COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[everythingchangesbutblue]

Yes. Probably fucking loads who flip more. I've not posted a strong opinion about covid on here or on Twitter for absolutely ages. In fact, my last opinion in here was in mid August where I was saying not to worry about the reinfection cases as they're like outliers. Hardly one day up, one day down is it? Really not sure what you're referring to there? If you can prove me wrong and find some posts, go for it.

My stance now is different to that of months ago simply because we know a fuck load more about this. Treatments have improved, people are more aware, there are other countries we can keep an eye on for precedents, we know what we're dealing with. So yes, my view has altered, but that's healthy and normal. I'd be more worried if anyone was rigidly sticking to their exact same view from March regardless of all the changes. It sounds like you're talking about my posts from months ago where there was hundreds of people dying every day from this. Of course I was more emotional then, as we'd been told the IFR was 1.0% by some professors! We know now that that is miles off thankfully due to various factors including potential cross immunity/better treatment etc. Things are clearly different now and we know a tonne more than we did. As a result, I've changed my opinion slowly based on evidence. Once again - what on earth is wrong with that?

I feel incredibly sad for the vulnerable and for you. It's shite. I'm so sorry you have to go through this. I think vulnerable should be protected, yes, and I never suggested they shouldn't be, did I? I'm not sure what the alternative is though? I don't think we can lock down absolutely everyone realistically forever, as other countries won't do the same, and as soon as we allow flights back in it'd only start again anyway. It's pretty clear with the benefit of hindsight that the whole world disagrees on how to deal with this, so that's a no go. The government isn't going to go for a zero covid approach, quite clearly, and I don't really think that's probably possible anymore anyway, so if there is a way for people to try and live without millions of people losing their incomes and futures being absolutely decimated by this, then we have to try and find it.

If the infections go up, but the deaths remain hopefully very low, then I think that's what we may have to accept. Once again, I'm not sure what is wrong with that. Protect the vulnerable in the best way we can, support them financially too would be my choice, and let everyone else try and get back to something approaching normality and hope for the best....if the deaths start to get out of control, of course react stronger. We're nowhere near that though. We can't lockdown forever and I do think we're doing some severe damage unintentionally to many, many good, hard-working people with the constant local lockdowns without hospitalisation rises.

Edit - and this isn't a personal view either. I still won't hug my parents or anything like that. I'll still be extra cautious, but I think its a crying shame that millions of people are going to lose their livelihoods, just as brexit looms too. We'll destroy more lives than we'll lose if we're no careful. Once again, I'm sorry for the vulnerable. It's awful.

Self centred bullshit. you literally just posted we may have to accept deaths. What my death, that good enough for you? an old dear in a care home? she had a good innings anyway eh?

 

[mackenzie]

Officially, an ‘outbreak’ is 2 or more cases and, last week, there were over 400 outbreaks in care homes. They’re not impregnable and won‘t ever be, unless Hancock makes good on his weekly testing in care homes pledge (spoiler alert: he won’t).

Thanks.
I get that, in a way, but aren't care workers tested regularly? And aren't visitors severely restricted? Although people can, of course, be asymptomatic.
I'd like to go and see my Mum (although we have never been close).

 

[twosips]

Self centred bullshit. you literally just posted we may have to accept deaths. What my death, that good enough for you? an old dear in a care home? she had a good innings anyway eh?

You're being incredibly unfair and focusing on a statement totally out of context. No one wants deaths. Also, none of my views were self-centred at all. I don't want anything to happen to you or anyone. If we were told we could hug our family and meet our friends indoors tomorrow, I still wouldn't, for what its worth. I wouldn't have my delayed wedding now either, or go on holiday abroad etc, as I think it'd be too early personally. I'd still be cautious and keep my distance, still meet friends outside, still wash my hands regularly. I think social distancing is still very, very important and should remain it. But I can't pretend that I don't feel for those who are losing their businesses and being thrown into ruin, or young people who are losing their education due to erratic lockdowns based on nothing really changing. My views are based around trying to be realistic based on current data.

