gingerprince
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 5 Oct 2007
- Messages
- 1,154
I follow hospital admissions as number of tests/infections recorded is far more difficult to relate to first wave, when number of tests is not comparable to now. In addition, hospital admissions relates directly to those likely
to overwhelm NHS or die which is main position of government, eg protect NHS and save lives.
The simple graph NHS chap put up, showed admissions falling thru August, plateauing Early Sept then starting
to raise significantly thru 2nd/& 3rd week. It was reported, Sage on 26th Sept meeting, wanted more significant
to Tier 3. Obviously I have no idea what they may have been & what impact they would have had.Obviously, with any restrictions, there would have been a timelag. However, we are still facing a lockdown, the difference being we are now starting it with 11,000/12,000 Covid patients with the graph topline out of control with a x2 week lag
on the numbers too!
At the start of the 1st wave I posted an article from an experienced pandemic director. When you face pandemic, you need to act as you wouldnt normally, otherwise it simply overtakes you.You have to place measures that are stronger than you feel are necessary. You have to be bolder. Acting bolder on 26th for example, once restrictions end, you could see, maybe that it would have gone down or plateaued, without all new bold interventions. These interventions may have cost money & had some minor to moderate negative impacts too. However, if you find, without the interventions, the virus would have rocketed then you give yourself greater time to withstand that major impact.
We were too slow into the first lockdown and we have been too slow into second lockdown. We have still had to have them. If we had them earlier, prorata we would have less NHS out of work self isolating or with Covid 19. Better in hospital covid patient management means less deaths in some categories but can also mean longer in hospital stays. This can have adverse impact in overwhelming the NHS. Sadly more quick deaths, frees up beds. Not dying but having interventions for longer time periods doesnt.
Regional Lockdown management hasnt stopped the virus getting to where it is now, neither did the tier 1-3. This National Lite Lockdown may not either. We have 500k daily tests, complete with track and trace and yet some
areas are at peak first wave hospital admissions now.
Its going to be bleak for NHS staff, Care staff, Covid Patients and those on waiting lists. We all need to be more proactive in reducing contacts to an absolute minimum and please observe that now largely forgotten 2m rule..
to overwhelm NHS or die which is main position of government, eg protect NHS and save lives.
The simple graph NHS chap put up, showed admissions falling thru August, plateauing Early Sept then starting
to raise significantly thru 2nd/& 3rd week. It was reported, Sage on 26th Sept meeting, wanted more significant
to Tier 3. Obviously I have no idea what they may have been & what impact they would have had.Obviously, with any restrictions, there would have been a timelag. However, we are still facing a lockdown, the difference being we are now starting it with 11,000/12,000 Covid patients with the graph topline out of control with a x2 week lag
on the numbers too!
At the start of the 1st wave I posted an article from an experienced pandemic director. When you face pandemic, you need to act as you wouldnt normally, otherwise it simply overtakes you.You have to place measures that are stronger than you feel are necessary. You have to be bolder. Acting bolder on 26th for example, once restrictions end, you could see, maybe that it would have gone down or plateaued, without all new bold interventions. These interventions may have cost money & had some minor to moderate negative impacts too. However, if you find, without the interventions, the virus would have rocketed then you give yourself greater time to withstand that major impact.
We were too slow into the first lockdown and we have been too slow into second lockdown. We have still had to have them. If we had them earlier, prorata we would have less NHS out of work self isolating or with Covid 19. Better in hospital covid patient management means less deaths in some categories but can also mean longer in hospital stays. This can have adverse impact in overwhelming the NHS. Sadly more quick deaths, frees up beds. Not dying but having interventions for longer time periods doesnt.
Regional Lockdown management hasnt stopped the virus getting to where it is now, neither did the tier 1-3. This National Lite Lockdown may not either. We have 500k daily tests, complete with track and trace and yet some
areas are at peak first wave hospital admissions now.
Its going to be bleak for NHS staff, Care staff, Covid Patients and those on waiting lists. We all need to be more proactive in reducing contacts to an absolute minimum and please observe that now largely forgotten 2m rule..