COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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It's called statistical modeling where you throw in all the standard behaviours and the risk of each where the goal is to reduce R below, say, 0.75. And you draw the line where the combined distribution's upper quartile of R is at 0.75.
Work back from there and you get 14 minutes is OK but 15 isn't.

So, complete bollocks then.
 
For those who keep saying lockdown is over, I disagree.
Roads are nothing like they were.
Children are still off school.
Many many trades are not at work.
Still not seen my family outside of this house.
Hardly a plane in the sky.
No sport.
2 meter at every shop.
No routine operations.
Grandparents not seeing grandchildren.
Children not playing with friends.
Government paying wages.
Cinemas theatres closed.
Pubs and restaurants closed.
Hair down our backs.
Can’t drive outside of England unless it’s work.
No summer holidays.
No exams in school,

tbh the list is endless, to me it feels very much like I’m still trapped in a pandemic and the odd relaxation in rules has little effect on me.
 
"people can also now spend time outdoors subject to: not meeting up with any more than one person from outside your household; continued compliance with social distancing guidelines to remain two metres (6ft) away from people outside your household"

that's the official text. For me that is not that confusing: My wife and I can meet my mum, then my dad in the afternoon, and then just me alone can go and see my cousin and his wife. All of this must be outside so i'll probably sit or stand in their gardens or perhaps the driveway for the latter. I'll do this at 2m (or more) and i might even delay the cousin to the next day not to overdo it, using common sense.

BUT. Hancock says on TV that it "should only happen in public spaces" so is that the garden off? B'cos to me, as i can get to it externally, that seems safer than 10 random families around my poor mam. And what am I reading about 1 person (i.e. just me) meeting only other one person - the official text says nothing of the sort?

What i'm driving at is why do we have a relatively clear document (it still has problems but it's ok) which is being elaborated on by politicians, seemingly ad-hoc?
 
A couple or three questions:

- how are they deciding who gets the test?
Presumably as a lot seem to be posted out, these are ad hoc applications for a test
What could be done better to make the testing more useful/directed?

- is there a daily count of the number of people in or released from hospital?
This seems more useful than the number of people who are infected.

- what is causing the continuing increase in numbers?
General asymptomatic spread, with some direct infection in places like hospitals?
It seems this continuing increase won't actually stop?
 
"people can also now spend time outdoors subject to: not meeting up with any more than one person from outside your household; continued compliance with social distancing guidelines to remain two metres (6ft) away from people outside your household"

that's the official text. For me that is not that confusing: My wife and I can meet my mum, then my dad in the afternoon, and then just me alone can go and see my cousin and his wife. All of this must be outside so i'll probably sit or stand in their gardens or perhaps the driveway for the latter. I'll do this at 2m (or more) and i might even delay the cousin to the next day not to overdo it, using common sense.

BUT. Hancock says on TV that it "should only happen in public spaces" so is that the garden off? B'cos to me, as i can get to it externally, that seems safer than 10 random families around my poor mam. And what am I reading about 1 person (i.e. just me) meeting only other one person - the official text says nothing of the sort?

What i'm driving at is why do we have a relatively clear document (it still has problems but it's ok) which is being elaborated on by politicians, seemingly ad-hoc?

But what you're describing there means your mum is meeting more than one person from outside of her household at the same time. And then when meet your cousin and his wife you are meeting more than one person from outside of yours? Not trying to challenge you or anything, just trying to make sense of it. Am I misunderstanding it?
 
But what you're describing there means your mum is meeting more than one person from outside of her household at the same time. And then when meet your cousin and his wife you are meeting more than one person from outside of yours? Not trying to challenge you or anything, just trying to make sense of it. Am I misunderstanding it?

exactly what my second point is about - the guidance doc does not say whether it is you and you alone that meets one other person (and vice versa) or if it is your household that gets to meet one other person. If it's the former, that's actually pretty clear (but sadly quite restrictive, but there we are) but if it's the latter then you can get the permutations i'm talking about. Just a few more words in that extracted para would have helped.
 
Common sense is open to interpretation. A lot of what you described, to me lacks common sense.

I’m assuming your parents are elderly and you/they quite rightly don’t want them going to the supermarket and that they can’t order online. The common sense thing here would be for you to organise delivery to cut back on needless travel.

There’s plenty of questions I could pose around this and find further flaws in your ‘common sense’ approach but the main one I’ll highlight is bringing a child along with you. This could be seen as negligent let alone a lack of common sense. Having them along for shopping trips raises the chance of you both becoming infected, also should you be involved in a serious road incident that’s an additional person taking up NHS resources, just to help you carry a few bags.

This is not meant as a slight on you at all, just highlighting how people see ‘common sense’ differently. Therefore nothing should be left to interpretation of what common sense is and clear direct guidance/rules are required.
I broke no rules. You’re also making assumptions that you don’t have complete knowledge about.
 
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