All deaths are clearly awful, but once again what is the alternative mate? If you have a suggestion, I'm genuinely all ears. I lost my auntie to this, and my missus lost her great grandmother. It's hit my family terribly, and I still think we've lost perspective a little recently. And I stress recently - I think panic is setting in again quickly, and as of yet I don't think there's a reason to panic just yet. Hence my post. I think we were totally right to lockdown when we did at the start of the pandemic. 100%. But I don't think we should be acting right now like we did back then, because it is different now. It's not even close to the same as it stands. If the numbers of hospitals starts to rise notably, then yes of course, change the way we go forward. We're not at that point yet I don't think.

And yeah, sadly we may have to accept some deaths, unless there is an alternative way forward. We accept deaths in every decision we make every day. It's no different with covid. We live with risk every time we cross the road, every time we meet up with elderly family at winter during a flu season, every time we get into a car. One death is too many, but once again my point is that at some point we may have to, and I'm aware how callous this sounds, treat it like any other virus as long as the numbers remain low. And that's the key line - as long as it remains low.

If you disagree, fair enough. I just want to know what you think we should do instead? I'm not saying I'm right either, but it's just my personal view. Once again, sorry about your personal situation. I think we should be doing everything we can to protect the vulnerable.

EDIT - I feel i've not really made it clear that what I'm mainly referring to is the most recent lockdown rules. I think they're too early personally, and I don't think they'll change anything either or halt the rises. All they'll succeed in doing is just fucking over businesses instead and make more redundant. We don't know yet whether they're necessary at all, and other countries show they may not be.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Officially, an ‘outbreak’ is 2 or more cases and, last week, there were over 400 outbreaks in care homes. They’re not impregnable and won‘t ever be, unless Hancock makes good on his weekly testing in care homes pledge (spoiler alert: he won’t).

Staff have been tested weekly in my location for 4 weeks or more now. New residents are tested and isolate for 14 days. Visiting restrictions still in place though garden visits are allowed I believe.

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard on this record day.

Bolton 96 - same as yesterday and just one more than 3 days earlier. In four days Bolton has added almost as many cases on its own as all of GM did today (396 - by some way the highest in one GM borough during the pandemic over a few days). 1076 in month (record). 542 past week (GM record). 192 over 2 days (was 205 - coming down at least!). Pop score up by 33 in a day taking Bolton into the 1100 club at 1126 and likely to overtake Rochdale tomorrow for second worst in GM on this measure. Three weeks ago Bolton was 171 points behind Rochdale in pop score. Today it is just 18. And Rochdale is not doing that well so this is a huge and rapid catch up.

Bury 27 - up from 20. Worst 3 day run here too. 359 in month (triple what it was a couple of months back). 149 past week. 47 over 2 days (was 52), Pop score up 14 to 956. Another 1000 club wannabe next week.

Manchester 77 - up from 54 - highest Manchester total during the restriction period too. 1195 in month (new GM record). 419 past week (new Manchester record). 131 over 2 days (was 122). Pop score up 14 to 901 and record rise takes the city into the 900 club, unimaginable a month ago and an increase of 199 points in 23 days.

Oldham 55 - more than doubles from 27 to highest in weeks. Starting to see big numbers here again after doing better. 685 in month. 234 past week. 82 over 2 days (was 71). Pop score up 23 - record rise here - to 1384. Could join 1400 club with just Leicester tomorrow.

Rochdale 35 - also more than doubles from 17. Though not highest in last few weeks. 475 in month. 175 past week. 52 over 2 days (was 46). Pop score up 16 to 1144.

Salford 32 - same as yesterday and now 5 straight days in the 30s. 529 in month (new record here). 204 past week. 64 over 2 days (was 70). Pop score up 12 to 840. Now more than 100 behind of Stockport on this measure after being ahead of it less than a month ago.

