COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Nebuchadnezzar]

https://forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk/...scussion-thread.345088/page-535#post-12630590

 

[JASR]

Unfortunately the obsession of some on here with the death league is morbid.

I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with morbidity, more with factual (and transferable) statistics.

Putting aside political point scoring (both sides), a simple graph showing daily death rates vs expected death rates shows how bad it is

From a few weeks ago:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

UK: 100% rise in expected daily death rates
New York: 400%
Lombardy (Italy): 300%

It's a bit more than just a mild flu.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

If any way of listening to him, anyone obsessed with counting deaths should listen to this UK statistician professor Ian Diamond that was on Andrew Marr this morning, explained very well about how we are right at the top with regards to official reporting and keen to get deaths registered faster than practically any other country. Then, as we’ve said on here, confirmed that you won’t really be able to compare deaths until all of this is over.

True Ranny, plus we didn’t have the testing capacity 6 weeks ago and if we had we might have taken a different approach as the Minister has just said. The key thing is that the numbers of cases continues to be managed down and there will be plenty of time for a review, probably next year.

That said, I hope we become self sustaining / reliant in terms of testing capacity, PPE manufacturing for the future.

 

[ganganvince]

I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with morbidity, more with factual (and transferable) statistics.

Putting aside political point scoring (both sides), a simple graph showing daily death rates vs expected death rates shows how bad it is

From a few weeks ago:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

UK: 100% rise in expected daily death rates
New York: 400%
Lombardy (Italy): 300%

It's a bit more than just a mild flu.

Article which explains why daily death rates is unreliable accept too many have died but the time for review is some months away.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with morbidity, more with factual (and transferable) statistics.

Putting aside political point scoring (both sides), a simple graph showing daily death rates vs expected death rates shows how bad it is

From a few weeks ago:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

UK: 100% rise in expected daily death rates
New York: 400%
Lombardy (Italy): 300%

It's a bit more than just a mild flu.

That’s a good article JASR. I have been in contact with friends in Bergamo during the crisis and they were living in fear. They had no qualms about abiding by the lockdown.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Here we go, for anyone interested, it’s the link to Professor Ian Diamond, head of ONS, on the Andrew Marr show this morning discussing deaths figures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52519440?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5eae81d6c68e4706631e45d0&UK death toll 'could be towards 30,000'&2020-05-03T08:36:32.165Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:89fcb7c5-28e9-432b-bbb9-30ffd412dd9f&pinned_post_asset_id=5eae81d6c68e4706631e45d0&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Coatigan]

I say the brunt because since 2007 ive lost £5k in real terms from my wage, even before this when the world was recovering and execs still getting million pound bonuses and MPs getting rises I along with many others who are now been applauded were been shafted by these happy clappers from parliamnent

So many people have a lost much much more than that. Private sector went from 100% to 0 for many, rather than a 10-20% drop.

I'm trying to avoid making sweeping generalizations, but my issue is the 'bearing the brunt' comment. Might not have been your intention, but makes it sound like the public sector is somehow suffering and carrying everyone else at the expense of the rest
When, i think, the opposite is the case. Perhaps i've taken the wrong suggestion out of it, and what is otherwise a totally readonable and valid post.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

No I'm furloughed how about you?

I started working self employed last Summer so I’ve had zero income for most of the lockdown and won’t get any benefits.

 

[Paul1970]

The uk is the only place that is gonna come out of lockdown with over 600 deaths a day still happening . Too little too late I’m afraid .

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Is it time to relook at this lockdown and think about just ending it? I ask this because there does seem to be a collective madness overcoming us and blithe acceptance of government statements, not to mention the unending damage we are doing to the economy.
If life is going to be about everyone being much poorer, not speaking to anyone when going out, covering your face so you can’t see anyone anyway, not touching anyone, not going to the pub, sitting in straight lines in restaurants, having every other seat empty in cinemas, or the theatre, not going on holiday and having no sport whilst telling anyone over 70 or people with comorbidities that the only way to ‘live’ is to stay in and not see anyone, then I’m not convinced we are ‘doing the right thing’.

The ‘Ferguson model’, which panicked Trump and Johnson so much, was reused by Uppsala University to highlight the risk to Sweden. It predicted if Sweden ‘did nothing’, by May 1st, there’d be 80000 dead. If they just maintained voluntary social distancing, that number would be 40000. They did the latter and, as of May 1st they’ve had 2700 deaths.

I found this transport usage map interesting, which certainly suggests that people were doing the right thing as soon as social distancing was encouraged and the lockdown didn’t increase the pace of that, at all.