COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

Do you think immunity within the community could have something to do with it. Covid was booming in London in April but not as much now, Greater Manchester has had issues since the end of July. Could we be getting to the point where it could be on the downward slope with less options for covid to transfer into the population?

Yes it could. I have mused on that in here a few times in recent weeks. But its just surmise. I am not an expert on these things. So its just gut feeling really.

Not herd immunity as such but really the two community thing.

There are risk takers and there are cautious types.

The risk takers - mostly young and likely to not be very ill on catching it - will carry on regardless and do so more and more as time passes and nothing happens to them.

The cautious types might get less cautious as time passes out of a desire for normality but likely react most to the suggestion to lock down again as they understand they have the most risk.

So the net impact is more and more of the risk takers will catch it and likely not do so again in the near future. Which is bound to more quickly reduce than herd immunity based on the whole population the numbers out there putting themselves at risk who might be likely to catch it as time goes by.

So I think it is quite possible our wave 2 has peaked in the NW because of those months of high levels and - whilst this does not mean it will go away - as winter will naturally make numbers grow - we will see a slow decline through levels that seem higher than the Spring wave but are reducing from where they were a month or so ago.

But its all speculative and it depends on behaviour not changing which with the Christmas season looming it very likely is going to do in a big way.

And how that impacts the next few months is hard to predict.

As we know people can catch Covid twice - though it does not look like it is especially easy to do or we would be seeing many such cases now its winter rather than a handful.

 

[EL APACHE TEVEZ]

Yes it could. I have mused on that in here a few times in recent weeks. But its just surmise. I am not an expert on these things. So its just gut feeling really.

Not herd immunity as such but really the two community thing.

There are risk takers and there are cautious types.

The risk takers - mostly young and likely to not be very ill on catching it - will carry on regardless and do so more and more as time passes and nothing happens to them.

The cautious types might get less cautious as time passes out of a desire for normality but likely react most to the suggestion to lock down again as they understand they have the most risk.

So the net impact is more and more of the risk takers will catch it and likely not do so again in the near future. Which is bound to more quickly reduce than herd immunity based on the whole population the numbers out there putting themselves at risk who might be likely to catch it as time goes by.

So I think it is quite possible our wave 2 has peaked in the NW because of those months of high levels and - whilst this does not mean it will go away - as winter will naturally make numbers grow - we will see a slow decline through levels that seem higher than the Spring wave but are reducing from where they were a month or so ago.

But its all speculative and it depends on behaviour not changing which with the Christmas season looming it very likely is going to do in a big way.

And how that impacts the next few months is hard to predict.

As we know people can catch Covid twice - though it does not look like it is especially easy to do or we would be seeing many such cases now its winter rather than a handful.

How many cases as their been of people catching it twice ??

 

[Ric]

Then allow those with concerns to have them without ridicule

By all means, but I think they should be posted in this thread rather than in here. This thread is getting a bit derailed by these arguments.

 

[somapop]

I work on the assumption that news released is actually a bit behind the current situation i.e. they're maybe another step ahead of what were actually being told. Especially the way it's been delivered. Imagine it it goes major tits up the effects mentally on the world will be almost as bad as the virus.

To use a @Two Gun Bob type analogy it's like new improved toothpaste/washing powder/TV's, which are always the best ever...they tend to have at least another more improved step in hand at least,I fucking hope so.

Exactly what I was thinking.
We're probably behind the curve and the way it's been embraced and announced leaves me to believe that.
There was an epidemiologist on the news this morning suggesting this was an important as the atomic bomb.
Not sure of that analogy, but point remains there is a lot of positives around this.

 

[mosssideblue]

By all means, but I think they should be posted in this thread rather than in here. This thread is getting a bit derailed by these arguments.

Thanks Ric, wasn't even aware that thread existed :)

 

[doots]

How many cases as their been of people catching it twice ??

Good question.
I personally don't know of anyone catching it twice but plenty who've had it.

 

[Blue Llama]

You can have mine you sausage, and the wife said you can have hers too. You'll be like that Highlander fella who cant die.

No problem with death, I will die eventually so I am not going to worry about what I die from but I have a real desire not to die from something I don't have to die from.

 

[Ric]

Thanks Ric, wasn't even aware that thread existed :)

No problem. I'm going to tidy up this thread by moving some posts over to that one now.

 

[mosssideblue]

No problem. I'm going to tidy up this thread by moving some posts over to that one now.

It needs it as dont think it has been used for weeks, hence not really evident it existed

 

[somapop]

As an aside....any thoughts on the Chinese Vaccine and Sputniki (haven't Isreal just ordered several million doses?).
There's an issue with the Chinese one in Brazil but I haven't much about it yet...