Stockport 24 - down from 25. Tiny drop to a still very high number in the town's record - but can comfort in being the only GM borough to be lower than yesterday - if falling by 1 counts! 253 in month. Still holding on here as best in GM for now. But 124 past week shows that will not last long at current levels . 49 over 2 days (was 42) - worst 2 days in Stockport during the pandemic after registering just 1 case 15 days ago and 5 over 2 days. Pop score up by 8 to 737. After taking 47 days to pass through the 600s it has gone more than a third of the way through the 700s in 6.

Tameside 40 - up from 26 - so this borough still struggling. 491 in month (new record). 229 past week. 66 over 2 days (was 70). Given these record numbers recently it is unsurprising that its pop score rose by 18 to be the fourth GM borough to join the 1000 club at 1004. Just two weeks ago Oldham was our only one. And Bury and Manchester are on course to make it six in the next 7 days or so unless things change.

Trafford 16 - up from 12. Even the currently best performing borough in GM had an increase today. 290 in month. 93 past week (best in GM now comfortably - only GM borough not to have gone over 20 on any day). 28 over 2 days (was 26). Pop score up by 7 (lowest in GM today) to 780.

Wigan 23 - same as yesterday - staying at much higher than normal levels like Stockport. 289 in month. Battling Trafford for second in past month here but both still behind Stockport 141 pat week. Battling Stockport for second to Trafford by this measure, Pop score up by 7 to 771. Closed gap to Stockport slightly for top in GM on this measure from 35 to 34.

 

[twosips]

@everythingchangesbutblue just wanted to say I'm really sorry about your personal situation. I hate to sound heartless, genuinely. Apologies for what you're going through and I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm saying your life is expendable. I'm not and I never would dream of saying that. I can't pretend to have the answers, and I'm not sure anyone does.

I can assure you my views aren't based on my personal perspective though. If anything they're based on the anecdotal stories I've heard from many people I know/have spoken to who are struggling immensely. I went away for the lakes this weekend camping with my partner (and i'm aware I'm lucky on that front) and I was chatting, safely from a distance in a mask, outside to a local shop owner at one point after picking up a takeaway coffee.

She was a lovely older lady, and she was telling me how she's had a business for 20 years but they've never seen it this quiet. I felt awfully sorry for her. She looked devastated by everything. There was another place that we went for lunch the next day that said more or less exactly the same thing. I have friends who run shops who are close to losing everything, I've had my partner and my mum being made redundant. I'm worried about my dad's future, and I'm even worried about his health too as he's pretty high risk.

But I'm also worried about the education my nephew and niece are missing out on, plus millions of other children. I can imagine my personal experiences of hearing these stories are very similar for loads of people across the country. I'm fucking shitting it with brexit looming that all of this on top of everything is going to leave the country in the worst state its been in a very long time. This is why I feel that as long as we can keep on control of things, I do think it could be worth trying to let those who are healthy try and get on things, while trying to protect the vulnerable. We need a society worth coming back to when we emerge from this. Not boarded up shops, uneducated kids and millions on the dole.

Once again, I'm sorry if I sounded callous to your personal situation. I didn't meant to be at all, and I'd never intentionally insinuate that anyone's life is expendable. I don't feel taht way at all. I'm just aware that we live with risk every single day, and I guess my point is that at some point we might decide to try and do that with this virus, like the others, as long as its manageable. I don't like it, but life is shite sometimes. Sorry once again. I hope you're well.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

You're being incredibly unfair and focusing on a statement totally out of context. No one wants deaths. Also, none of my views were self-centred at all. I don't want anything to happen to you or anyone. If we were told we could hug our family and meet our friends indoors tomorrow, I still wouldn't, for what its worth. I wouldn't have my delayed wedding now either, or go on holiday abroad etc, as I think it'd be too early personally. I'd still be cautious and keep my distance, still meet friends outside, still wash my hands regularly. I think social distancing is still very, very important and should remain it. But I can't pretend that I don't feel for those who are losing their businesses and being thrown into ruin, or young people who are losing their education due to erratic lockdowns based on nothing really changing. My views are based around trying to be realistic based on current data.

