COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[ballinio]

Putting up fences outside the halls in Fallowfield seems a tad excessive.

Is that to keep the students in ?

 

[Healdplace]

GM scores down a little but still running high. 197 less than yesterday at 2402. That is 230 less than this time last week. So going in the right direction.

Still up at 52% of the NW total - compared with about 37% 2 - 3 weeks ago when Merseyside was running high.

Merseyside's numbers were a bit up today. Liverpool at 258 - third straight rise and highest in 6 days. But half what it was around start of tier 3.

But Liverpool would have been fourth in GM today (and only just not third) whereas in recent days it would have been down with the best 2 or 3 in the county.

Wirral was up to 122 - its highest numbers in a week or so. and not that far below the 150/160 where it was on start of tier 3. Knowsley was better at 83 - around 100 down on its pre Tier 3 disaster and lowest in a few days.

 

[hilts]

Is that to keep the students in ?

Abdul’s is going to need some ladders.


I miss Abdul’s and now want a kebab

 

[Cassandra]

Still not equitable numbers on either the size of population or the severity and length of lockdowns.
For our new poster to suggest that Nicola has done better is disingenuous.

Right, I hadn't realised just how different the reporting processes were between the home nations, so day-to-day (and their 7 day aggregates) are not suitable for comparison, sorry about that. However, I imagine that you used the same data sources to make your original claim that the Scottish death rate was twice the English one, so it seems like we are both standing on a shoogly peg with that.

I think (or should that be hope?) that the longer term data based on death certificates and excess deaths will perhaps be a bit more equivalent across the nations (assuming some consistency in doctors deciding to add corona virus to death certificates).
There are government figures for the calculation by death certificate and Travelling Tabby also gives death rates based on excess deaths over the average.(attached below).

These do not show a great difference between England and Scotland with England showing, by death certificate, overall 921 deaths per million against 820 for Scotland and England showing 1,044 deaths per million based on excess deaths against Scotland's 959. So I suggest that there is no basis for suggesting that Scotland's death rate is double that of England, at least overall and short term comparisons appear to be both unreliable and inappropriate.

I have been careful throughout not to suggest that Nicola has done better than Boris, other than in her presentation and communication. The difference between the two policies has not seemed to me to be that great in reality or in their effect, but it does seem to me that it has been presented in a more understanding and natural way by Nicola and her medical director.

 

[nmc]

Johnson is an idiot. The virus is getting out of control. If the numbers now add up to a lockdown... well they‘ll probably be worse on Dec 2nd... so why make yourself a hostage to fortune and say the lockdown will ONLY be for 4 weeks. In early Dec Johnson will have a full scale Tory revolt and scientists telling him to extend the lockdown. I guess Cummings will be planning to shut Parliament early for Christmas to avoid any debate. There’s serious trouble ahead...

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

PHE does that, 28 days and a diagnosis. ONS doesn't. it has to be the main cause on the death certificate for it to count via ONS

If only.
In terms of reporting, the ONS data includes any death where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate – either directly, as an underlying cause or as a contributory cause. However, the guidance states that only illnesses that contributed to the death should be listed.

 

[Healdplace]

In GM most places were slightly up or slightly down. The biggest shift was Oldham which was well down. Manchester stayed above 400. And Wigan above 300. And only the usual four best boroughs below 200 and nobody especially low.

Though as expected 2 other boroughs joined the 4000 club so Greater Manchester now has 4 of the 7 places in that highest bracket.

Bury at 104 had a higher Pop Score rise than Bradford at 101 - which at 545 cases had the most in the UK today and has been steadily rising in the past week or two.

Leeds with 538 and Birmingham at 454 were next highest but their Pop scores only rose by 68 and 40 respectively showing those numbers are less terrible than they seem as these are two big boroughs with large populations that moderate the impact of those big totals over the numbers in places like Bradford where 545 is several times worse than the same number in a big city.

 

[Cityfan]

If only.
In terms of reporting, the ONS data includes any death where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate – either directly, as an underlying cause or as a contributory cause. However, the guidance states that only illnesses that contributed to the death should be listed.

Well I don't think people are going to put Covid on a death certificate if they don't think its contributory. In the middle of a covid pandemic there is a cause for these excess deaths and I suspect it's not chilblains.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Johnson is an idiot. The virus is getting out of control. If the numbers now add up to a lockdown... well they‘ll probably be worse on Dec 2nd... so why make yourself a hostage to fortune and say the lockdown will ONLY be for 4 weeks. In early Dec Johnson will have a full scale Tory revolt and scientists telling him to extend the lockdown. I guess Cummings will be planning to shut Parliament early for Christmas to avoid any debate. There’s serious trouble ahead...

Not sure about that.
Operation Moonshot has a high chance of lowering infection rates by mass localised testing. They've been trialing it in Liverpool since Monday.

 

[Ric]

Not sure about that.
Operation Moonshot has a high chance of lowering infection rates by mass localised testing. They've been trialing it in Liverpool since Monday.

Given that it missed over 50% of positive cases during a pilot scheme, I wouldn’t pin too many hopes on it.