COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[roubaixtuesday]

Perhaps they're aiming to roll out the higher efficacy shot ratio - that's the one most people would want if available.

Yes, this is likely exactly what is being considered.

Is the data on the lower dose sufficient to justify approving it. If not, is it better to wait for more data than approve the higher dose right now, given that a short delay could result in a significantly better vaccine.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Love this Gree Day parody...

 

[worsleyweb]

Yea so did I . It’s happening I’m confident.

what posts last night??

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Expectation still seems to be for approval this year. The complication with the dose seems to be the delaying factor.

The higher dose has sufficient efficacy for approval but the Lancet paper looked pretty convincing that the lower dose was near certain more efficacious. The dataset was however very small for the lower dose.

I've heard (insider gossip only) that a further cut of data has been submitted, which would make sense and explain the delay. If true, it must be consistent with the earlier data, or they'd be obliged to make it public. Events will be coming through fast now given the extent of the second wave.

It's worth putting this "delay" in context. So far it's been under review for 21 days. A normal review takes 18 months!

It's also worth considering the key part of the efficacy data: there was not a single case of severe disease on any dose in the trial (10 severe cases on the placebo). So regardless of the headlines on % efficacy, it's clear that mass vaccination with this would stop the pandemic dead as a public health issue.

If it is approved, we can, I think, be hopeful of near normality for summer next year. If not, it will take a lot longer, and be dependent on supply and logistics for the harder to deliver pfizer, moderna jabs.

I guess there’s a slim chance that the Oxford / AZ vaccine could be cleared by the EMA first, who don’t seem to have made an issue about efficacy (given that it is over 50%).

 

[Healdplace]

Serology (blood antibody) studies have been done to assess this.

First wave was <10%, I doubt it will be as high as 20% yet.

Here's last info from ONS.

Analysis of antibodies evidence from individuals who have had the infection in the past show: in England, an estimated 6.9% (95% confidence interval: 6.3% to 7.4%) of people would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in October, suggesting they had the infection in the past; there is substantial variation in antibody positivity between regions, from 10.8% (95% confidence interval: 9.3% to 12.5%) in London compared with 3.1% (95% confidence interval: 2.1% to 4.4%) in the South West.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey: characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England and antibody data for the UK - Office for National Statistics

Characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19 from the COVID-19 Infection Survey; antibody data by UK country, and region and occupation for England.

www.ons.gov.uk

Yes but it is surely going to be higher in metro areas. Simply because it must be much easier to catch it.

So the average might be 20% but it could be 2% somewhere and 42% somewhere else.

If you catch it and barely get sick would you even retain antibodies that were not really needed? If they had natural immunity in some other way.

Could well be completely wrong but it just feels like way more have had it than anyone has counted. Even allowing for the had a cold and now believes it was Covid numbers that do obviously exist.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Yes but it is surely going to be higher in metro areas. Simply because it must be much easier to catch it.

So the average might be 20% but it could be 2% somewhere and 42% somewhere else.

If you catch it and barely get sick would you even retain antibodies that were not really needed? If they had natural immunity in some other way.

Could well be completely wrong but it just feels like way more have had it than anyone has counted

The antibodies are what clears it from your system, no antibodies you would never recover.

It's very unlikely high percentages have had it, or you'd see an effect on transmission - rates would come down. Bergamo in Italy I think had something like 60% hit in 1st wave. Something like 0.5% of the population died - that would be what, 10,000+ in Manchester (depending what's included in the population), 300,000 for the UK. We're nowhere near those death figures, thankfully.

You're absolutely right that there will be big differences across the country.

I guess all this is complicated by the fact that noone knows how long antibody response lasts.

From catastrophe to community immunity: Bergamo hopes for ‘natural vaccine’

Italian city synonymous with tragedy of first wave is now seeing fewer COVID-19 cases than wider Lombardy region.

www.google.com

 

[artfuldodger]

How many do we need to vaccinate though for it to really make a difference. The old, vulnerable, front line workers etc, surely once they have it rolled out then that will be enough to allow some normality to return.

Just the over 80s would make a massive difference.

 

[give it to gordon]

Just walked into the petrol station to pay out of the 10 customers only 50% had masks on. All the under 30's didnt. It was like walking into liverpool fc training ground !

 

[Healdplace]

Nice to see that Canada - who have ordered enough vaccines to cover their population 5 times - says it will make surplus available to others.

Hope we agree to do the same as protecting the third world who cannot afford to pay big money and will need help to administer is as important as saving ourselves.

Rich countries should be agreeing a joint strategy now to help vaccinate the world.

Either way we should be making this kind of pledge ourselves.

 

[Ban-jani]

It'll never "fade away out of existence" unfortunately, we'll have to live with it like many other diseases, most likely as a winter illness, what will happen though, is that the impact will become less. It may well be that vulnerable will need booster jabs or similar on a relatively regular basis, but we won't know that for some time (could be years).

Yeah maybe not, irrelevant to day to day life is what I meant.