All deaths are clearly awful, but once again what is the alternative mate? If you have a suggestion, I'm genuinely all ears. I lost my auntie to this, and my missus lost her great grandmother. It's hit my family terribly, and I still think we've lost perspective a little recently. And I stress recently - I think panic is setting in again quickly, and as of yet I don't think there's a reason to panic just yet. Hence my post. I think we were totally right to lockdown when we did at the start of the pandemic. 100%. But I don't think we should be acting right now like we did back then, because it is different now. It's not even close to the same as it stands. If the numbers of hospitals starts to rise notably, then yes of course, change the way we go forward. We're not at that point yet I don't think.

And yeah, sadly we may have to accept some deaths, unless there is an alternative way forward. We accept deaths in every decision we make every day. It's no different with covid. We live with risk every time we cross the road, every time we meet up with elderly family at winter during a flu season, every time we get into a car. One death is too many, but once again my point is that at some point we may have to, and I'm aware how callous this sounds, treat it like any other virus as long as the numbers remain low. And that's the key line - as long as it remains low.

If you disagree, fair enough. I just want to know what you think we should do instead? I'm not saying I'm right either, but it's just my personal view. Once again, sorry about your personal situation. I think we should be doing everything we can to protect the vulnerable.

EDIT - I feel i've not really made it clear that what I'm mainly referring to is the most recent lockdown rules. I think they're too early personally, and I don't think they'll change anything either or halt the rises. All they'll succeed in doing is just fucking over businesses instead and make more redundant. We don't know yet whether they're necessary at all, and other countries show they may not be.

Didn't you say you were going on a short break this week, i have heard you say you still go out to restaurants, you were filming around a table with other football guys for 888 not too long ago. You have your channel sponsors, patreons don't you? what's so hard for you personally compared to the vulnerable? oh and here's a alternative for you, the 1st vaccines will hopefully be ready in next month to 3 months, why not have some stricter lockdown measures without going full lockdown until the new year? if that doesn't come to pass then revise again. It will save some of the lives you think we should just accept and maybe then you can go out to more restaurants and have more short breaks. I hate that i am arguing with you and realise it might be my depression and constant worry about the situation that may make me harsh but ffs mate people are dying and people are moaning about get back to normal.

 

[nixmith2]

Self centred bullshit. you literally just posted we may have to accept deaths. What my death, that good enough for you? an old dear in a care home? she had a good innings anyway eh?

There is definitely a difference these days over how we protect and value life, compared with the past (see all the health and safety laws we have in place). Not a lot of people know this, but we had a pandemic in 1968, were schools closed? Shops? Pubs? (No x3). I'm not saying what happened then was right, compared with now, I'm just putting it out there. When all this is settled it will be interesting to compare the UK with Sweden which took a different path.

 

[Healdplace]

Anyone understand the science in this paper enough to comment.

Someone says it infers that Covid will become endemic as in effect just a version of a cold and not much more dangerous.

Looks improbable but not impossible.

I know the T cell discussion suggests there is a path toward relative immunity here but basically Covid becomes a bad cold?

Do they have any real evidence here?

COVID-19 and the Path to Immunity

This Viewpoint reviews what is known about acute and long-term B-cell, antibody, and T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and explains how each are implicated in vaccine candidates likely to be effective and durably protective again COVID-19.

t.co

 

[kaz7]

The government has now sent an urgent warning to care home providers as data emerges that the number of cases there has quadrupled over the past 2 weeks. And hundreds of new cases a day are being recorded in care homes round the UK at present.

Here we go again,it's hope we are better prepared than before