COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[bluejon]

You cannot ignore cases, ICU admissions and deaths are lagging indicators and are affected by the age profile of the numbers.
Every indicator shows case numbers are rising arguing whether it is a wave or not is simply arguing over a definition that you can choose to define how you want.
There are quite legitimate debates to be had about how much death is reasonable to accept, how much restriction is reasonable for society etc.
But arguing that cases that haven't so far resulted in death or disability don't represent a real rise in transmission or is somehow not a wave is meaningless.

I'm not ignoring cases because they are cases, I just believe that the data on cases is far too noisy to draw any meaningful conclusions from. The data collection methods, the companies collecting, the populations they are sampling from, the number of tests etc etc. The hospital numbers are much more concrete.

 

[bluejon]

You do know that hospital admissions cover everyone and not just those that end up on on ventilators or dying ? There are thousands of us affected who havent died but are scarred for life , your data analysis is completely flawed and head in the fucking sand

Thanks for that valuable contribution Karen. I would never have considered what you suggested if it wasn't for your post.

 

[Healdplace]

Age ranges of Scottish infections announced today

Over 65s - 24 (4 of whom are 85+)
0-14s - 11 (4 of whom are under 5s)
15-19s - 45
20-64s - 142

Slight rise in % i of over 65s - to 10% from around 7/8% for weeks.

 

[kaz7]

Thanks for that valuable contribution Karen. I would never have considered what you suggested if it wasn't for your post.

Well you did say only ICU and deaths are the only measure to look at , obviously it is not , cant believe you have a data job

 

[BlueAnorak]

It's a six fold increase over 3 and a half weeks. Sounds like more than a slight rise. The slightly better news is that the North West figures buried in there look like they might have peaked, so hopefully the rest of the country will follow over the next couple of weeks. It's probably too early to say for sure though.

View attachment 2990

I think the dip over the last few days is over 50s taking more precautions.

 

[Healdplace]

Agreed.
I thought it was worth posting the data as a couple of graphs to make it simpler to see the trends.

No I agree the graphs do help. I would not have a clue how to do that kind of technical stuff. When I was at school computers were science fiction.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Why is this not being pushed into production to arrive on our shelves within a month? It's not dangerous. Science is too fucking slow to approve treatments sometimes.

Preventative nasal spray shown to reduce viral replication by up to 96% in COVID-19 challenge study

New preventative nasal spray treatment that could protect people from COVID-19 infection and prevent transmission announced Novel therapy developed by...

www.prnewswire.co.uk

 

[bluejon]

Well you did say only ICU and deaths are the only measure to look at , obviously it is not , cant believe you have a data job

I didn't say they were the only ones, I said they were the ones to keep an eye on as these are probably the most accurate. But again, thank you for your outstanding contribution and I look forward to reading more of your analysis in the future.

 

[Healdplace]

Kaz, sorry to hear that news. Hopefully, this will be something they find a way to resolve. We seem to have made so much progress on treatments in just a few months. Every specialist around the planet will be looking for ways to help.

 

[Healdplace]

Either there is something VERY wrong with the testing today (as Nicola Sturgeon suggested the need to investigate) or things have turned a corner.

Just 4044 cases. Less than last Monday.

From 226 K tests - 7000 more than 7 days ago.