COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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brian the blue

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The % effectiveness is reported as a point estimate eg 70%.

What that means is that if 100 people on the placebo arm got covid, 30 on the active did. So if 100 people would get the disease unvaccinated, 70 of those would have been saved by the vaccine, hence 70% effective.

You're absolutely right that you can't actually give a precise estimate with such relatively small numbers. A confidence interval, calculated statistically is used. For the oxford jab, the confidence interval is 54% - 80%, the estimate of the real efficacy. This means we can be 95% sure the true efficacy is in the range 54-80%. Even a 54% effective vaccine is more than good enough to be worthwhile, so we can be near certain this is sufficiently effective. We can't be certain what the exact figure is.

Does that help?

Ah okay cheers.

Yeah I'm clueless about all this so was wondering if I was massively missing the point in my thinking.

My mum who's in her late 50's has signed up to a vaccine trial, whilst that's great, im not entirely sure she'd be of any value for testing its effectiveness as if she was actually given the vaccine, she'd only be going on her daily walk for an hour and doing her weekly food shop in the supermarket. Suppose my thinking is if a load of people who were given the vaccine lived their lives like this throughout the trial, it's not really going to tell anyone anything about the vaccine as they will most likely never come into contact with the virus.
 

somapop

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I’ve got friends in government, I’ll take this idea, make it worse and charge £50 mil. I think that’s how it works ;-)
Ok...we'll do a threeway (employs Kenneth Williams GIF) with you and Tolm.
That's already £16.6 million each up from £10 million five mins ago.

I know someone in Spain...nowt to with anything 'sciencey' or medical, but he'll add another £40 million (coz stuff) so we're up to £90 million total which is now £22.5 million each.
 

roubaixtuesday

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Ah okay cheers.

Yeah I'm clueless about all this so was wondering if I was massively missing the point in my thinking.

My mum who's in her late 50's has signed up to a vaccine trial, whilst that's great, im not entirely sure she'd be of any value for testing its effectiveness as if she was actually given the vaccine, she'd only be going on her daily walk for an hour and doing her weekly food shop in the supermarket. Suppose my thinking is if a load of people who were given the vaccine lived their lives like this throughout the trial, it's not really going to tell anyone anything about the vaccine as they will most likely never come into contact with the virus.

That's absolutely correct - *but*

1. Enough do come into contact to give a statistically meaningful measure of effectiveness and

2. You need tens of thousands vaccinated to assess the safety of the jab, so those who don't come into contact still give useful data
 

BlueHammer85

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If you don't get the prick, consider yourself a right prick.

I might get this done on a T-shirt or charge Boris £20m for the slogan?

There's something quite satisfying about the word prick, no?

Don't hear it much these days, when I hear or say it, I find myself transported to a Goodfellas movie or a NYC cabbie dishing it out.

Prick
 

brian the blue

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That's absolutely correct - *but*

1. Enough do come into contact to give a statistically meaningful measure of effectiveness and

2. You need tens of thousands vaccinated to assess the safety of the jab, so those who don't come into contact still give useful data
Ah thanks.

And very true regarding the 2nd point. Didn't really think of it like that.
 

Healdplace

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England hospital deaths are 353 - exactly same as yesterday, It was 282 last week.

But these two catch up days from weekend are usually the worst.

Last week they totalled 612. This week 706.
 

artfuldodger

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Ah okay cheers.

Yeah I'm clueless about all this so was wondering if I was massively missing the point in my thinking.

My mum who's in her late 50's has signed up to a vaccine trial, whilst that's great, im not entirely sure she'd be of any value for testing its effectiveness as if she was actually given the vaccine, she'd only be going on her daily walk for an hour and doing her weekly food shop in the supermarket. Suppose my thinking is if a load of people who were given the vaccine lived their lives like this throughout the trial, it's not really going to tell anyone anything about the vaccine as they will most likely never come into contact with the virus.
Which vaccine is it? I’m in my late 50s and I’m on a trial. But they wanted to know about my life style, who I came in to contact with, my family make up. Plus the area I lived. All those factors made me likely to come into contact with someone with the virus. They also recruited my 18 year old daughter, who uses public transport, works in a school etc.
 

Healdplace

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84 of todays deaths were from the NW. There is always a bigger catch up from weekend in NW due to under reporting then.

94 were from the Midlands and 85 from Yorkshire. London also had its highest at 34.
 

Healdplace

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Other details of England 353 hospital deaths :

Aged 20 - 39 (5), 40 - 59 (19), 60 - 79 (134) 80 + (195)

Most NW deaths were 17 in Blackpool hospital and 14 in East Lancashire.

Doncaster had 15, Birmingham 12 and Derby 11.

There has been a trend towards more younger deaths in recent days I fear.
 
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