COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[mrbelfry]

Well as they don't give us the test and trace raw data we don’t know and can't mark the government and it's various agencies including PHE. I suspect high school kids wearing masks from last Monday will be the main cause of any fall as it's happening within half a week after lock down on Thursday.

@inchy14 sorry gents. I should have added a smiley to my provocative post. I thought it was absurd enough for it to be clear.

Also of note is last weeks half term school holiday. Also tier 3 restricted visitors to care homes.

 

[Ric]

just out of curiosity, would people that have already tested positive be needing this ?

Don't think there's enough evidence yet about how long natural immunity lasts to say either way.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Quite strange that infection rates were so low given the daily numbers we see throughout Europe. Perhaps due to the trials running from July when things were a bit lower. Hopefully the pattern continues once we see higher numbers.

Perhaps people who volunteer for vaccine trials tend be be socially responsible so are likely to follow social distancing and much less likely to catch COVID as a result.

Maybe adverts should read

"ARE YOU A RECKLESS FOOL?

YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS IDIOTS LIKE YOU!

SIGN UP TODAY FOR A VACCINE TRIAL!!"

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Perhaps people who volunteer for vaccine trials tend be be socially responsible so are likely to follow social distancing and much less likely to catch COVID as a result.

Maybe adverts should read

"ARE YOU A RECKLESS FOOL?

YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS IDIOTS LIKE YOU!

SIGN UP TODAY FOR A VACCINE TRIAL!!"

lol

 

[Healdplace]

Case rates per 100,000, seven day rolling window, for 28 days up to and including 4th Nov:

View attachment 5221

The trends in those curves match the pattern of the weekly Pop Scores I post every night in here and the ones that continue past the cut off dates in those graphs show if anything in the past 5 days they have actually got better still.

The last two days GM numbers were best in weeks.

And the hospital data I post every evening shows the North West had a really good week and are no longer the one with the most people in hospital after having been throughout the second wave.

That is a real indicator regardless of the vagaries of testing as you cannot miscount or miss how many get sick enough to go into hospital.

 

[Healdplace]

What is interesting is that the improvements in the NW will likely be ascribed to the success of the government strategy by persuading them to come in on Merseyside first and it then improving and then eventually on Greater Manchester and a week or so later the same happening there.

But it is not that obvious that these things were not already in early stages of motion to decrease in the NW before such action was taken.

It will need a better analysis to be sure how much is down to tier 3 and we do really need to know what factors caused the downturn rather than just assuming Tier 3 did it.

What we do know is that none of the NW improvement has anything obvious to do with the lockdown imposed most recently.

Only if numbers fall even further over the next month and we start seeing most GM boroughs well below 100 day after day will we be able to say that. And if hospital numbers start to fall week to week not slow the increase.

But this is winter and many things will be misperceived as Covid or linked to illness and death even if it is not the only or actual cause when other things are going on. This is bound to happen in Winter in ways we did not have to such a degree in Summer or Spring.

So it is hard to predict what impact on numbers Lockdown 2 will have in any real sense in somewhere like the NW where improvement seems to have happened without it.

Hence we need to try to understand why it DID happen before lockdown 2 was imposed.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I have read that the Pfizer trials will stop when they reach 164 covid cases detected (we are on 94 identified cases as per the interim findings) - Anyone know if this is the point where they release the data in terms of the age ranges of those in the trials, their existing comorbidities and ethnic background etc so it can be peer reviewed?

With a starting base of 90% we have a lot of margin for this figure to go down and still be looking at an eventual way out of this.

 

[Two Gun Bob]

In your analogy, unless I am mistaken you talk about 'an eat by date'. Now you are talking about a sell by date which is a totally different thing as is a best before date. I have heard of mixed metaphors before but not a mixed analogy. So which is it, a best before date, an eat by date or a sell by date?

Apologies Ed, I did mean the use by date when in fact I had wrote the sell by date, yet a sell by date simply tells the store how long to display the product for inventory management purposes. It is not a safety date by any means so I thought your repose worthy of a direct answer as the three given dates on packets are as intrinsically different as chalk and cheese.

Use by date

As the name suggests, the advice is to actually use the food by the date listed. So often this is mainly fresh meat or cod loin, milk, fruit and veg ect ect. It doesn’t mean you can’t eat stuff after the use by date, but there’s a risk you could get scampoid food poisoning – so it’s often best to stick to the date.

best before date

Anything with a best before date is safe to consume after expiry. However the manufacturer will only guarantee the quality until the date So you shouldn’t get ill if a pack of crisps or tin of beans if out of date.

Sell by date

As already mentioned it simply tells the store how long to display the product for sale for inventory purposes. A little known trick here if you are out shopping and that is to always get the produce from the back of the shelf as these will be fresher. The supermarkets call it stock rotation and is a useful tool in their armoury to ensure constant levels of freshness and to avoid waste


I will have been on the keto for four weeks this Thursday to lower my weight during the second outbrake, as this virus remains somewhat selective with fat lads. Anyway that Hallibut was for my supper and so all I could have instead was a two egg omelette. You see you can't even have cod in batter on this dietry adventure as the batter has hidden carbs.

I had to just get the wrapper out of the outside bins as it smelt so bad to check the date mark again: Here we go

 

[EL APACHE TEVEZ]

What year will you be making that decision ?

In the year 2525

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

What is interesting is that the improvements in the NW will likely be ascribed to the success of the government strategy by persuading them to come in on Merseyside first and it then improving and then eventually on Greater Manchester and a week or so later the same happening there.

But it is not that obvious that these things were not already in early stages of motion to decrease in the NW before such action was taken.

It will need a better analysis to be sure how much is down to tier 3 and we do really need to know what factors caused the downturn rather than just assuming Tier 3 did it.

What we do know is that none of the NW improvement has anything obvious to do with the lockdown imposed most recently.

Only if numbers fall even further over the next month and we start seeing most GM boroughs well below 100 day after day will we be able to say that. And if hospital numbers start to fall week to week not slow the increase.

But this is winter and many things will be misperceived as Covid or linked to illness and death even if it is not the only or actual cause when other things are going on. This is bound to happen in Winter in ways we did not have to such a degree in Summer or Spring.

So it is hard to predict what impact on numbers Lockdown 2 will have in any real sense in somewhere like the NW where improvement seems to have happened without it.

Hence we need to try to understand why it DID happen before lockdown 2 was imposed.

Do you think immunity within the community could have something to do with it. Covid was booming in London in April but not as much now, Greater Manchester has had issues since the end of July. Could we be getting to the point where it could be on the downward slope with less options for covid to transfer into the population?