COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

This year will be a defining moment in the life of everyone living through it. It will be taught in schools decades from now. They will not debate why we did not do more to save chain stores or airlines. They will debate why more died that could have been saved.

 

[cleavers]

That hardly comes as a surprise, and I've said all along that the end of Feb half term holiday was the real cause of it the mass spread, because lots of people go on holiday then, skiing and winter sun, in the Alps, Pyrenees, and Spain, where we already knew it was circulating heavily. Had we isolated everyone coming back then for 14 days (as we were doing for people coming back from cruises, and in from China, if I remember correctly), then who knows how many would have survived, but if that had happened then the government would have been thought to be going completely mad, as the number of cases seemed tiny at that point.

 

[117 M34]

GM scoreboard:

Bolton 67 - down from 68. 2240 in month (record). 655 past week. 161 over 2 days (was 219). Pop score up 24 into the 1600 club at 1613 after just 3 days in the 1500, 1400 and 1300 clubs. So not getting worse.

Bury 46 - down from 51. 959 in month (record). 386 past week. 97 over 2 days (was 97). Pop score up 24 to 1338.

Manchester 119 - down from 182. Biggest drop in ages. 2714 in month (record). 1182 past week (record). 301 over 2 days (was 359). Pop score up 22 to 1271.

Oldham 49 - down fron 64. 1199 in month. 434 past week. 113 over 2 days (was 122). Pop score up 21 to 1741. Could soon overtake Blackburn which seems to be getting things under control. Lowest cases there today in a while at 14.

Rochdale 36 - down from 44. 993 in month. 377 past week. 80 over 2 days (was 90). Pop score up 16 to 1466.

Salford 48 - down from 62. 1137 in month. 414 past week 110 over 2 days (was 105). Pop score up 18 to 1146.

Stockport 29 - down from 39. 664 in month (record). 257 past week. 68 over 2 days (was 80). Pop score up 10 to take it into the 900 club at 902. Now no GM boroughs left in the 800 club.

Tameside 29 - down from 50 and lowest here in 10 days. 984 in month. 327 past week. 79 over 2 days (was 93). Pop score up 12 to 1295. 1300 club tomorrow.

Trafford 28 - down from 59 and best in GM today - though as you see only just! First time we had 3 under 30 on one day for two weeks. 578 in month (record but stillbest in GM). 262 past week (record - and enough to hand the rolling weekly title of best weekly numbers in GM JUST back to Stockport). 87 over 2 days (was 96). Pop score up 12 to 961 so it lost ground here on Stockport and is now 59 points adrift on this best in GM measure.

Wigan 35 - enormous drop from 109. Lowest here in two weeks. 1032 in month (record). 460 past week. 144 over 2 days (was 177). Pop score up 11 to 1023.

Is the population score the 1 in xxxx who have it?
I.e. I'm in tameside so does that mean 1 in 1295 have it?
So the higher number the better

 

[bluejon]

No, my way of thinking is that there are eminent scientists crunching the same data as you and have drawn a different conclusion, so I put it to you, what makes you right and them wrong, as you have been quite vociferous in claiming that they are

Because I have compared what the imperial model predicted, observed what has happened, and they don't match. And for what it's worth there are a significant number of 'eminent scientists' saying exactly the same as myself, I am certainly not alone in this. The imperial model is what the entire western world based its lockdown upon and it's utter bullshit. As i've said before though, Neil Ferguson, the guy who produced it, has previous with getting predictions very very wrong. The panic about BSE? That was him. Bird flu? Again, mr predicty bollocks. He's not very good at this.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

A government that saves money during a pandemic will win votes from accountants.

A government that saves lives will win hearts, minds and the next election.

Whatever the rights or wrongs the British people will not support sacrificing anyone over economics.

A government that goes into the next General Election with 4mill unemployed and huge tax rises to pay for it all will lose. Its that simple!

 

[mackenzie]

This year will be a defining moment in the life of everyone living through it. It will be taught in schools decades from now. They will not debate why we did not do more to save chain stores or airlines. They will debate why more died that could have been saved.

I'm not sure to be honest. They will study the first wave and, undoubtedly, ask that (as they should in my humble opinion).
Yet I think there is also an argument to be had that, with hindsight, they look back and wonder why we crippled ourselves financially.
However, as always, hindsight is a wonderful tool.
Nobody will know the answers until it's all over, and nobody knows now.

 

[mosssideblue]

Because I have compared what the imperial model predicted, observed what has happened, and they don't match. And for what it's worth there are a significant number of 'eminent scientists' saying exactly the same as myself, I am certainly not alone in this. The imperial model is what the entire western world based its lockdown upon and it's utter bullshit. As i've said before though, Neil Ferguson, the guy who produced it, has previous with getting predictions very very wrong. The panic about BSE? That was him. Bird flu? Again, mr predicty bollocks. He's not very good at this.

Well, if you and your fellow scientists (eminent or otherwise)are so convinced the Gov scientists are that wrong, where is your public outcry or story to the press from one of your top supporters to expose it all?

Basically, are you saying now that the lockdown in March was a waste of time?

 

[Healdplace]

I recall early in the pandemic they put the passengers from that cruise ship in isolation on the Wirral. And I noticed afterwards that the Wirral looked surprisingly high in cases. But as these people were tested and clear then I could not see the link and later assumed it was to do with LIverpool idiotically being allowed to host Madrid fans by the planeload when that city was in chaos. But Liverpool did not have a big rise in cases during the first phase of the pandemic as I watched it expectng one. It has only really occurred in this 'second wave' like Manchester's has. When we are testing more widely and finding cases that we never would have back in Feb/March.

I suspect it is because way more aymptomatic cases were occurring in the early part that were never picked up as testing was then sparse and only used on those who got really sick. If - as we now know - the majority do not even notice much at all if positive (it was still the tail end of winter bug season so likely never then regarded as Covid or worth testing even if they did notice in the way that they would now) then it is more than probable that lots of cases were circulating and infecting others without the cause being identified.

I wonder now if the Wirral had more cases tied to the Arrowe Park isolation than was ever realised and/or the football match too. The older population on the Wirral compared with the younger in the city might explain why Wirral was high and Liverpool not.

 

[idahoblues]

I'm not sure to be honest. They will study the first wave and, undoubtedly, ask that (as they should in my humble opinion).
Yet I think there is also an argument to be had that, with hindsight, they look back and wonder why we crippled ourselves financially.
However, as always, hindsight is a wonderful tool.
Nobody will know the answers until it's all over, and nobody knows now.

Is the correct answer. All this finger pointing is unproductive and probably does more harm than good.

 

[bluejon]

Well, if you and your fellow scientists (eminent or otherwise)are so convinced the Gov scientists are that wrong, where is your public outcry or story to the press from one of your top supporters to expose it all?

Basically, are you saying now that the lockdown in March was a waste of time?

There's load of top scientists saying what I've been saying. This guy is meant to be incredible, I have a friend who worked with him for a while, and this is what he said back in March:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

As for lockdown being a waste of time, we could not have known it at the time, and I completely supported it back in March. My family followed the rules to the letter, but when the numbers become that clear that the response was wrong they needed to change direction. They haven't. If you look at the curve showing the rate of death per day, then look at the date when lockdown was brought in, you'll see that around 4 weeks after this there was no change in the trajectory of the curve. As I said, they couldn't have known that at the time, but they got it wrong.