COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Churchlawtonblue]

nope, but we put in measures to stop it so that suggests the measures worked.

Edit: Actually they nearly double quicker than they said ( 7 days ) and have dropped back.

21st sept we had 3899.
26th sept we had 6870.

so thats easily on target to double in 7 days.

thankfully the numbers dropped over the weekend. could just be a weekend blip mind you.

it will take a while for the new measures to take effect.

 

[Healdplace]

it will take a while for the new measures to take effect.

And this is Scottish data today who seem to have been the first place to see this rise in cases and hospital admissions and ventilator patients. And introduced local restrictions quite rapidly on hot spot areas as soon as they appeared one by one.

As from mid August we were seeing in Scotland these slowly inch up but they only really became noticable to the wider public when the larger base numbers in England from the far higher population level meant they showed up more easily in the day to day data.

 

[shemnel]

Ignore the cases, the data that is being used there is beyond dreadful. The data to keep an eye on is ICU admissions and to put it bluntly, people dying. There is too much noise in the testing data to be able to draw any conclusions from it. At this moment in time, it's still looking like the slight rise we are seeing is not because of a dreaded second wave but simply a rise in cases due to the time of year and people moving into the at risk category due to other medical issues.

well said, sensible.

i think running a reactionary policy of localised measures based on case data is unreliable.

 

[cleavers]

Speaking of which, is anyone up to date with the goings on in France and Spain of recent? I mean in terms of cases, hospitals, ICU and deaths? I know there was talk of a possible plateau in Spain a week or so ago, wondering if this has proven to be the case?

France seems to have levelled off around the highest cases ever 12-13000 per day. Spain, it's hard to tell, because all last week their cases were around 11-12000, then on Thursday or Friday, all those data were all reduced by 1/2 to 1/3, the same has happened 3 weeks in a row now, but the lower number are than adjusted back up again the following week.
Zoom of the dip last week, these last few days were all sky scrapers until Thursday or Friday.



Oh and they don't report any numbers for Saturday or Sunday until Monday afternoon.

 

[Healdplace]

well said, sensible.

i think running a reactionary policy of localised measures based on case data is unreliable.

I dont think it has been based only on case numbers - otherwise why did it take so long for Wigan to be included in the GM measures when its numbers had been rising alarmingly for two or three weeks showing that a patchwork quilt of imposing restrictions based on case hot spots is all but impossible to make work in an urban society.

Stockport showed the same effect but happily so far to reduced extent. But it was right both were reincluded in the restrictions belatedly as it was as neither should ever have been singled out.

Look what happened to Rossendale - a tiny place with low numbers throughout the pandemic - caught in a trap between areas where Covid took off (Blackburn,Burnley, Oldham, Rochdale and Bury) In effect surrounded by then hijacked by the virus.

But then as we have no idea how many extra tests contributed to these rises in cases in these local areas being singled out we have no idea how real or illusory these rising case numbers are anyway.

Just that given a chance to spread in a densely crowded society like much of England it will.

 

[BigJoe#1]

But the doubling of ventilator cases from 8 to 16 in a week and the not far off doubling of hospital patients is a concerm.

i don't think we can get too carried away just yet about the "doubling" of cases. You could always say it was just over one new admission a day across the whole of Scotland.

Also, how many people were discharged from the ventilator wards?

They had ventilators before Covid, how many cases that are going on to ventilators exclusively because of Covid?

Definitely need to keep an eye on this but it's to the medias delight to highlight the negativity and create sensational headlines, we really do need to calm down!

 

[BigJoe#1]

Ignore the cases, the data that is being used there is beyond dreadful. The data to keep an eye on is ICU admissions and to put it bluntly, people dying. There is too much noise in the testing data to be able to draw any conclusions from it. At this moment in time, it's still looking like the slight rise we are seeing is not because of a dreaded second wave but simply a rise in cases due to the time of year and people moving into the at risk category due to other medical issues.

Spot on.

 

[Healdplace]

i don't think we can get too carried away just yet about the "doubling" of cases. You could always say it was just over one new admission a day across the whole of Scotland.

Also, how many people were discharged from the ventilator wards?

They had ventilators before Covid, how many cases that are going on to ventilators exclusively because of Covid?

Definitely need to keep an eye on this but it's to the medias delight to highlight the negativity and create sensational headlines, we really do need to calm down!

These numbers on ventilators are ONLY the Covid cases who are. And if numbers on them are near doubling week to week whilst some patients are coming off them (and others dying on them) that is even more concerning, surely?

The England hospital data on these numbers is more alarming than Scotland right now. The North West alone has 68 on them yesterday - up from 39 a week ago and 18 two weeks ago.

Nobody is getting carried away but ignoring that clear escalation is not a great plan.

 

[BigJoe#1]

These numbers on ventilators are ONLY the Covid cases who are. And if numbers on them are near doubling week to week whilst some patients are coming off them (and others dying on them) that is even more concerning, surely?

Get your point but it's too early to say, certainly wouldn't be sanctioning lockdowns on this evidence. Preparing to yes, doing it no.

It would be good if they could clarify if these are actually new cases or new sum totals, like you say there's Hall of a difference.

 

[Healdplace]

I am not an expert on anything so cannot comment more than my own thougts.

All I am doing here is publishing the raw data.

Anyone is free to interpret it as they choose. But you can do that better by seeing the data first, I am presumimg.