@Healdplace since you seem to be able to get stats so efficiently, any way we can compare attrition rates year-on-year to see exactly what the difference is in terms of real deaths? I appreciate it'll not be that simple given fluctuations etc but are we actually seeing more deaths from this than the natural death rate?
I've never heard of a transport study before? Perhaps something for the very end of the drug life cycle, post-launch?Finally, transport studies are done, which demonstrate stability for limited periods of time outside of normal conditions eg high temperature excursions if sat on an airport in the sunshine in Texas for that bottle of pills, or perhaps a few hours at room temperature in this case. These can include freeze/thaw cycles as that can affect product performance more than temperature change per se.
Now some speculation: This vaccine has not had very long in development at all, so stability data and understanding will be much more limited than usual. There may be almost none for some manufacturing sites. Also, it might be very difficult to characterise degradation for a long RNA strand - I doubt it is possible to precisely characterise, and I've no idea what criteria might be used. It might be that -80 is used because of the difficulty of defining how much degradation is acceptable, or to standardise between sites of manufacture.
there are indications in other sources that the current deaths from ALL respiratory causes (inc. Covid-19) is currently stable and that excess deaths in the UK from all causes is still within 1 s.d., for the time of year. That was up to end of Oct i think, so things can change.
Cheers @roubaixtuesday. Interesting stuff, another morbid rhetorical question would be, given the average age of COVID/COVID-related death, what impact will this have on the average age of people worldwide?Data here. Excess deaths are rising in line with COVID deaths
Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics
The latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-18) pandemic from the Office for National Statistics and other sources.www.ons.gov.uk
All those idiots who didnt vote by mail xWeird that now Trump has been voted out, new cases are surging (at least locally) How can that be? Everyone knows it was a democratic plot to take down Trump
Shit595 all settings deaths
UK now topped 50,000 Covid deaths at 50, 365.
I've never heard of a transport study before? Perhaps something for the very end of the drug life cycle, post-launch?
I'm not sure what the application would be in the case of temperature deviations. That would not comply with GMP requirements and would likely lead to the loss of that material or writing a technical memo to assess the impact of the temperature fluctuation. Certainly that material would not enter patients.
I'm by no means an expert in RNA/DNA but I'd have thought the RNA/DNA would be incredibly stable, the loss of the lipid capsule 'vehicle' into the cell would be far more damaging and indicative of degradation. Those tests are fairly easy to do using UV spectroscopy.
Isn’t it possibly, that the down side is always unforgiving? If the ‘scientists’ and the government said it’s probably over and we will just see the same seasonal respiratory deaths we always see, and then it wasn’t, big trouble I suspect.That Dr Yeadon sells his argument well and I can see why he thinks as he does.
And goodness me if he is right the world can celebrate making itself bankrupt for nothing.
But that's the question. One country not seeing this, I can get. Many countries missing these facts I can get too if driven by ideology, just about. But every country sheepishly believing the opposite is hard to get your head around.
They must all be guided by scientists who broadly think the opposite. Why not one or two with the opposing view having had influence? And based on experience of things like the 3 waves of the 1918/1919 killer flu we SEEM to have obvious evidence that even when a virus runs unchecked as we had no real way to fight it then it can return seasonally in waves and be worse, which he seems to be denying then I can understand the reservations too.
I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle and both sides here are right to a degree. That way more have had it/are immune than realised - that as a result it likely is generally waning outside localised spikes - not getting worse widely - but that it may not yet be all but literally over as he seems to think.
Much as I would dearly love him to be right.