COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BigJoe#1]

Not the barrington letter again, it has been debunked, harold shipman is on there amongst lots of other crank names

Sweden is very different in every measure and now has higher deaths than the rest of the area

No Kaz, read the article... the mention of the Barrington letter is a reference, the article is quite interesting.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Interesting thread
There’s a retort below from a supposed colleague (mentions field epidemiology) but it doesn’t go any further:

No, indeed, it doesn't go any further, so it's impossible to know what his objections are. The MP's analysis is consistent with the wider scientific critique.

I got the link via Kit Yates at Bath Uni who's on Independent SAGE.

He's worth following, and if you're interested there's a tweet linking to the piece on C4 news which has a leading public health expert making a similar analysis.

Kit Yates (@Kit_Yates_Maths) on Twitter

 

[BigJoe#1]

I dont get why it matters

Because the figures shout that all these people were ill with Corona Virus when they weren't. They may have been mildly symptomatic but the weren't sent to hospital because they have Corona virus, and had they not been in hospital for other reasons they wouldnt have been counted as hospital admissions.... accuracy of data, that's why it matters :0).

 

[roubaixtuesday]

quite indisputable that the deaths and reinfection rates are far superior to the majority of the rest of Europe.

This is utter bollocks. Sweden has one of the very highest death rates in Europe. Their second wave seems a bit behind, but rising consistently for weeks now, and they're taking about imposing new restrictions.

Basically the article argues that Sweden is best as long as you ignore everything other than a six week period, and doesn't even consider the issues in translating their response to a country like the uk.

 

[BigJoe#1]

The evidence that gullible people will believe what is convenient rather than face hard truths does indeed mount up.

What qualifies people to be gullible? The fact that they are prepared to not accept the government information without a challenge?

Fair enough.... I think it's safe to say we have different opinions, which is healthy.

 

[BigJoe#1]

This is utter bollocks. Sweden has one of the very highest death rates in Europe. Their second wave seems a bit behind, but rising consistently for weeks now, and they're taking about imposing new restrictions.

Basically the article argues that Sweden is best as long as you ignore everything other than a six week period, and doesn't even consider the issues in translating their response to a country like the uk.

You will find the Swedish death rate was not that different the UK's when you look at it as a % of the population. Not really bollocks as you so eloquently put it!

 

[Tim of the Oak]

He should have taken more control of the dippers then it wouldnt have spread like wildfire

Tragic for the family

He spoke out against the Dippers and tried to stop their celebrations but faced enough a media shitstorm and gave way.

 

[somapop]

No, indeed, it doesn't go any further, so it's impossible to know what his objections are. The MP's analysis is consistent with the wider scientific critique.

I got the link via Kit Yates at Bath Uni who's on Independent SAGE.

He's worth following, and if you're interested there's a tweet linking to the piece on C4 news which has a leading public health expert making a similar analysis.

Kit Yates (@Kit_Yates_Maths) on Twitter

Thanks will do (and look at the link too).

 

[Healdplace]

This is an interesting set of numbers. It is showing the past week in the 10 GM boroughs and how the weekly Pop score (the cases numbers added up as reported per day v 100,000 population - making it even out and be relative to one another across differing borough populations).

This is how the government draw up watch lists on towns UK wide and decide on tier restrictions. Everywhere over 200 is considered a problem and will be on watch but the higher numbers are what usually lead to action,

Those in the top 10 worst tend to be over 400 (or higher 300s).

I record this number in my list each evening based on the day to day Pop Score increase (it can only ever go up unless 0 cases are added, of course).

Here is how this number has changed over those days for the GM boroughs.

The lower the number the better the borough is doing as it means fewer cases. Rising or falling is what they watch out for as it shows the trend.

Stockport was 307 now 274

Bolton was 346 now 360

Tameside was 346 now 343

Trafford was 370 now 320

Oldham was 396 now 379

Bury was 408 now 387

Salford was 417 now 408

Rochdale was 437 now 429

Wigan was 439 now 430

Manchester was 629 now 450



As you can see only Bolton has actually gone up in the past week. Manchester has fallen dramatically as the student case numbers have plummeted. Most places only have modest drops but Trafford and Stockport - traditionally the two best performers - have done best. Bury has fallen out of the 400s too.

These numbers certainly are going in the right direction. Thats the main thing to draw from them.

 

[kaz7]