COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[west didsblue]

My prediction is that we are not going to see a significant rise again in covid deaths (and when i say significant, to be clear, I mean numbers like we were seeing earlier this year, I don't think a second wave is going to happen).

I agree that the current rise is unlikely to have anything like the same impact on the elderly population and hence mortality will be much lower. Arguing whether a second wave is the correct terminology for the current uptick is just semantics. Hopefully we’re nearing its peak and we’ll start to see cases going down soon.

 

[bluejon]

I agree that the current rise is unlikely to have anything like the same impact on the elderly population and hence mortality will be much lower. Arguing whether a second wave is the correct terminology for the current uptick is just semantics. Hopefully we’re nearing its peak and we’ll start to see cases going down soon.

It isn't semantics when panic over a second wave is driving the current measures which is putting thousands out of work.

 

[west didsblue]

It isn't semantics when panic over a second wave is driving the current measures which is putting thousands out of work.

It’s not panic over a second wave. It’s an incompetent government that regularly makes wrong decisions but that’s for the other thread.

 

[Marvin]

GM scoreboard today is interesting and may offer debate for those who think todays low numbers are a testing anomaly. As they may be.

Some places have huge falls.

Wigan for instance from its record unexpectedly huge peak yesterday to what today is its lowest in 2 weeks. Which was the anomaly? Yesterday or today? Or somewhere inbetween?

Other places very consistent day to day. The only big number today was Manchester and even that is well down.

And the two 'best' boroughs in GM which you all know as they are rarely any other score 28 and 29 - very consistent - and the best.

So does that suggest the data is messed up on the correct numbers but equally wrong or right consistently and so OK in measuring relative levels of the outbreak.

Could be that the student numbers caused a spike that is now behind us. i.e. authorities find a student cluster in a hall, test it and one-two days shoot up. What is the trend though? If you follow the curves of new cases there are periods when it falls for 3-4 days and then spikes up again.

The other thing is that the restrictions i.e. rule of 6 etc should be making themselves felt now.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Why is this not being pushed into production to arrive on our shelves within a month? It's not dangerous. Science is too fucking slow to approve treatments sometimes.

Preventative nasal spray shown to reduce viral replication by up to 96% in COVID-19 challenge study

New preventative nasal spray treatment that could protect people from COVID-19 infection and prevent transmission announced Novel therapy developed by...

www.prnewswire.co.uk

Interesting article that and should go in the positive covid thread as it's in need of a few posts. I posted on a very similar novel therapy in that thread last week in this same nasal area from a Portuguese/Canadian venture which similarly is looking very good with preliminary results in early stage trials -

Pioneering therapy developed in Portugal promises to eliminate virus in seconds

Pioneering therapy developed in Portugal promises to eliminate virus in seconds. Dubbed FOTOVID - because it involves a process known as photodisinfection

www.portugalresident.com

I'm sure the anti vaxxers will manage to shoehorn their warped theories into nasal spray devices as well though

 

[mackenzie]

Back from seeing the lung consultant

On the face of it covid has given me asthma and that is me for life, he needs to see the damage so i am having a CT scan , bloods etc and a telephone appointment to discuss the results and go in if necessary

I was putting a brave face on it but i am devastated

Sorry to hear that. I know it's "long" covid and nobody knows,.as yet, what the long term outcome and recovery will be but I had a pneumothorax some years ago and like yourself feared for my ongoing health.
For about 3 years I suffered chest infections, panic attacks and pleurisy. Strangely enough I then started to suffer less and less, to the point now that I have had perhaps 1 chest infection in the last 10 years and no pleurisy.
All I'm trying to say is that the short term may be rough but that the symptoms may ease off.
Hope your ongoing tests give you good results

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

I don't think anyone expects covid deaths to be anything like earlier in the year, simply because we have better treatments and we know far more about it now, ie we ventilated too many early on, and it probably was a cause of death in itself.

