COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Marvin]

I can't view the full article for paywall reasons but is this on the back of their article around a month or 6 weeks ago which suggested that the infection had been with us for a lot longer than the first reported cases and there's a good chance we already have developed a good herd immunity or is this totally separate findings? Pretty sure a LOT of doubt was cast upon that report I'm talking about.

Begs the question of why? If they're wrong then how have this group of respected academics at one of the best universities researched the virus and compiled a report on it only for them to be told that they're effectively talking shite. How have they got it so wrong? Or how has everyone else got it so wrong by not listening to them? Must admit, them talking about infections being with us in January didn't sit right with me because surely hospitals would have became overcrowded much sooner and it'd have been picked up on... But then again Oxford uni guys would be aware of this question too so surely for them to compile and submit such a report suggests they'd have some logical answers on that.

EDIT - Another thing. It's Oxford uni who are claiming they'll have a vaccine by autumn and they're going ahead to start producing it beforehand because of their confidence in its success. Are they just being really over optimistic about everything or are we not giving their work enough respect and credence?

They referenced that study a couple of days ago in a briefing.

Regarding the vaccine, how are we supposed to know? You'd have to be virologists and follow their papers and keep up to date with that research to know. Dr Fauci was quizzed by the US senate and he's quite a reserved and experienced chap and he said of the Moderna vaccine that it's possible it might be available in the Autumn/Winter.

There's some potentially very important discussion going on about challenge vaccine tests where instead of waiting for the trial participants to get infected, you deliberately infect them and see if the vaccine works. I was hoping that one of the senators would ask Dr Fauci or the other witnesses about this but no one did. That has the potential to speed development up a lot.

It just drags on and on although if you stand back and look at it the first wave of infection is passing now in most countries. It's on its way down. The question is how far does it fall and can it be eliminated. I doubt it can entirely. It will be in some corner of the world and then it will come back again and that's the fear. Most countries have no immunity to speak of and it remains to be seen if testing strategies can protect populations the 2nd time around. It's really difficult to know how this is going to unfold.

 

[johnnytapia]

Is there any news on those vulnerable/aged/shielded self isolating for 12 weeks?
We are currently looking after two people, doing the shopping prescriptions etc.
What was the original end date?
I'm not saying at the end that's it, they can come out. I just haven't heard any plans/instructions for them etc.

they are going nowhere.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

never mind that imagine the changing rooms !!!

Inhaling copious amounts of Deep Heat might turn out to be the cure.

 

[BobKowalski]

I haven’t broken 2 rules, you’re just being obtuse. I’m delivering the shopping which I do via their back gate which brings me through to their back garden where I leave the shopping outside the conservatory door. As again is covered by @inbetween above, they don’t want more than 1 person meeting 1 other to minimise “R”, so it’s pretty fucking obvious that Matt Hancock can’t explain every individual set of circumstances for example, so yes in theory I could tell my son or daughter to stay in the car, however I make the adult decision with a bit of common sense that they help me carry the shopping so they can see their grandma through a pane of glass. It’s breaking ZERO rules.

If a handful of posters on this forum are arguing over the interpretation of the rules then by definition the rules are not clear and that lack of clarity extrapolated over a nation of 60 odd million people will not end well.

Although given we have the highest death total in Europe I think the possibility of this situation ‘ending well’ is pretty much fucked.

 

[twosips]

Did you note the halving time of the virus? Two weeks.

Think how cunning this is: We have 136,000 active cases (central estimate). Wait two weeks, and it comes down to 68,000. Please if I have misunderstood that tell me. We are clearly now intent on keeping R at 1 and no higher. So if they had waited two weeks it would have halved the rate of immunity acquisition assuming R stays at 1 throughout.

You might ask yourself why not wait two weeks if it is halving in that time. Think how more manageable that would be. Why didn't they do that? Because they have stopping that 2nd wave in mind?

Only just noticed this reading back. Unless I'm missing something, really good point.

 

[twosips]

Not seen any trial vaccine/therapeutic news posted on here for ages. Has it all gone quiet on that front?

 

[Rammy Blue]

If a handful of posters on this forum are arguing over the interpretation of the rules then by definition the rules are not clear and that lack of clarity extrapolated over a nation of 60 odd million people will not end well.

Although given we have the highest death total in Europe I think the possibility of this situation ‘ending well’ is pretty much fucked.

Using a bunch of government hating posters on bluemoon forum as your sample is hardly conclusive, I’d like to guess that the vast majority of posters here do have more than one brain cell and consequently are arguing the toss for the sake of it, as opposed to not being able to construe the correct interpretation of said rules.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Not seen any trial vaccine/therapeutic news posted on here for ages. Has it all gone quiet on that front?

Boris admitted the other day we might not get one at all, other than that been quiet but it was always going to be months.

 

[johnnytapia]

On a different note. Two residents where my wife works, have now recovered. With others looking like they're bucking the trend too.
Fingers crossed.

* I'm not sure if recovered is the correct term as they only presented(after testing positive) with mild symptoms. Either way, it's a victory and a boost of confidence for everyone there.

Please tell us she doesn't work at The Midland.

 

[johnnytapia]

They referenced that study a couple of days ago in a briefing.

Regarding the vaccine, how are we supposed to know? You'd have to be virologists and follow their papers and keep up to date with that research to know. Dr Fauci was quizzed by the US senate and he's quite a reserved and experienced chap and he said of the Moderna vaccine that it's possible it might be available in the Autumn/Winter.

There's some potentially very important discussion going on about challenge vaccine tests where instead of waiting for the trial participants to get infected, you deliberately infect them and see if the vaccine works. I was hoping that one of the senators would ask Dr Fauci or the other witnesses about this but no one did. That has the potential to speed development up a lot.

It just drags on and on although if you stand back and look at it the first wave of infection is passing now in most countries. It's on its way down. The question is how far does it fall and can it be eliminated. I doubt it can entirely. It will be in some corner of the world and then it will come back again and that's the fear. Most countries have no immunity to speak of and it remains to be seen if testing strategies can protect populations the 2nd time around. It's really difficult to know how this is going to unfold.

If only we were an island and could lock down our borders.