COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[aguero93:20]

Just ran out for more ice cream.

Not happy with infecting everyone at Wembley so.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Yeah it’s much worse than Ebola and SARS. The kill rate of Ebola means it has a relatively low R0 as it’s infectious once symptoms appear.

So for 80% it’s a bit crap but not too bad.

For 20% it means a respirator and intensive care. Put it this way, for a home sell out of 55,000, say Madrid, that would mean 11,000 needing intensive care and 550 dying.

It’s not bad odds but how many would like to go to a game if they were told that 550, pretty much at random, we’re going to be marched out, lined up against a wall and shot?

And if the WHO are correct, it means 1,320 die for that sample size.

This whole episode could be the wake up call the world needs to start seriously looking for a vaccine to treat any and all viral infections. Bad though this most certainly is, in a way, we will have "got away with it" with only a few million people dead.

But can you imagine just how unthinkably terrible this would be if it was ebola-like, with an 80% mortality rate and a long, symptomless incubation period, meaning high transmission rates of like 2 to 3? It could wipe out half the world's population. And we are just 1 mutation away from this happening any time.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Try not to worry too much mate, fear can be another virus in itself, the people infected is tiny right now. Im waiting until we have a full on armagedon situation till i start changing my life.

Change now and help prevent that situation?

Today - roughly 100 cases
Day 3 - 200
Day 6 - 400
Day 9 - 800
Day 12 - 1,600
Day 15 - 3,200
Day 18 - 6,400
Day 21 - 12,800
Day 24 - 25,600
Day 27 - 51,200
Day 30 - 102,400
Day 33 - 204,800
Day 36 - 409,600
Day 39 - 819,200
Day 42 - 1,638,400
Day 45 - 3,276,800
Etc

How long do you want to leave it? Health professionals are not issuing advice for a laugh, they want people to follow it. Changes should be made now to slow that down. By everyone.

Of the roughly 60,000 cases that have been resolved, 3,400 died. The rest are active, so I don’t really see why they should be used in the death rate calculations - they are ongoing, we don’t know if they will survive or die. So almost 6% are dying so far. Though I admit I don’t know the correct way to work out death rate, this is just a way that makes sense to me in my mind. The figures may be inaccurate of course, but we can only work off what we’ve got.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Thought that may be the case mate, we are still going though and will have a look round Sorrento instead ... Thanks for the heads up

it’ll be empty and largely shut.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Change now and help prevent that situation?

Today - roughly 100 cases
Day 3 - 200
Day 6 - 400
Day 9 - 800
Day 12 - 1,600
Day 15 - 3,200
Day 18 - 6,400
Day 21 - 12,800
Day 24 - 25,600
Day 27 - 51,200
Day 30 - 102,400
Day 33 - 204,800
Day 36 - 409,600
Day 39 - 819,200
Day 42 - 1,638,400
Day 45 - 3,276,800
Etc

How long do you want to leave it? Health professionals are not issuing advice for a laugh, they want people to follow it. Changes should be made now to slow that down. By everyone.

Of the roughly 60,000 cases that have been resolved, 3,400 died. The rest are active, so I don’t really see why they should be used in the death rate calculations - they are ongoing, we don’t know if they will survive or live. So almost 6% are dying so far. Though I admit I don’t know the correct way to work out death rate, this is just a way that makes sense to me in my mind. The figures may be inaccurate of course, but we can only work off what we’ve got.

Spot on. The very unfortunate fact is that in all likelihood, millions of people in the UK are going to get infected. The best we can hope for is that this takes a long time so that there are enough intensive care beds for the unfortunate ones who need them, when they need them. That means we MUST slow the spread down and that means extra vigilance on personal hygiene, hand washing, staying at home if feeling unwell etc. If we don't do this, then there's going to be thousands all needing intensive care all at the same, and we simply will not be able to cope.

 

[inchy14]

I’m due to go to San Diego in July for comic con (yep I’m a geek) if it’s cancelled like Schwarzenegger has just done to a big convention I’m still going to San Diego for 6 nights, unless BA specifically cancel my flight and refund me.

I'm off to Cyprus next Saturday for their marathon and then a few days rest and recovery (AKA on the piss) i'll still travel if it's cancelled. Then Hungary 2 weeks after that, again i'll still be going unless cancelled as i won't get my cash back for just not travelling. They'll be millions like that all over the world.

