COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

As for cases - the 3 nation total today is 336 - I am pretty certain that is the highest without England yet added in a very long while.


Yesterday the number was 271 and England added a record lately of 1669 to that.

So unless we get a really good day from England there already looks to be a high number coming later.


This time last week the three nations added 217 and England 891 to equal a lowish 1108.

Would not look likely anything of that level will be the position today. But who knows?

 

[ayrshire_blue]

4 people over 65 amongst the new infections in Scotland today.
0-4 year olds - 2
5-19 year olds - 23
The rest aged 20-64.

 

[Healdplace]

4 people over 65 amongst the new infections in Scotland today.
0-4 year olds - 2
5-19 year olds - 23
The rest aged 20-64.

That pattern happily does not seem to be changing much as it is clearly at least a factor in why more cases some weeks on now are not clearly translating into a big rise in hospitalisation or deaths. Just at worst a plateau effect that was always going to happen when down at such low numbers of both as day to day fluctuations look more serious than when the numbers are huge.

 

[Healdplace]

That said in France today they are reporting that (rather like the NW is doing in past week) there has been a steady increase in hospitalised Covid patients over the past five or six days.

Yesterday an increase of 28 was the sixth straight daily rise. And there are fears that the lag is kicking in and the younger ones testing positive might now be infecting more who have greater vulnerability by mixing too freely.

Though in context France apparently has 4671 in hospital with Covid right now which seems a very high number in comparison with less than 800 in the UK.

Especially as France death numbers are not much different from ours at the moment. Just slightly higher.

 

[Healdplace]

I just looked up how many deaths we had around early/mid June when we last had a similar number in hospital to France as now. And it was between 120 and 200 a day. France is getting nowhere near that level. So there clearly is still a significant difference in the death ratio from patients over those 3 months. Likely better treatment methods as we have learned what to do over the year.

France had a stricter lockdown than we did at the height of the pandemic and have had fewer deaths (about 10,000 or so less up to now).

I wonder if the 'culling' impact was mitigated and that means there are still more people with the most vulnerability to Covid in France than in those countries - which, not necessarily on purpose but due to response and severity of lockdown, now have a smaller proportion of the population at high vulnerability?

Will the ones who were better protected at the height of the pandemic now be more at risk than in nations where most of that population had already caught Covid or died from it?

 

[Healdplace]

The 8 England hospital deaths today were aged between 56 and 94 and all had known underlying health conditions.

 

[Healdplace]

12 all settings deaths - identical with last Saturday.

And cases slightly down but still a record high apart from yesterday at 1813.

So 1477 from England. Lower than the past 2 days from England. Though higher than all but one other previously.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional scoreboard is a little better for the North West - pro rata the biggest day to day fall. But still easily top contributor.

London 232 - down from 296 and still the second highest yet for the region.

Yorkshire 165 - down from 175 and not much over the average for this region.

Midlands 177 - down from 207 and still above average.


And North West 281 - well down from 411 and only 1 over the total from 4 days ago. But at least 100 over what was the average before restrictions.

 

[Healdplace]

Okay the news is encouraging for Greater Manchester. Despite the whole UK cases only being 127 less than yesterday there were exactly 100 fewer cases in Greater Manchester.

Down from 262 to 162. That's actually lower than three days last week. So that is 162 from 281. in NW and a lower % of cases in the UK coming from the NW today.

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard:

Bolton 27 - down a lot from 66 but still nearly double this day last week at the onset of its outbreak. 520 in month. 301 past week. Don't think even the much bigger Manchester has managed that level. 93 over 2 days (was 108). Pop score 901 - has become the first town afaik to leap from the 700s, through the 800s and right into the 900s in 7 days. The very definition of a town with a serious problem.

Bury 9 - down from 17. 246 in month. 71 past week. 26 over 2 days (was 29). Pop score 862.

Manchester 37 - down from 49 but still well above average. 1014 in month (back over the 1K level here). 267 past week, HIgh for the city but as you see well behind Bolton for first time. 86 over 2 days (was 91). Pop score 813. Seven days ago Manchester was 765 and Bolton 796. Both have had bad weeks with similar high numbers. But the pop score measure today has moved the gap to 88 from that 31 in seven days showing how bad per population the Bolton outbreak really is.

Oldham 16 - up from 9 - rare uptick today but unsurprising as the Oldham number was low yesterday. 708 in month. 146 past week. 25 over 2 days (was 39). Pop score 1275. Enough to go behind Blackburn (who had a very good day) to be worst in the North West again.

Rochdale 10 - down from 20. 393 in month. 105 past week. 30 over 2 days (was 36). Pop score 1053.

Salford 20 - down from 43 - but still high by Salford standards. 399 in month. 138 past week. 63 over 2 days (was 58). Pop score 743 (54 behind Stockport and was ahead a couple of weeks back showing that Salford has had issues).

Stockport 8 - down from 10 and best in GM again even if high by last week's standards (number never went above 6 then). 201 in month. 45 past week. (creeping up but still top in GM easily). 18 over 2 days (was 14). Pop score 689. Not far from the last to enter the 700 club next week sometime. But has increased gap on the rest again.

Tameside 12 - down from 24. 325 in month. 104 past week. 36 over 2 days (was 39). Pop score 891 - 900 club approaches.

Trafford 9 - up from 7. 257 in month. 73 past week. 16 over 2 days (was 15). Pop score 734.

Wigan 14 - down from 17 but another unusually high number for here. 169 in month (still lowest in GM but gap to Stockport narrowing). 67 past week 31 over 2 days (was 25). Pop score 724.