COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

Hopefully they are low because we are getting on top of things again, the hospital and icu will lag a couple of weeks and be from the start of the spike in cases.

Agreeed but she did say they were surprised by the numbers - hence the investigation - and I think the week to week comparasion of the % of tests that were positive is key as it has been doubling week to week pretty well every day for some time now. So 6.3 v 6.9 over 7 days smooths out the Sunday data impact you would think. Unless something else was occurring this Sunday than last. Which is why I think they are looking into it. Especially given all the issues we know exist around testing.

But the doubling of ventilator cases from 8 to 16 in a week and the not far off doubling of hospital patients is a concerm.

Though good and bad news will always start with case numbers rising/falling, then translate into hospital admissiobs then ICU patients and finally deaths.

So the first we would expect to see fall is cases. The others would lag by up to a few weeks.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Scotland data: Pretty worrying but the cases are very low.

0 deaths

222 new cases

at 6.9 % of tests

37 in Lanarkshire, 54 cases in Lothian and 53 Greater Glasgow.

All that is very good and Nicola Sturgeon noted she THINKS it is a weekend effect why over the past two days both the actual numbers and the % of tests are much lower than of late but has ordered an investigation to make sure there are no other reasons for the big falls. Though the % of tests dropping is actually promising news either way I would argue.

But as usual Nicola is being cautious and here especially because the other data is a much bigger concern

122 now in hospital - a rise of 17 patients in a day - biggest daily rise by far under the new lower level system introduced three weeks ago reducing then the people in hospital 'with Covid from 260 or so overnight to about 40 under the more strict definition of what qualified as a Covid patient.

This is the largest daily rise in months. And means in under 3 weeks even on the new measure patient numbers have trebled in Scotland. So under the old system woud likely now be about 800!

And 16 sadly also now on icu ventilators - 4 up on yesterday.

She even warned that deaths may have occurred but as Scotland does not register deaths over the weekend those may come tomorrow.

I would counter that and say that they are pretty low so not as worrying. I supose its how you look at things. Glass half full or glass half empty?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Scotland week to week comparison:

0 deaths v 0 deaths today

255 cases v 222 cases today

At 6.3% of tests v 6.9% today

73 in hospital v 122 today

8 in icu ventilators v 16 today

So cases havent doubled like Prof Chris Whitty said?

 

[Healdplace]

I would counter that and say that they are pretty low so not as worrying. I supose its how you look at things. Glass half full or glass half empty?

The case numbers are good as I noted. Surprisingly so. Hence the investigation to be sure they were not caused in some unexpected way that I pointed out Nicola Sturgeon ordered as they saw how positive they were too and need to be sure that they ARE a real drop.

It was, as my post says, the rises in inpatients and ventilator patients that were the more worrying as these are increases up more in one day on all previous days since the rising data started last month.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The case numbers are good as I noted. Surprisingly so. Hence the investigation to be sure they were not caused in some uexpected way and ARE a real drop. It was, as my post says, the rises in inpatients and ventilator patients that were the more worrying as these are increases up more in one day on all previous days since the rising data started last month.

lets hope they stabilise and drop. and do so much quicker than in France and Spain.

 

[grunge]

So cases havent doubled like Prof Chris Whitty said?

nope, but we put in measures to stop it so that suggests the measures worked.

Edit: Actually they nearly double quicker than they said ( 7 days ) and have dropped back.

21st sept we had 3899.
26th sept we had 6870.

so thats easily on target to double in 7 days.

thankfully the numbers dropped over the weekend. could just be a weekend blip mind you.

 

[bluejon]

Agreeed but she did say they were surprised by the numbers - hence the investigation - and I think the week to week comparasion of the % of tests that were positive is key as it has been doubling week to week pretty well every day for some time now. So 6.3 v 6.9 over 7 days smooths out the Sunday data impact you would think. Unless something else was occurring this Sunday than last. Which is why I think they are looking into it. Especially given all the issues we know exist around testing.

But the doubling of ventilator cases from 8 to 16 in a week and the not far off doubling of hospital patients is a concerm.

Though good and bad news will always start with case numbers rising/falling, then translate into hospital admissiobs then ICU patients and finally deaths.

So the first we would expect to see fall is cases. The others would lag by up to a few weeks.

Ignore the cases, the data that is being used there is beyond dreadful. The data to keep an eye on is ICU admissions and to put it bluntly, people dying. There is too much noise in the testing data to be able to draw any conclusions from it. At this moment in time, it's still looking like the slight rise we are seeing is not because of a dreaded second wave but simply a rise in cases due to the time of year and people moving into the at risk category due to other medical issues.

 

[Healdplace]

To double check on Scotland I looked to see how they changed last Monday (Sunday data) from 7 days before.

Cases rose in that Sunday - Sunday period from 70 to 255 - so tripled in a week, not fell as today's report.

And the % of positive tests went up from 2.7 % to 6.3% over those previous 7 days - so more than doubled in a week (as it carried on doing daily last week in the week to week comparisons I post here daily - to reach nearly 12% a few days ago.

So yesterday's test numbers really do look positive if there is no other factor -hence Nicoka wisely checking first to see if there might be.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

lets hope they stabilise and drop. and do so much quicker than in France and Spain.

Speaking of which, is anyone up to date with the goings on in France and Spain of recent? I mean in terms of cases, hospitals, ICU and deaths? I know there was talk of a possible plateau in Spain a week or so ago, wondering if this has proven to be the case?

 

[Healdplace]

Ignore the cases, the data that is being used there is beyond dreadful. The data to keep an eye on is ICU admissions and to put it bluntly, people dying. There is too much noise in the testing data to be able to draw any conclusions from it. At this moment in time, it's still looking like the slight rise we are seeing is not because of a dreaded second wave but simply a rise in cases due to the time of year and people moving into the at risk category due to other medical issues.

I really hope you are right as that would undoubtedly be horrible for a few this winter (which we should do everything we can to minimise) but would be the best case scenario in every other way.

And I totally agree that icu ventilator numbers and deaths are the key data. Which is why I post them daily. And, of course, they lag cases by some days and weeks.

Case numbers - per se - are limited in value as there are so many variables but the positive test percentage is at least a relatively stable guide to trends. Which is why I always post it if available. Though England are not as reliable doing that as the other nations.