COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

Okay data time starting with Scotland

0 deaths happily. But 141 cases at 1.5% of tests (it was 159 and 1.6% yesterday so outbreaks still a problem).

But better news is that the hospital patient number fell by 7 to 251 week to week and since yesterday too.

And numbers in icu ventilator beds now back to just 2 (from 4 yesterday and 5 last week). So like in England where similar drops are happening the Icu ventilator bed situation looks more hopeful this weekend.

As of 2 September 69 Scottish care homes have at least 1 positive case. But that is down to 6% of the total.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data

Sadly1 death and 77 new cases (most in a while) at 1.1% - also high % number.

Yesterday it was 51 cases and 0.75% of tests.

A week ago it was 0 deaths, 40 cases at 0.8%.

 

[Vic]

I get the false readings thing from tests, and about the incubation period, but how does he get 7%?

Coronavirus: Airport tests 'give false sense of security', says Johnson

Boris Johnson says testing travellers arriving in the UK would only identify 7% of coronavirus cases.

www.bbc.co.uk

Are the countries testing at airports just wasting their time?

Compared to sending kids back to school and workers back into offices, is quarantine after a trip abroad really that essential? We can take risks in work to keep the economy going but can't take risks to keep airlines and tourism (here and abroad) going. I really don't get it.

 

[Healdplace]

And N Ireland finally.

118 cases (no % until Monday unfortunately). This compares with 61 cases yesterday (at 0.8%) . So big rise.

Last week there were 89 cases.

The rolling weekly average week to week is at 405.

 

[Healdplace]

Now England hospital deaths:

8 with 4 of them from the North West (including 3 of the most recent).

Last Saturday it was 6 with none from the NW.

The 8 today all occurred over the past 5 days too - so no mitigation here.

 

[kaz7]

Hospitalisations of Covid patients are very low both locally and nationally.

It is still here but it's in young hosts. Still a danger it will spread from young to old.

Keep an eye on France where they have the same set-up (rising cases but low severity of illness) but much more pronounced:

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View attachment 2018

I saw a theory on the BBC this morning that ultra-sensitive testing is exagerating the number of new cases by picking up dead virus but I don't see how that explains an increasing trend.

I think Mancunians should be wary of students returning to Manchester at the end of the month. It wont definitely create a problem but it might. They are the population who have most social contacts, and low levels of fear.

When you look at those French graphs it really is amazing. It has attracted some comment but not enough. Will the French deaths start to rise? If they stay flat, then they can stay flat here too. Sadly I think they will increase. It will take a few legs of transmission and then infection in the old will spread to the old.

You haven't allowed for the time lag between getting infected and dying ,need to wait about three weeks at least to a couple of months

 

[kaz7]

This is why all along I have been testing isn’t accurate enough if you got a cold you can get a positive result.

That isn't true , the test is covid 19 specific

 

[Healdplace]

The England deaths are as follows:

4 Sep adds 2 = 2 after one day. This is the first time it has been above zero or one from the last 24 hours for nine days.

3 Sep adds 3 = 3 after just two days. (As noted above 3 of these 5 deaths were in the NW).

2 Sep adds 2 = 9 after three days. There has not been a higher third day number than this since 11 August.

1 Sep adds 0 = 3 after four days.

31 Aug adds 1 = 6 after five days. So it is now 20 straight days since the five day total has not been a single figure number and that was 10 and is still only 11 now over 3 weeks later.

But that three day total of 9 almost certainly means that run will end in 48 hours.

 

[Healdplace]

So the UK hospital death total today is 9. Last Saturday it was 6.

Later the all settings deaths last Saturday became 12.

 

[Blue Hefner]

I’m back to the office on Monday. I’m no martyr there are only 2 of us and plenty of space

We’ve worked reasonably well at home, could would have done more? Probably. Would it have been worth while given the rest of the world had shut down? Debatable and I’d say not worth the effort required

But now, going into September and we do very little in December it’s a balancing act between getting back and whilst I accept there is a small risk, there is a risk that when deals end in December, we don’t have much money left over

As for the government asking civil servants to go back to the office. The government have had 6 months to plan and arrange the CS working conditions, it should not be done on the fly