COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[cleavers]

Wales data - also I guess not starting a second wave . But in reality, sadly.....

2 deaths and 389 cases (highest ever) at 4.0% of tests. Also a record.

Versus last week 0 deaths v 2 deaths, 199 cases v 389 cases and 2.0% v 4.0%

That looks to me like a doubling here in 7 days just like Scotland and England.

Nearly 900 (875) new cases in 2 countries has to be a serious worry for England (and NI).

 

[Healdplace]

Any remaining doubters - here are the England hospital figures. Just as bad sadly.

23 deaths though remarkably only 1 in the NW. There were 8 in Yorkshire and 5 each in London and the South East.

Last week the number was 11 - so yet again a doubling of deaths in a week here.

Those rising ventilator cases are tragically biting and creating an illusion of a second wave. Or the start of a real one.

I guess there will be pages debating that but the undeniable (and in my view far more important point over point scoring in a thread) is that real people are now starting to die in accelerating numbers.

I dont think the academic truth as to what to call this matters one hoot above trying to slow this down or next time it may be one of your family.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data in detail:

22 Sep adds 4 = 4 after one day.

21 Sep adds 6 = 8 after two days.

20 Sep adds 6 = 21 after three days. The last time it was at that level was 9 July.

19 Sep adds 1 = 9 after four days.

18 Sep adds 3 = 16 as the five day total.

Here is the run of 5 day totals from 1 Sep to 18 Sep:


3, 9, 3, 4, 8, 6, 9, 10, 5, 7, 6, 7, 13, 9, 12, 15, 17, 16.

No need to be a mathematician to see what is happening there. It is thankfully still low but barring the stalling we all hope for this will be in the 30s or 40s in a week or so. And as deaths lag by a week or two cases and hospitalisations there is nothing we can do to stop that now. Sadly. Though we can hope to stop that doubling again and again by end of October.

The other three deaths are two added to 17 Sep to make up that day to 17 and 1 from 14 August which may be discounted on the 28 day rule.

 

[Scottyboi]

Here he is

 

[Healdplace]

N Ireland data: 0 deaths happily stopping a full house of the four nations.

But new cases are at a high of 220 at 2.5% of tests.

Seven days ago it was 2 deaths, 129 cases at 1.5% of tests.

The rolling weekly average is 1078 and 112 of those - so a lowish for here number that is under 11% - are in over 60s.

There are 39 people in hospital v 21 a week ago and 5 on ventilators v 2 a week ago.

So all four nations are following the consistant pattern of not far off doubling in the past week.

 

[Healdplace]

The total UK hospital deaths today are 27 versus 14 last week. So doubling again.

That 14 became 20 on all settings last week. So we may even sadly see a UK all settings up around the 40 number that France and Spain were reporting earlier in the week.

 

[quiet_riot]

My employer this morning " no more working from home for anybody, it's just an advisory by the Government & we've decided not to change anything".

If lots of employers have this stance, their hands will be forced when we go into a full lockdown.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Age/sex distribution of the 389 Wales cases: M/F

10 - 19 M 1.7% / F 1.8%
20 - 29 M 5.3% / F 9.6%
30 - 39 M 5.5% / F 9,0%
40 - 49 M 5.4% / F 10.2%
50 - 59 M 6.5% / F 12.0%
60 - 69 M 4.0% / F 5.1%
70 - 79 M 4.5% / F 3.6%
80 - 89 M 4.4% / F 5.3%
90+ aprx 1% / F 3.2

The others to make up 100% are under 10

You can see two things here - there is a higher number of 60 and over testing positive than elsewhere. Which will feed into increased deaths in Wales sadly. May be care home problems.

And also the sex make up is different now than earlier in the pandemic. More women in pretty much every age range are testing positive. That was always true in the older ages simply as women tend to live longer and so numbers were higher over 80. But in the middle age groups it used to be the other way round.

Now that’s really helpful data. The chances of dying from this go up hugely from 70 to 80, then increase enormously again from 80-90 with the 90+ year olds having another big rise in risk. However, the biggest risk factors, after age, being a man, having other stuff wrong with you (obesity BMI 40+), diabetes, cardiac disease and living in a care home. As we know all this there must be a better way of protecting the known vulnerable from this virus than everyone hiding away, I’d have thought.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases today from the 3 nations without England are a record 1095.

In the Summer they were often below 100. But this is the first time ever they have gone over 1000.

Last week they were 595. Looks hard to see us not being over 5000 today. England would either have to have a promising downturn in numbers or the testers a bad day in testing/tracing. No prizes for guessing which is more likely. But we can hope.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I am not disparaging herd immunity as a concept and it may well prove a help in mitigating the path we are headed.

But you cannot presume on it or risk lives based on that presumption as statistics look very comforting when on your side but are irrelevant if 99.9% are unaffected and your child is the 0.1 who is.

So unless we get herd immunity by infection or vaccination how on earth are we going to get out of this mess?
The death rate for our youth and people under 30 is far less risky than a combination of risks that people take everyday.