]

If I was ITK as to when at least the elderly and vulnerable plus key workers can realistically be vaccinated I could offer an opinion on that.

If as some suggest this could be this winter then I would be tempted to offer those at risk a good financial and care incentive to shield until then and therefore perhaps leaving those less at risk to operate in a less restricted manner.

If longer I think we have little alternative to continue with lock downs and so on. Preferably not administered and imposed in such a shambolic ill thought out manner. Sadly as we are unlikely to find a new government before this shit show is over that is not likely and no more so were the other bunch of cock wombles in no10, so expect more fuck wittery in spades before this is done.

I think this could have gone a lot better without this government and I think the civil service from a distance seems pretty poor as well. I don't expect lessons will be learnt.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Do you ask them about their logic of not wearing masks? I'm genuinely interested as they are as I think we agree, much more compliant that the British.

Compare their current lifestyle to ours and it is far superior, with less new cases and less deaths, why and how is this the case? I would appreciate a Swedish view point on this. My daughter who lives there hasn't a clue,

I think it's pretty simple.

The Swedes follow the voluntary rules better than we follow the compulsory ones.

It's much easier because:
- social security is more generous of you're affected
- far less overcrowded housing
- much more dispersed population.

You can't translate Göteborg to Mänchester!

And like I said above, except for the UK they've killed more people than anyone in Europe, and still crashed their economy. So it's not all ginger peachy.

[Edit. Re. Masks, they're pretty marginal AFAIK. Every little helps, but not a game changer]

 

[purplenose]

I think the only other thing would be an effective treatment that would considerably lessen the danger of actually having this virus, which may well happen.

Should neither of those happen and happen in the coming months to put it bluntly the worlds economies will have tanked to the point we will be well on the way to WW3. There will be uprisings, states failing, millions in every nation unemployed and in poverty.

There are plenty who understand this all too well, why do you think there has been so much money thrown at it? They know exactly where this leads if it is not beaten very quickly indeed.