COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Healdplace said:
As I have said before New York State in the US is well worth watching. It has mirrored the UK outbreak up to now in terms of sharp rise, peak around the same time in April, not dissimilar death numbers and the tail off to both in the past three months.

NY State has the same UK like mix of rural mainland areas and densely packed population centres of mixed ethnic origin in the off shore islands.

They have not suffered the big rise that other US states seem to have of late.

They fell below 1000 daily cases in June much as we did. But struggled to get below about 700.

They are running at between 500 and 700 over the past few days. So that seems about the base level to aspire towards. They have got up to around 900 a couple of days but yet to pass 1000.

Deaths peaked in the same few days we did (around 8/10 April) at about 800 a day. They have plummetted since after an initially slow fall like us to under 100. Went below 10 a couple of weeks ago like us and are now running in single figures daily.

This mirror pattern is very interesting as the US is awash with the virus in other states. But here - the one worst impacted in the early months - it is tracking us very closely.

Their overall numbers are a little down on ours but they have one third of the England population.

But this does suggest the virus behaves as it does in certain locations almost regardless.
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Speaking totally anecdotally, people here in New York have taken the virus much, much, more seriously than people in other parts of the country. My strong assumption is that this is result of us having been hit so hard early on (or possibly because the state is on the higher income/education side of the spectrum). Bars and restaurants are allowed outdoor service only, stores are severely limiting the amount of people inside, and pretty much everyone is wearing masks. Just yesterday I took a 5 or 10 minute walk to the store and made a point to notice who was or wasn't wearing one and out of the hundred or so people I saw I want to say I noticed one or two people at most without.
 
4 of them were from the NW (again not unusual as per weekend catch up notes yesterday). It was 9 last Wednesday.
 
11 Aug 1

10 Aug added 3 = 3 after two days

9 Aug added 1 = 4 after 3 days

8 Aug added 1 = 4 after 4 days

Those are the lot.

So

7 Aug added 0 and after adding 4 on day two has added nothing since to have a five day total of 4.

These are the last two weeks of five day death totals in date order from 25 Jul to 7 Aug:

7, 10, 7, 7, 4, 3, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 3, 6, 4

Over the two weeks just 18 have been added in total to these 14 different dates - so some 0, some 1 and a couple 2. None have gone up by more.

Deaths in England hospitals are very clearly still falling.
 
Welsh data is both good and bad.

5 new deaths. They are really struggling - especially if more from Betsi Cadwaladr (North Wales).

But just 8 new cases - lowest in ages. At a rate from the tests of only 0.1%. Ditto.
 
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