COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[lancs blue]

Put one grain on the first square, double it to 2, then 4 etc. And guess how many would be on the 64th and final square. Almost everyone vastly under estimates how such growth accelerates as it looks 'small numbers' at first.

But the answer is 18,446,744,073,709,551,615.

Sorry to be picky but if you put 1 grain on the first square then the final square will have 2 to the power 63 grains which will be exactly half of that number. ;-)

 

[bluejon]

Afraid so Ayrshire. As soon as the windows close and the heating gets ramped up then it's going to spread like wild fire :((

We don't know this yet at all, it's a guess, and at this moment in time there is no evidence whatsoever that we are in the start of an out of control eruption of dangerous infection.

 

[Healdplace]

The England hospital data:

20 Sep adds 3 = 3 after one day.

19 Sep adds 5 = 6 after two days.

18 Sep adds 1 = 9 after three days.

17 Sep adds 1 = 13 after four days. (Four of the last Five four day totals - including the last three in a row are double digit numbers after just one in the previous month. And that was 10. All of the recent ones are higher.

16 Sep adds 0 = 15 after five days. Our highest five day total since 16 on the 15 July.

 

[kaz7]

I know most of the experts predicted a second wave, but did they predict when things might start to improve again? Ie are we in for a shitty 8 months or so now until the sun comes back out again?

News is absolutely depressing.

Yep but we knew it was coming, aside from the trolls

 

[Healdplace]

Sorry to be picky but if you put 1 grain on the first square then the final square will have 2 to the power 63 grains which will be exactly half of that number. ;-)

Well - sadly - I did not have a clue how to work it out for mysef. That was just the number cited.

In any case the point is not the number itself just the huge under estimatation we all tend to make.

 

[kaz7]

We don't know this yet at all, it's a guess, and at this moment in time there is no evidence whatsoever that we are in the start of an out of control eruption of dangerous infection.

Did you not listen to the briefing ? They are not guessing lol, they are scientists ffs, if we do nothing we will be engulfed again,it is going to be winter and covid plus flu and pneumonia what do you think will happen, talk about head in the sand

 

[lancs blue]

Well - sadly - I did not have a clue how to work it out for mysef. That was just the number cited.

In any case the point is not the number itself just the huge under estimatation we all tend to make.

Ha ha, no worries I was just joshing, keep up the good work.

 

[quiet_riot]

Think that depends which part of the country you're in. Think London many still working from home and if the 17% antibody figure is right they probably need different rules. I know Scotland working from home still encouraged and they think most transmission is happening with households mixing in homes and pubs.

True. I can't speak for a lot, I'm in work (education so no choice) but the roads seem to be more approaching 'normal' rush hour levels each day.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I know most of the experts predicted a second wave, but did they predict when things might start to improve again? Ie are we in for a shitty 8 months or so now until the sun comes back out again?

News is absolutely depressing.

Keep positive bud.

we are in a much better position than March, we know loads more about the virus than back then - day by day we are also closer to a vaccine.

 

[bluejon]

Did you not listen to the briefing ? They are not guessing lol, they are scientists ffs, if we do nothing we will be engulfed again,it is going to be winter and covid plus flu and pneumonia what do you think will happen, talk about head in the sand

As I have said to you before, I am a scientist, I am speaking to many other scientists, and that is our analysis of the current figures. My head is anywhere but the sand. I am reviewing figures every single day and there is no significant resurgence in the dead or seriously ill at this time. I hope it stays that way.