COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[willipp]

I do wonder how they are going to vaccinate everyone, apparently they have done 175000 at that rate they said it would take 7 years to get to everyone. Now I know there will be more vaccination centres but it’s mind boggling when you have to do 60/70 million people!

How many do we need to vaccinate though for it to really make a difference. The old, vulnerable, front line workers etc, surely once they have it rolled out then that will be enough to allow some normality to return.

 

[Del_Bosque]

The ONS data says about 1% of the population of England had Covid last week. If it in most cases lasts 2 or 3 weeks and is as infective as it appears to be (all members of my family household who caught it did so within days of each other so likely mainly did so from each other) and these numbers keep happening has anyone now got a reasonable estimate of how many people of the 58 million or so have actually had it over the past 9 months?

Because more people in my family now definitely have or had what almost certainly was it in the first wave but were not tested then to think we ought to be near the point where more than half the nation has by now.

Is there going to be a tipping point where numbers start to be self limiting?

This was from the ONS Antibody survey from December

Main points​

• In England, an estimated 8.7% (95% confidence interval: 8.2% to 9.3%) of people would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in November, suggesting they had the infection in the past; there is substantial variation in antibody positivity between regions, from 12.8% (95% confidence interval: 11.4% to 14.5%) in London compared with 3.9% (95% confidence interval: 2.8% to 5.3%) in the South Wes

 

[Healdplace]

I do wonder how they are going to vaccinate everyone, apparently they have done 175000 at that rate they said it would take 7 years to get to everyone. Now I know there will be more vaccination centres but it’s mind boggling when you have to do 60/70 million people!

That is why the Oxford vaccine matters. It is much easier to administer and will likely quadruple the numbers possible in a day. Especially as we have them already produced.

 

[Healdplace]

This was from the ONS Antibody survey from December

Main points​

• In England, an estimated 8.7% (95% confidence interval: 8.2% to 9.3%) of people would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in November, suggesting they had the infection in the past; there is substantial variation in antibody positivity between regions, from 12.8% (95% confidence interval: 11.4% to 14.5%) in London compared with 3.9% (95% confidence interval: 2.8% to 5.3%) in the South Wes

But that cannot be the whole story. There are clearly far more people who have had it than that in metro areas where the majority who did were never tested.

Many more than 8% of my family have or probably had but do not know as never tested because they got over it.

I guess if the numbers start to 'inexplicably' tail off we will know.

 

[Ban-jani]

How many do we need to vaccinate though for it to really make a difference. The old, vulnerable, front line workers etc, surely once they have it rolled out then that will be enough to allow some normality to return.

40% and it’ll start to fade away out of existence.

The top 20% most vulnerable done and we’ll be able to get back to reasonable normality I think.

 

[Len Rum]

I don't think anyone working there expected it to be more than just the two doses to be approved as it would be too risky to back the one that emerged by accident without more data.

But the two things can be dealt with separately surely?

Yes, but the one dose/one dose shots which had more or less full testing had a much lower efficacy of 62%.
Whilst this is still better than normal flu vaccines it's a lot less than the efficacy of their half/one dose shots and the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.
Perhaps they're aiming to roll out the higher efficacy shot ratio - that's the one most people would want if available.

 

[Blue Maverick]

40% and it’ll start to fade away out of existence.

The top 20% most vulnerable done and we’ll be able to get back to reasonable normality I think.

Whilst I get that I’m just thinking about travel etc, can5 see other countries letting you in unless you’ve had it, so will you end up paying private to get ahead of the queue.

 

[Tonster]

I do wonder how they are going to vaccinate everyone, apparently they have done 175000 at that rate they said it would take 7 years to get to everyone. Now I know there will be more vaccination centres but it’s mind boggling when you have to do 60/70 million people!

They've only just started with first roll outs. Next is with GP's surgeries, vaccination centres etc. They did 20million + flu jabs in a few weeks. We don't need to do anything like that amount you stated. Kids under 16 for a start aren't being done which accounts for about 12 million people, nor pregnant women. No reason to think we can't have all the vulnerable and all 50+ complete sometime around Easter.

 

[Healdplace]

Yes, but the one dose/one dose shots which had more or less full testing had a much lower efficacy of 62%.
Whilst this is still better than normal flu vaccines it's a lot less than the efficacy of their half/one dose shots and the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.
Perhaps they're aiming to roll out the higher efficacy shot ratio - that's the one most people would want if available.

I think if its a choice between 62% now and 90% later I would not wait an indefinite period - especially as the further tests might lower it anyway.

It will be an issue of confidence - no doubt - but the most vulnerable will rightly get the ones that work best. The younger you are the less potency you probably need anyway. A modest protection will likely stop you getting sick enough to go into hospital which the data suggests was true of Oxford even if they were in the 38% not protected from catching it.

It may turn out that whether a vaccine works or not has less to do with who made it and all to do with how good your body is anyway at fighting off diseases. No vaccine ever works perfectly but they still save many lives. But they all basically tell your body to ward it off.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Absolute class from city. Love them.

It’s a Wonderful Life is on Film 4 too.

Things will get a lot better in a few months time.