However a "second wave" isn't just deaths, it's also about hospitalisations, and when you've got that far (needing hospital) there is a significant risk of both death in a few cases, but just as importantly, serious long term illness caused by the virus.

On top of that hospital beds taken up by covid patients, take out of service wards / beds / nurses / doctors for other treatments.

Agree with all this. Plus there are other factors we don't know about yet such as the weather this winter or the possibility of a double whammy with seasonal flu. Figures also show that the infection fatality rate is much lower than it was thought in the early stages (even allowing for the increased testing) Let's hope we come through this better than earlier in the year and get an early vaccine.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Back from seeing the lung consultant

On the face of it covid has given me asthma and that is me for life, he needs to see the damage so i am having a CT scan , bloods etc and a telephone appointment to discuss the results and go in if necessary

I was putting a brave face on it but i am devastated

My thoughts and wishes are with you Karen.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

I don't think anyone expects covid deaths to be anything like earlier in the year, simply because we have better treatments and we know far more about it now, ie we ventilated too many early on, and it probably was a cause of death in itself.

However a "second wave" isn't just deaths, it's also about hospitalisations, and when you've got that far (needing hospital) there is a significant risk of both death in a few cases, but just as importantly, serious long term illness caused by the virus.

On top of that hospital beds taken up by covid patients, take out of service wards / beds / nurses / doctors for other treatments.

Agree with all this. Plus there are other factors we don't know about yet such as the weather this winter or the possibility of a double whammy with seasonal flu. Figures also show that the infection fatality rate is much lower than it was thought in the early stages (even allowing for the increased testing) Let's hope we come thriugh this better than earlier in the year and get an early vaccine.

It’s not panic over a second wave. It’s an incompetent government that regularly makes wrong decisions but that’s for the other thread.

This is a good article which shows how badly the UK has performed compared to Germany. They started their response on January 1.

Germany Has Its Own Dr. Fauci—and Actually Follows His Advice

Christian Drosten helped spare his country from the worst of Covid. Now he’s worried about the second wave.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard:

Bolton 67 - down from 68. 2240 in month (record). 655 past week. 161 over 2 days (was 219). Pop score up 24 into the 1600 club at 1613 after just 3 days in the 1500, 1400 and 1300 clubs. So not getting worse.

Bury 46 - down from 51. 959 in month (record). 386 past week. 97 over 2 days (was 97). Pop score up 24 to 1338.

Manchester 119 - down from 182. Biggest drop in ages. 2714 in month (record). 1182 past week (record). 301 over 2 days (was 359). Pop score up 22 to 1271.

Oldham 49 - down fron 64. 1199 in month. 434 past week. 113 over 2 days (was 122). Pop score up 21 to 1741. Could soon overtake Blackburn which seems to be getting things under control. Lowest cases there today in a while at 14.

Rochdale 36 - down from 44. 993 in month. 377 past week. 80 over 2 days (was 90). Pop score up 16 to 1466.

Salford 48 - down from 62. 1137 in month. 414 past week 110 over 2 days (was 105). Pop score up 18 to 1146.

Stockport 29 - down from 39. 664 in month (record). 257 past week. 68 over 2 days (was 80). Pop score up 10 to take it into the 900 club at 902. Now no GM boroughs left in the 800 club.

Tameside 29 - down from 50 and lowest here in 10 days. 984 in month. 327 past week. 79 over 2 days (was 93). Pop score up 12 to 1295. 1300 club tomorrow.

Trafford 28 - down from 59 and best in GM today - though as you see only just! First time we had 3 under 30 on one day for two weeks. 578 in month (record but stillbest in GM). 262 past week (record - and enough to hand the rolling weekly title of best weekly numbers in GM JUST back to Stockport). 87 over 2 days (was 96). Pop score up 12 to 961 so it lost ground here on Stockport and is now 59 points adrift on this best in GM measure.

Wigan 35 - enormous drop from 109. Lowest here in two weeks. 1032 in month (record). 460 past week. 144 over 2 days (was 177). Pop score up 11 to 1023.