COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Blue Maverick]

I am just about to have my cornflakes, could the government let me know how much milk I would pour onto them. I am not sure.

Cornflakes you might as well eat the cardboard.

 

[Mon Autre]

We are mass testing.

We're mass testing people to tell them if they currently have the illness and now having to send tests to be processed in the US. It's taking up to 5 days for people to get results by which time most of the benefit has been lost because it's too late to trace people. So we might be testing people but it's largely meaningless at the moment.

 

[Rammy Blue]

The 50 page document is apparently going to released at 2pm.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

When someone tells me that R is between 0.5 and 0.9 it sounds like a guess.

Based on regional variations of imagine. At the briefing on Thursday (?) they said London was around 0.5.

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Based on regional variations of imagine. At the briefing on Thursday (?) they said London was around 0.5.

Cheers.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Cornflakes you might as well eat the cardboard.

I will wait until the official guidance at 2pm before making a final decision.

 

[Sir peace frog]

It’s 42 mate

How are you, didn't you end up in hospital last night

 

[Cityfan]

it’s a tricky one. I still don’t understand the logic if junior school kids going into school ahead of senior school kids.

senior school kids have more important learning to do and Generally can follow social distancing rules better I would expect.

I think there is an element of practicality about it for parents etc. Young children cannot look after themselves so grandparents are often needed whereas older children can so folk can work and leave them at home, particularly single parent households.

 

[Cityfan]

As I was banned from the other thread before I could explain why the government hasn't explicitly explained how R is calculated at its press briefings when responding to the claim that people shouldn't be expected to look for detailed information themselves. Here is why it's probably not a good idea to explain how R is calculated on the nightly press briefings.


"An important epidemiological understanding of 2019-nCoV is concerned with its transmissibility, quantified by the basic reproduction number R0 and the effective reproduction number R .

R0 is the expected number of secondary infectious cases generated by an infectious case in a susceptible population. R is the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infectious case once an epidemic is underway.

R= R0x,

where x∈ (0, 1) is the proportion of the population susceptible.

R is calculated as follows:
R=K2(LxD)/K(L+D)+1

where L is the average latent period, D the average latent infectious period, K the logarithmic growth rate of the case counts as reported."


I can only imagine the gasps of realisation across the nation as the chalk scratches it's way across the blackboard and reveals the equation.

edited because the forum doesn't accept mathematical notation.

Trouble is except for L and D the other variables are not easily estimated.

 

[Mon Autre]

Listening to Piers Morgan here, fuck me it’s painful. He’s even got Sturgeon on now to carry on his ranting.

Apparently Raab on BBC has said it’s ok to meet family members in a park as long as you stay 2 metres apart, Morgan going off his head about this and getting Sturgeon to agree with him.

Now, am I missing something, but what exactly would be wrong with meeting your mum and dad in a park as long as you were 2 metres apart? Surely that’s like happening to meet them by complete accident, or like me when I take the shopping around to my mum’s and she’s apart from me?

I don't see that there is a huge problem with meeting a family member in the park (or anyone else) if social distancing is being observed. But there's an issue (as we've seen in London) that on nice days everybody turns out all at once to do it in notoriously busy/crowded parks. Especially when we're allowed to do so little else. It can get out of hand quickly. It will create more non essential journeys. The government does need to foresee these issues and address them. Common sense isn't something everyone is blessed with unfortunately and simply saying "you're thick if you don't think the guidance is clear" doesn't protect us from these so-called thick people who then become a risk to others they encounter who have genuinely no choice but to be out and carrying out essential activities.