 

[Blue Maverick]

I'm off to Cyprus next Saturday for their marathon and then a few days rest and recovery (AKA on the piss) i'll still travel if it's cancelled. Then Hungary 2 weeks after that, again i'll still be going unless cancelled as i won't get my cash back for just not travelling. They'll be millions like that all over the world.

Travel companies will go under if governments bring in travel bans, so no way they are going to stop us otherwise they’d have stopped Italian flights in and out.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

How's elbow touching going to help instead of handshakes? Still skin touching, gets on your clothes, scratch your arm etc. Just stupid.

 

[grunge]

How's elbow touching going to help instead of handshakes? Still skin touching, gets on your clothes, scratch your arm etc. Just stupid.

try touching your face with your elbow!.

it gets in via mucus membranes, so mouth, nose, eyes etc

while people will inevitably touch there elbows with hands it reduces the risk.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Spot on. The very unfortunate fact is that in all likelihood, millions of people in the UK are going to get infected. The best we can hope for is that this takes a long time so that there are enough intensive care beds for the unfortunate ones who need them, when they need them. That means we MUST slow the spread down and that means extra vigilance on personal hygiene, hand washing, staying at home if feeling unwell etc. If we don't do this, then there's going to be thousands all needing intensive care all at the same, and we simply will not be able to cope.

Exactly and this is what I’m trying to get people to understand. The advice being issued to us is NOT to prevent us getting it. We are going to get it, most likely. The advice is to try to drag it out to prevent a situation where hundreds of thousands need a hospital bed and there’s barely any free. But people are thinking hand washing 20-30 times a day is silly. People have got the wrong mindset, we are going to get ill. Accept it. But do your bit for the nation and for those working day and night for the NHS. Let’s come together with a shared goal and quit with the “I’ll do what I want” mentality. It’s not going to help anybody. Those that aren’t making changes now to their hygiene, working from home (if possible), avoiding public transport (where possible), what will their opinion be when an elderly loved one contracts it and there’s no respirator for him/her? We need to drag this out.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Yeah it’s much worse than Ebola and SARS. The kill rate of Ebola means it has a relatively low R0 as it’s infectious once symptoms appear.

So for 80% it’s a bit crap but not too bad.

For 20% it means a respirator and intensive care. Put it this way, for a home sell out of 55,000, say Madrid, that would mean 11,000 needing intensive care and 550 dying.

It’s not bad odds but how many would like to go to a game if they were told that 550, pretty much at random, we’re going to be marched out, lined up against a wall and shot?

And if the WHO are correct, it means 1,320 die for that sample size.

The majority that die are elderly and those with other ailments. So that probably isn't a fair reflection as these people are likley to make up a very small proportion of a football crowd.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The majority that die are elderly and those with other ailments. So that probably isn't a fair reflection as these people are likley to make up a very small proportion of a football crowd.

Oh that's alright then???

 

[Blue Hefner]

“Why did they close the Louvre in Paris, the people that go there and old”

That is more or less what some silly cow said to me at a kids language class this morning - where to start.....

 

[Blue Til Death]

it’ll be empty and largely shut.

No it won't mate, happy if nobody else is there though

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

try touching your face with your elbow!.

it gets in via mucus membranes, so mouth, nose, eyes etc

while people will inevitably touch there elbows with hands it reduces the risk.

Just don't touch people then, it's nonsensical.

 

[lancs blue]

Panic buy update - the local Aldi has bog rolls stacked floor to ceiling so no worries there. Curiously the shelves have been stripped of tinned spaghetti hoops and tinned sweetcorn - weird.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Panic buy update - the local Aldi has bog rolls stacked floor to ceiling so no worries there. Curiously the shelves have been stripped of tinned spaghetti hoops and tinned sweetcorn - weird.

you mean stripped as in panic bought or stripped as in they're holding the stock back to avoid needless shortages?

 

[lancs blue]

you mean stripped as in panic bought or stripped as in they're holding the stock back to avoid needless shortages?

Bought, the empty boxes were still there.

 

[grunge]

Panic buy update - the local Aldi has bog rolls stacked floor to ceiling so no worries there. Curiously the shelves have been stripped of tinned spaghetti hoops and tinned sweetcorn - weird.

Saw a post this morning about Sainburys in Cheadle being totally out of bog rolls this morning.

 

[lancs blue]

Saw a post this morning about Sainburys in Cheadle being totally out of bog rolls this morning.

Well that's Cheadle for you,we do things differently on the Fylde coast. ;-)