COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Article which explains why daily death rates is unreliable accept too many have died but the time for review is some months away.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries
If the upwards shift of daily deaths was something like 10% then it wouldn’t be an issue, a blip if you will. But to have 100% increase on a continuing basis...
As the article says, not all the excess deaths will be directly attributable to Covid, some of them will be indirectly related (not visiting A&E, operations cancelled etc), but it’s not even a statistical blip, it’s a real trend
 
and if you consider the 8th of April was peak death meaning peak infection was around 23 days before that then the "lockdown" hasn't really done anything that wasn't already happening with the social distancing that came before.
Indeed. Imagine if the lockdown has proved to be for no gain, which will only become apparent when the all cause mortality and the excess deaths come out for the year. I do know that deaths from ischemic heart disease is down by 30% over the last month. Now, either there has been a miracle or many of those deaths have been incorrectly ascribed to C-19. There is also still a big gap between out of hospital deaths that mention C-19 on the death certificate, which implies that there are many other things in play here and that many deaths at home and indeed in care homes may well be down to people not seeking treatment for other things as well as this virus.
 
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Experts very confident on a vaccine. Read 80 percent.
How can someone be confident though? You either have one or you don't surely? Do you know what i mean? I just hope they aren't telling us what we want to hear rather than tellinh the truth that this could take years or not happen at all.
 
How can someone be confident though? You either have one or you don't surely? Do you know what i mean? I just hope they aren't telling us what we want to hear rather than tellinh the truth that this could take years or not happen at all.

It’s Oxford University professors mate not politicians. Working closely with Astrazenica.
 
Is it time to relook at this lockdown and think about just ending it? I ask this because there does seem to be a collective madness overcoming us and blithe acceptance of government statements, not to mention the unending damage we are doing to the economy.
If life is going to be about everyone being much poorer, not speaking to anyone when going out, covering your face so you can’t see anyone anyway, not touching anyone, not going to the pub, sitting in straight lines in restaurants, having every other seat empty in cinemas, or the theatre, not going on holiday and having no sport whilst telling anyone over 70 or people with comorbidities that the only way to ‘live’ is to stay in and not see anyone, then I’m not convinced we are ‘doing the right thing’.

The ‘Ferguson model’, which panicked Trump and Johnson so much, was reused by Uppsala University to highlight the risk to Sweden. It predicted if Sweden ‘did nothing’, by May 1st, there’d be 80000 dead. If they just maintained voluntary social distancing, that number would be 40000. They did the latter and, as of May 1st they’ve had 2700 deaths.

I found this transport usage map interesting, which certainly suggests that people were doing the right thing as soon as social distancing was encouraged and the lockdown didn’t increase the pace of that, at all.
EW72McaWkAILREj.jpeg
One problem with it, the selfishnes of people in this country, you saw it with panic buying as a country we are twats, you saw the bellends in Benidorm out drinking on lockdown, give them an inch etc. Other european countries seem to have more self discipline than us, if we had been allowed to carry on in the hope people wouldve adhered to the rules as long as this youd be sadly mistaken, I can take you to parts of Oldham where they are quite blatanly not bothering, this would be mirrored all over this country. Also the size and the way we live here doesnt exactly endear itself to seperation, lots of urban areas, I guess places like Sweden arent as densley populated as us. weve had nearly 30000 deaths id expect that to be at least trebeld in Covid deaths if we hadnt done lockdown plus add to that all the add on deaths from RTCs etc and you can see it wouldve been carnage. Our way out of this is by creating an "isolation nation" pubs, bars reataurants can now work out how to function within these "rules", suprmarkets have achieved it and workplaces have to a degree.
As humans we ahve overcome far worse than this, with a little bit of planning and thought most but not all of us could come out soon but it has to be done right and for those not conforming have to brought to account.
 
I prefer to track the deaths in hospitals and hospital admissions/critical care beds figures as those are the constants that we have had throughout. For example, I think at it's peak deaths in hospitals was 8-900 per day, whereas that last few days have been just over 400.

Where that data is available then yeah, but when trying to compare country to country where that may not be available but excess deaths are it gives a decent view of which areas are getting hit hardest.
 
How can someone be confident though? You either have one or you don't surely? Do you know what i mean? I just hope they aren't telling us what we want to hear rather than tellinh the truth that this could take years or not happen at all.
If big pharma are involved, there’s always a need for scepticism mate. How many times have you read about a ‘miracle’ drug for this, that and the other? Not that it might not be true and I’m hoping the university involvement is more scientific than the usually relentlessly positive drug company view, as the university don’t have a share price to maintain..
 
Do you really beleive the public sector 'bear the brunt' of the economic consequences? I don't see that in the slightest.

Otherwise, absolutely valid points, don't disagree with any of that.

Council's had a c40% decrease in funding from central government plus they had to take on extra liabilities. For example, council tax support, which was previously paid for by central government, is now paid for by councils. In respect of my local council, that is a £32m pa liability. There are many other ways in which local government finances have been adversely impacted since then.

Most sectors have suffered, undoubtedly. I just happen to know more about local government, so I thought I would give an indication of how councils have felt the impact of austerity. Ultimately, this has a disproportionate impact on the old and the vulnerable.
 
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