COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Churchlawtonblue]

Population density determines how many people you generally meet in a day and the number of possible virus transmission episodes in a day.
It's not rocket engineering its basic population probability mathematics/statistics that I did for my day job for 4 years with The ONS in Titchfield.

i agree, but that is/was not what people were talking about earlier in this thread.

its intersting isnt it, a friend of mine came back from holiday 2 weeks at a second home in France about three weeks ago. they hardly left their home as everytime they went out in towns or markets the French were just not socially distancing. This wasnt young people it was all generations, he said it was significantly worse than back home in Leeds yorkshire.

 

[BlueAnorak]

precisely. Ive been trying to explain that possibility on here a few times the last few weeks but just get shouted down by Karen etc. They refuse to consider or listen to anything other than the party line.

Herd immunity depends on how many remain in the population that have not the virus and are immune.
The basic maths for herd immunity at the start of an epidemic is
HI = 1-(1/R0)
If R0 is 1.6 it is about 37.5% of the population
If R0 is 5.1 it is about 80% of the population.
Due to the asymmptomatic nature of Covid-19 symptoms they really haven't got a clue but place R0 somewhere between 1.6 and 5.1
Hence the 60% they often talk about.

If 60% is herd immunity then 20% gets you into the 2nd quartile which reduces the steepness of the new viral infection distribution curve.
On top of this they think common colds and other related RNA viruses give us additional protection.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The second they changed to "control the virus" motto they moved the blame from them to us.

Well it is down to us. The yoof and young adults gave up on social distancing months ago. They need to get a fucking grip to be honest. Many of their great grandparents risked their lives in a war. All the yoof and young people need to do is sit down in a pub and not get too trollied

 

[kaz7]

I'm sure there are more articles but I just did a quick search and that was one that came up https://theconversation.com/coronav...t-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584

Seen it mentioned in a few other places, if you search you will probably find more.

Three month old opinion piece ,you really need to up your game

 

[kaz7]

Pubs and restaurants must now shut by 10pm. Does the virus know what time it is?

iti s about viral load,the less time you are in contact with people the better a d it cuts down on the late drinkers piling in pubs ,i think they should have to go takeaway or nothi ng

more policy changes at 10pm ,fucking stupid ,we are on england time,do it during the day like normal people

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Herd immunity depends on how many remain in the population that have not the virus and are immune.
The basic maths for herd immunity at the start of an epidemic is
HI = 1-(1/R0)
If R0 is 1.6 it is about 37.5% of the population
If R0 is 5.1 it is about 80% of the population.
Due to the asymmptomatic nature of Covid-19 symptoms they really haven't got a clue but place R0 somewhere between 1.6 and 5.1
Hence the 60% they often talk about.

If 60% is herd immunity then 20% gets you into the 2nd quartile which reduces the steepness of viral infection distribution curve.
On top of this they think common colds and other related RNA viruses give us additional protection.

good post, thanks for sharing.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Sorry mate so in less dense areas the herd immunity level can be less to kill it off??

Not really, it's a time thing. In areas of low population density the new infection curve is much less steep as there are less chances per day of individuals passing it on.
In historical plagues, cities get hit very quickly and the main death surge is over pretty quickly too, but it rumbles on in the countryside for a lot longer.

 

[ballinio]

Pubs and restaurants must now shut by 10pm. Does the virus know what time it is?

No , but the government can show who’s in charge of us all

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Three month old opinion piece ,you really need to up your game

Oh dear, you need to accept that their are other opinions and possibilities. Did you bother reading anything about Manaus and if so are you willing to share your views on why or how that has occurred?

 

[crooky]

just doesn’t make sense. Most are half empty by that time anyway

Remember these lot don't know a world outside a 24/7 city like London.

Other than weekends 11pm is generally when pubs close anyway so 1 hours difference and most people have gone before 11 anyway.